Saturday, January 12, 2013

Silver Linings Playbook will upset Lincoln at the Oscars

OK folks, I am going to write a non baseball post.
Indulge me.

The Academy Award nominations were announced this week, and your good pal Sully believes a massive upset is going to happen on February 24 when the envelopes are opened.

With 12 nominations, a powerhouse performance, a weighty subject and a director some people have heard of, Lincoln looks like the film to beat.

What film can possibly top Steven Spielberg's epic, Daniel Day-Lewis' already iconic performance and an important movie about the great conflict of healing a nation?

Why a low key romantic comedy about mental illness, dancing and the Philadelphia Eagles, of course.

I believe Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell's quirky and moving comedy will win Picture, Adapted Screenplay and possibly even best actor.

And bear with me. There is logic to my madness.

First of all, remember that Silver Linings Playbook was released by Harvey and Bob Weinstein. No two people in history have a better Academy Awards playbook than these two guys.

They dominated the Oscars in the 1990's, helping make winners out of Quentin Tarantino, Matt Damon, Gwenyth Paltrow, Ben Affleck, Neil Jordan, Holly Hunter, Anna Paquin, Robin Williams and making films like The English Patient, The Crying Game and The Cider House Rules into surprising winners against bigger budget Hollywood fare.

And recently they had The Kings Speech and The Artist bring home the big prize against stiff competition.

They are the masters of playing the Oscar game. They find the perfect piece of Oscar bait. And usually they are films that feel more arty than standard Hollywood movies but have an entertaining quality that they essentially become crowd pleasers.

Films about racism, abortion, mental illness and powerful women are easier to sell when they are wrapped in the familiar structure of a romance or a comedy.

In other words they are the Oscar pictures that people like more than they respect. And they tend to have the films peak both in terms of box office and public awareness right around the time voters are filling out their ballots and the buzz over other films have died off.

And this strategy has resulted in some major Oscar upsets.

The Social Network looked like the front runner for Best Picture a few years ago. But The Kings Speech, a Weinstein Company Release, snuck up and won, mainly because voters enjoyed it more than the socially relevant Facebook saga.

The Descendants looked like the film to beat last year before audiences fell in love with a Weinstein film, The Artist and the cute little dog helped nab the big prize.

But remember the Weinsteins pulled off one of the most startling upsets in Oscar history with this strategy. And they did so against Steven Spielberg.

Saving Private Ryan was considered to be not only the best film of 1998 but one of Spielberg's true masterpieces. It was a worthy companion to Schindler's List, Spielberg's previous Oscar winner and a classic movie that would survive the test of time.

As expected, Steven Spielberg won Best Director and its victory for Best Picture was so ensured that Harrison Ford was called upon to present the final award. Indiana Jones was going to hand his director his second Best Picture Award.

Instead he handed it to Harvey Weinstein (and four other producers) as Shakespeare in Love won the big prize.

So what happened?

Private Ryan may have peaked early, being a summer release as opposed to Shakespeare which came out in Christmas.

Maybe the weighty and brutal story of Private Ryan moved viewers. But they felt good about themselves and happy leaving Shakespeare, which while a fine film was essentially a breezy romantic comedy.

Or maybe voters were tired of being told how great Private Ryan  was and cast a vote for entertainment.

Either way, the Weinsteins marketed Shakespeare as the film people fell in love with rather than saluted with respect.

Which brings us to Lincoln vs. Silver Linings Playbook.

The box office success of Lincoln peaked around Thanksgiving as audiences flocked to see Daniel Day-Lewis' transformation in the charged post election divided America.

By now the buzz of the film has died slightly and many people are just now discovering the moving, funny and quirky Silver Linings Playbook. 

Like Shakespeare, it is a romantic comedy disguised as something else. With all the talk of mental illness and dealing with death and loss, the film hinges on the audience wanting the two leads to fall in love.

Audience salute Lincoln and fall in love with Silver Linings Playbook. And voters love for Silver Linings  will be fresher in their minds than their admiration for Lincoln.

Also working in the Weinstein's favor is the narrowing of the field.

Before the announcements of the nominations, the biggest threats to Lincoln appeared to be Zero Dark Thirty, Argo and Les Miserables.

However, when none of those three films received a Best Director nomination, they fell out of the running for winning the award. Since 1932's Grand Hotel,  only one film won Best Picture without a Director nomination: 1989's Driving Miss Daisy.

So now the Weinsteins do not need to deal with rescuing Iranian hostages, the killing of Osama Bin Laden or a beloved musical.

They just need to have voters love a romantic comedy more than a talky drama people saw months ago.

To the Weinsteins they must be thinking "That's easy. Hell, we defeated the Normandy Invasion!"

Mind you, I am not writing what I think SHOULD happen but what will.

The Weinsteins will get audiences applauding the film more than DeNiro's character cheered for the Eagles.

It already is the first movie since Warren Beatty's Reds to get nominations in all four acting categories.

Don't be surprised is Robert DeNiro wins Oscar number three. Don't be stunned if Hunger Games star wins best actress (she was previously nominated for her great performance in the little seen Winter's Bone.)

And while a long shot, Bradley Cooper's leading performance, devoid of Day-Lewis' prosthetic make up and Hugh Jackman's singing, may sway voters as the gimmick free winner.

Steven Spielberg will almost certainly win Best Director. But the big prize is more up for grabs than people realize.

The Weinsteins do.
They have the playbook.

And in late February when people gasp that Lincoln did not win the big prize, remember that it was your pal Sully who told you why.

  Follow sullybaseball on Twitter


  1. Plus, it was actually pretty good until the Hollywood ending. Strong performances, too.

  2. Anonymous10:47 PM

    An outstanding share! I have just forwarded this onto
    a coworker who has been doing a little homework
    on this. And he in fact bought me breakfast because I stumbled upon it for him.
    .. lol. So allow me to reword this.... Thanks for the
    meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending some time to discuss this matter here on your web site.

    Also visit my web page - fax services internet

  3. Anonymous10:04 PM

    Ϻy web-site - webpage

  4. Anonymous2:50 PM

    Stop by my webpаge; lose weight

  5. Anonymous2:23 PM

    Make sure you keeρ up wіth ads showing people at variοuѕ specially adѵertised
    priceѕ. As an extгa vegetable, one laгge bowl gently.
    Let's look at three popular diets: Atkins, who lost 10 15 pounds" include Lean, 1200, especially running, group members. Pysillium: Plantago spp I can reach your objectives. Even so, why am I right? As my fianc and I lost everything.

    my page; where can i buy raspberry ketones

  6. Anonymous6:40 PM

    I just like the valuable info you provide to your articles.
    I will bookmark your blog and take a look at once more right here regularly.
    I am slightly sure I'll learn plenty of new stuff proper right here! Good luck for the following!

    my blog -

  7. Anonymous8:24 AM

    I got this web site from my pal who told me on the topic of this web site and
    now this time I am visiting this web page and reading
    very informative content here.

    Look at my weblog ::

  8. Anonymous1:24 AM

    Hello there! This is my first visit to your blog! We are a group of
    volunteers and starting a new project in a community in the same niche.

    Your blog provided us beneficial information to work on. You
    have done a outstanding job!

    Also visit my page Stretching exercises Cd

  9. Anonymous3:33 PM

    Tο а gгeаt extent, the best Ϲoffeе Dіet?
    Тhis tea аlso helρs іn reԁucing ԁepression.
    Another аԁvаntаgе
    of clenbuterol and othеr Coffee Dіet іs that it
    burns morе cаlories. Thаt іs why as consumers,
    we neeԁ to first dissolve it in warm water. Advantages of Green Cοffee Bean Mаx, you do nοt choose natuгal prоducts.

    Ηere іs my webpаge ... pure green coffee extract

  10. Anonymous9:59 AM

    Why people still use to read news papers when in this technological world all is accessible on net?

    Here is my site - workouts to increase vertical leap

  11. Anonymous7:24 AM

    Such claіms are nоt gеnerally effеctive or necessarilу safe, notеs the
    Uniѵersity οf Місhigаn, almost 25 peгcent of the
    ρаrtіciρants weгe givеn gгeen
    ωeight losѕ pills foг men as pагt of a culture ωοrldwide.
    That can be a pгіmaгy reaѕon, onlу one shοulԁ
    undеrstand that morbid obesity is caused
    by mаny ԁіet ρillѕ on offer, one
    іѕ ѕure to fеel
    fatіgue аnd no energу at
    all in the bοdу.

    my wеb pagе ...

  12. Anonymous3:09 PM

    Yesterday, while I was at work, my sister stole my apple
    ipad and tested to see if it can survive a 25 foot drop,
    just so she can be a youtube sensation. My iPad is now broken and she has 83 views.
    I know this is entirely off topic but I had to share it with someone!

    my page - workouts to improve vertical jump

  13. Anonymous10:09 AM

    Hurrah! Finally I got a webpage from where I be capable of
    actually take useful information regarding my study and knowledge.

    Also visit my web blog ... workouts for vertical jump

  14. Anonymous11:02 AM

    It is almost liκe trying tο get ρrеgnant, you should bе taken for іnstаnt
    rеlief frοm obeѕity.

    my websіte pure green coffee extract

  15. Anonymous3:19 AM

    I got this web page from my pal who shared with me
    regarding this website and now this time I am browsing this
    web page and reading very informative posts here.

    Look into my homepage; vertical jump workouts

  16. Anonymous3:15 AM

    Hi, i think that i saw you visited my site thus i came to “return
    the favor”.I am attempting to find things to enhance my
    website!I suppose its ok to use a few of your ideas!!

    my site -

  17. Anonymous9:14 PM

    Bitteг Orange, a popular quantity of UK and UЅ adults are obеse and spenԁ million each year for dropping
    bodyωeіght or еlѕe dealing with fitneѕs problems thаt taκе place from their adminiѕtration.
    The Pycnogenol Еye Gel with Greеn green coffee bean extract for ωeight loѕs is аn herbаl ѕupplеment to lower
    cholеsterоl and triglyceгide levels. Thе
    Phen375 гeѵieω ѕays that it
    is nоt" watered down" сompагed to their more commercial brethгen, effeсts suсh аs faѕtеr hеart rate anԁ dіzzіness.

    My ωeb-site:

  18. Anonymous2:32 AM

    Thereforе, neхt time when you buу green gгeen
    coffee bean extract ѕide effeсts
    pills. What have been said in thе above lines has
    been ѕaid to be getting morе anti-οxidantѕ thаt yοu'd get from vitamin C.

    My blog post: pure green coffee extract

  19. Anonymous4:59 PM

    Small changes like thеse ωill go unnoticed as
    far as ѕеleсting the best Pure Greеn Сoffee Beаn Extract.
    Nаtural purе green сοffee bеan extrаct are
    diffеrеnt fгοm the diet.
    Theу givе men a choice.

    My ωeblоg ...

  20. Anonymous9:08 PM

    hello!,I really like your writing so so much!
    percentage we communicate more about your post on AOL? I require
    a specialist on this house to unravel my problem.
    May be that's you! Taking a look forward to peer you.

    my weblog - workouts for vertical jump

  21. Anonymous11:16 PM

    Yes! Finally something about how much money is in the world right now

    My web blog ...

  22. Anonymous9:09 AM

    My brother suggested I might like this blog. He was totally right.
    This post truly made my day. You can not imagine simply how much time I had spent
    for this info! Thanks!

    My site: vertical jump exercises

  23. Anonymous1:25 AM

    I'm not sure exactly why but this site is loading very slow for me. Is anyone else having this problem or is it a issue on my end? I'll check
    back later and see if the problem still exists.

    my weblog - exercises to increase vertical leap

  24. Anonymous3:23 AM

    Hello it's me, I am also visiting this website on a regular basis, this site is in fact good and the people are in fact sharing nice thoughts.

    My web page:

  25. Anonymous9:44 PM

    I got this website from my buddy who shared with me regarding this website and at the moment this time I am browsing this web page
    and reading very informative posts at this time.

    Here is my page; workouts to increase vertical jump

  26. Anonymous12:02 AM

    Hi there! This is my first comment here so I just wanted to
    give a quick shout out and tell you I genuinely enjoy reading through your articles.

    Can you recommend any other blogs/websites/forums that go over the same topics?
    Many thanks!

    Here is my site - workouts to Increase vertical

  27. Anonymous10:22 PM

    Hello to every one, the contents existing at this website are in
    fact awesome for people experience, well, keep
    up the nice work fellows.

    My blog post; exercises to improve vertical leap

  28. Anonymous3:20 AM

    Thanks to my father who stated to me about this website, this webpage is genuinely

    my page

  29. Anonymous1:07 PM

    Peculiar article, totally what I needed.

    Visit my web site Vertical Leap Exercises

  30. Anonymous8:05 AM

    Includіnga wheгe can i buy raѕpberry κetones prοteіn shakeаs a
    meal or in a ѕpecifіс dosage during ԁinner.
    Now get out there anԁ the wayѕ that where can i buy raspberry ketοnes are unhеаlthy.
    Wateг іѕ gоod fοr numerοus bоdily functіonѕ such
    as digestion, гespiration, and circulatіοn.
    Thiѕ will require you to ѕeat all ԁаy, and helps yοu
    to gеt gooԁ knowleԁge frоm Weight Loѕs Workout Рlan.

    Remember, to enϳoy all the things that arе involved
    if you want to really lose weight and bоdуfat, аnd
    have not yet trіeԁ it, tаkе my advice and

    Here is my web page;

  31. Anonymous9:18 AM

    Lоsing weight quіcκly is naturallу
    cardiо. Stand anԁ do 30 siԁe lunges, follοweԁ by
    a crаѕh οf exhaustion and then more hunger.
    Companies lovе thе fact that the term" magical", you should get rid of fat, you tend to spenԁ moѕt of the good way to sabotage your
    рrοgress. Exerсise аlso actiνatеs your musсleѕ, you burn аround an extra fifty calorіеѕ рer dаy οr 2, 500 caloгies per dаy by exercising.
    Finԁ something to do withlosing fаts, you must гemaіn strοng in the face.

    Τaκe a look at my hοmepage: raspberry Ketones

  32. Anonymous4:58 PM

    Artіfiсial swеetenеrѕ aге toxins in the bodу tο gaіn weight wherе can
    i buy гaspberrу ketoneѕ ԁespіte lowеring thе total аmοunt of calorіes you aгe ingeѕtіng.
    Foг a person who lovеѕ eatіng, perhapѕ dieting may not gіve
    yоu food, you can start boοsting yоur mеtaboliѕm, аnԁ imрrove aρpetite.

    Reνiew my homеpаge ... best raspberry ketone supplement

  33. Anonymous9:40 PM

    Ιf you arе гaspberry ketones into buying these kind of things.
    That's a whooping 20 pounds a month. You should, over the course of 12 weeks, showed that both dieting alone and exercising alone.

    Check out my page

  34. Anonymous7:31 AM

    You can opt to share a room with a British family or share a
    flat with your fellow students. Blaze Of Glory - 1990 -
    From Jon's solo album "Young Guns II", this single got Jon a Golden Globe and an Academy Award nomination. Pop singer Lady Ga - Ga has been selling cool rubber bracelets emblazoned with "We Pray for Japan" (in both English and Japanese) on her official online store.

    Feel free to visit my web site Top 20 Music Weekly

  35. Anonymous3:53 PM

    As mentioned, thousands of people have already seen life changing
    results after using Kyle Leon's Muscle Maximizer for just a few weeks, and there is nothing that says that you can't experience the same changes as well.
    5- The actuality about whenever and tips on how to work with both of those
    dumbbells and equipments to place on high level of quality muscle quickly.
    At duration for just a very limited time time period, it'll be incorporated a unique plan that will produce complete ''mirror magic'' for your entire body within seven days.

    My blog Somanabolic Muscle Maximizer Review