The season may have been picked off at first

I know you can never play the whole "alternate universe" scenario. You can't say "That double play killed us because the next batter hit a double" etc etc. You don't know how a pitcher would throw differently or how the defense would be set up if a play unfolded in a different way.

That being said, I am only human and when Ryan Kalish got picked off and that was promptly followed by Victor Martinez's double that would have scored Kalish... I grumbled "How could you get picked off in the 9th inning of a one run game with the big bats coming up?"

The Red Sox are 8 games back with 14 to play. The Yankees clobbered the Orioles with Sabathia becoming a 20 game winner... the Rays rallied against the Angels and won in extra innings... and the Red Sox would have to be perfect to make even a remote chance to win.

If the Red Sox won their final 14 games... went 14-0 and played like a juggernaut... the Yankees would just have to go 7-8 and the Rays would just have to go 8-8 and the Red Sox would STILL be eliminated.

So no... it doesn't look good.
But let's update the tally anyway.

DODGED A BULLET GAMES - 49

April 4 - 9-7 win against Yankees (On Opening Night, the Red Sox overcome a 5-1 Yankee lead with a game tying HR by Pedroia and a go ahead passed ball.)
April 10 - 8-3 win against Kansas City (Beckett out pitches Zack Greinke and nearly gets decapitated by a line drive.)
April 14 - 6-3 win in Minnesota. (Okajima gets Morneau to pop up with the bases loaded in the 7th and Papelbon wiggled out of a 9th inning jam.)
April 20 - 7-6 win against Texas. (Darnell McDonald introduces himself to Boston with an 8th inning game tying homer and a walk off hit in the 9th.)
April 21 - 8-7 win against Texas. (The Red Sox were down 4-0 early only to win it on Youk's 2 out 11th inning double.)
April 23 - 4-3 win against Baltimore. (The Sox blow a 3-0 lead but win it on Adrian Beltre's bases loaded walk.)

April 24 - 7-6 win against Baltimore. (The Red Sox score 6 in the 7th and hold off a late Baltimore comeback attempt.)
April 26 - 13-12 win at Toronto. (The Sox blow an early 5-0 lead but hang on for dear life in a slugfest.)
April 27 - 2-1 win at Toronto. (Buchholz holds the Jays down for 8 but it takes a bases loaded walk in the 8th to go ahead.)
April 28 - 2-0 win at Toronto. (Daniel Bard wiggles out of trouble in the 8th to help Lester shut down the Blue Jays and finish the sweep.)
May 4 - 5-1 win against the Angels. (Juan Rivera misplays Jeremy Hermedia's 2 out flyball into a 3 run game winning double)
May 5 - 3-1 win against the Angels. (Papi and Beltre homer and the Sox hang on despite squandering many potential rallies.)
May 6 - 11-6 win against the Angels. (Dice-K puts the Red Sox in a 4-0 hole before they even bat. The Sox bats respond.)
May 10 - 7-6 win against the Blue Jays. (Sox blow an early 2-0 lead, take advantage of some errors and hang on.)
May 18 - 7-5 win in New York. (Sox climb back from a 5-1 hole. A day after hitting a walk off homer, Marcus Thames drops a fly ball to start the winning rally for the Sox.)
May 25 - 2-0 win in Tampa. (Big Papi supplies all the offense as Papelbon wiggles out of a 9th inning jam.)
May 29 - 1-0 win against Kansas City. (Zack Greinke holds the Sox to one run, but they make it stick)

June 1 - 9-4 win against Oakland. (Lackey puts the Sox in a 4-0 hole but Victor Martinez goes 5-5 and the Sox score 9 runs late.)
June 2 - 6-4 win against Oakland. (Dice-K puts the Sox in a 3-0 hole before they come to bat, but come back thanks to Papi's homer.)

June 8 - 3-2 win at Cleveland. (With Papelbon unavailable, Okajima, Ramirez and Bard hang on to make a winner out of Wakefield.)

June 19 - 5-4 win against the Dodgers. (Sox make 4 errors, blow a late lead and let Manny homer, but they win it in the bottom of the 9th on a Pedroia single.)
June 20 - 2-0 win against the Dodgers. (Dodgers blow an early bases loaded scoring opportunity and allow Buchholz to settle down for the win.)

June 24 - 13-11 win in Colorado. (The bullpen lets up 9 runs in 5 innings, but Pedroia homers 3 times including with 2 outs in the 10th to win a wild and stupid game.)
June 26 - 4-2 win in San Francisco. (An injury running the bases takes Buchholz out in the second, but the bullpen and Mike Cameron's bat and glove win the game.)
July 2 - 3-2 win against the Orioles. (Wakefield gets the win and J.D. Drew homers twice, but it is Nava's 2 out 8th inning bloop that landed between three fielders that breaks the tie.)

July 11 - 3-2 win in Toronto. (Jesse Litch took a no hitter into the 6th but back to back homers by McDonald and Big Papi win the game.)
July 17 - 3-2 win against Texas. (Youk ties the game in the 9th off of Cliff Lee and wins it in the 11th with a sacrifuce fly)
July 19 - 2-1 win at Oakland. (Beltre homers and Dice-K holds on to the win.)
July 22 - 8-6 win at Seattle. (Lackey lost a no hit bid in the 8th and the Mariners scored 5 in the 9th to tie before the Sox won in 13)
July 23 - 2-1 win at Seattle. (Bill Hall's barely fair homer gives the Sox the win on Beckett's return.)

July 26 - 6-3 win in Anaheim. (Papi homers twice and Buccholz and Papelbon each wiggle out of jams to get the win.)
July 27 - 4-2 win in Anaheim. (Jed Lowrie's 2 run 7th inning double gives the Sox the lead and makes a winner out of John Lackey. )

July 28 - 7-3 win in Anaheim. (Youk ties the game in the 7th with a homer and Scutaro wins it with an 8th inning grand slam to sweep the Angels.)
July 31 - 5-4 win against Detrout. (Big Papi hits a 3 run walk off double to crush the Tigers in the 9th.)
August 1 - 4-3 win against Detroit. (Sox blow a 3 run 9th inning lead but the Tigers throw away a 9th inning sacrifice bunt to give the Sox the win.

August 3 - 3-1 win against Cleveland. (Lowell homers on his first pitch back and plays sparkling defense to preserve the win.)

August 6 - 6-3 win in Yankee Stadium. (Cervelli drops an easy pop up, setting up the winning rally for the Sox.)
August 9 - 2-1 win in Yankees Stadium. (Marcus Thames' bid for a game tying homer hits the top of the wall as Lester, Bard and Papelbon hold on for the win.)

August 10 - 7-5 win in Toronto. (The Sox blow a late lead but Mike Lowell puts them on top for good with an 8th inning homer.)
August 14 - 3-1 win in Texas. (Lester wiggles out of jams and a botched hit and run play kills a potential 9th inning Texas rally.)
August 18 - 7-5 win against the Angels. (The Sox fell behind 5-2, but came back with Beltre's homer, a wild pitch, a hit by pitch and some great Nava defense)
August 21 - 5-4 win against Toronto. (Jed Lowrie hits a walk off 11th inning homer, masking a come back rally by the Jays against Dice-K.)
August 23 - 6-3 win against Seattle. (Scuatro drives in the go ahead runs and Lackey throws a gritty 8 innings)
August 25 - 5-3 win against Seattle. (Beckett throws a shutout into the 7th and the Sox rally for 4 in the 6th in the rain and fog, including a strange RBI single off the pitcher by Beltre.)
August 27 - 3-1 win at Tampa Bay. (Victor Martinez homers twice and Papelbon wiggles out of a 9th inning jam as Lester out duels David Price.)
September 1 - 9-6 win in Baltimore. (A 6 run seventh inning uprising turns an early Orioles lead into a Sox win.)
September 2 - 6-4 win in Baltimore. (The Sox score 5 in the second and hang on for dear life.)
September 12 - 5-3 win in Oakland. (J. D. sparks a comeback win and Beckett gets the win.)
September 14 - 9-6 win in Seattle. (The Sox come back in the 8th thanks to Ortiz's 30th homer.)

TEETH GRINDER GAMES - 46

April 6 - 6-4 loss against the Yankees. (Scutaro's error leads to the winning run.)
April 7 - 3-1 loss against the Yankees. (Sox leave the winning run on in the 9th only to lose on Granderson's 10th inning homer)
April 9 - 4-3 loss in Kansas City. (Bard coughs up the lead, denying Wakefield a win.)
April 17 - 3-1 loss to Tampa Bay. (The Sox can't score with the bases loaded and nobody out in the 11th... lost it in the 12th.)
April 17 - 6-5 loss to Tampa Bay. (The Red Sox comeback falls a run short, leaving two on in the 8th)
April 25 - 7-6 loss to Baltimore. (The Sox blow a 4-1 lead, leave the winning run on second in the 9th, let up 3 in the 10th and could only score 2 in the bottom of the 10th)
April 30 - 5-4 loss in Baltimore. (Tejada ties the game with a 2 out 8th inning homer and wins it with a bloop in the 10th)
May 1 - 12-9 loss in Baltimore. (Dice-K and Wakes get pounded, wasting 2 homers from Ortiz and an early 4-1 lead.)
May 2 - 3-2 loss in Baltimore. (Varitek is thrown at home trying to score with 2 outs in the 8th. Sox get swept in the 10th.
May 12 - 3-2 loss against the Blue Jays. (The Sox rally in the 9th comes up a run short and Kevin Gregg gets an ugly save.)
May 15 - 7-6 loss in Detroit. (The Sox blow a 6-1 lead and lose it on a 2 out bases loaded walk in the 12th.)
May 17 - 11-9 loss in New York. (The Sox come all the way back from a 5-0 first inning hole to take a 9-7 lead in the 9th... but Papelbon lets up a 2 run game tying shot to A-Rod and a 2 run walk off shot to Marcus Thames.)
May 21 - 5-1 loss in Philadelphia. (Big Papi's bid for a game tying 9th inning grand slam is caught at the warning track.)
May 27 - 4-3 loss to Kansas City. (Dice-K walks the go ahead run in and lets another score on a wild pitch as the Royals no name bullpen shut down the Hot Sox.)
May 28 - 12-5 loss to Kansas City. (Sox blow a 3-0 first inning lead to be blown out in Fenway.)
June 3 - 9-8 loss to Oakland. (Sox lose a slugfest where two Boston runners are thrown out at home.)

June 6 - 4-3 loss in Baltimore. (Sox rally to tie the game in the 9th only to lose it on a small ball rally in the 11th.)
June 10 - 8-7 loss in Cleveland. (Sox blow an early 5-0 lead and then after rallying in the 9th to take the lead coughed it up with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th)
June 13 - 5-3 loss to Philadelphia. (Sox 9th inning rally comes up short)
June 22 - 2-1 loss in Colorado. (The Sox waste a solid Lester start and twice leave the bases loaded.)
June 23 - 8-6 loss in Colorado. (The Sox batter Ubaldo Jimenez around but Papelbon lets up 2 homers in the 9th to lose it.)
June 25 - 5-4 loss in San Francisco. (The Sox strand 11 runners in the last 4 innings wasting a solid Wakefield performance.)
July 5 - 6-5 loss in Tampa Bay. (Sox spoil a 5-1 lead and 2 homers by Eric Patterson when Dice-K and the bullpen couldn't hold down the Rays.)
July 6 - 3-2 loss in Tampa Bay. (Sox bats go dead and Kevin Youkilis goes down to injury.)
July 7 - 6-4 loss in Tampa Bay. (Matt Garza comes out of the pen, shuts down a late rally as the Rays sweep the Sox.)
July 10 - 9-5 loss in Toronto. (The Sox give Lackey an early 5-3 lead that he couldn't hold.)
July 18 - 4-2 loss to the Rangers. (Lester loses a rare game at home that included a Rangers steal of home.) July 20 - 5-4 loss in Oakland. (The Sox go up 4-0 after 2 but don't score again and lose it in the 10th)
July 21 - 6-4 loss in Oakland. (Buchholz can't hold on to an early lead as the Sox lose the series.)
July 24 - 5-1 loss in Seattle. (Lester's perfect game is foiled and the Red Sox bats die.)
July 25 - 4-2 loss in Seattle. (Okajima misplays a sacrifice bunt and the Mariners rally in the 8th to win.)
July 30 - 6-5 loss to Detroit. (Papi's grand slam makes it a 1 run game in the 9th but Cameron strikes out looking with the winning runs on base.)
August 2 - 6-5 loss to Cleveland. (Beltre drives in 5 runs by himself but the Red Sox leave the tying run on base with Big Papi on deck.)
August 12 - 6-5 loss in Toronto. (The Jays score 4 in the 9th inning to avoid the sweep.)
August 13 - 10-9 loss in Texas. (Beckett can't hold an early 8-1 lead as the Sox lose in 11.)
August 15 - 7-3 loss in Texas. (Young's homer breaks open a tight game.)
August 25 - 4-2 loss to Seattle. (The Sox knock out King Felix but can't score on the bullpen.)
August 28 - 3-2 loss in Tampa. (Buchholz was wonderful but Upton's homer in the 8th tied it and Dan Johnson's homer in the 10th was the winner)
August 29 - 5-3 loss in Tampa. (Dan Johnson once again sinks the Sox with a late game RBI single)

August 31 - 5-2 loss in Baltimore. (Beckett pitches well but 2 8th inning homers sink the Sox.)
September 4 - 3-1 loss to Chicago. (Manny acts contrite, Konerko gets 3 hits and Danks shuts down a lifeless Sox team.)
September 4 - 3-1 loss to Chicago. (Nope, it isn't a typo. They lost twice in the same day by the same score.)
September 5 - 7-5 loss to Chicago. (Papelbon implodes as the Red Sox blow a 5-3 lead in the 9th thanks to 5 ninth inning walks.)
September 11 - 4-3 loss in Oakland. (Lackey pitches well but the A's rally in the 7th, highlighted by a Rajai Davis triple just out of Ryan Kalish's reach.)
September 17 - 11-9 loss to Toronto. (Lackey gets pounded and the Red Sox rally falls short.)
September 18 - 4-3 loss to Toronto. (Ryan Kalish is picked off first in the 9th inning with the big bats coming up.)


Down to +3.

But odd that the it is still in the plus column, isn't it?