Sully Baseball Daily Podcast - July 6, 2013

Today on The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast, I take a look at the save statistic and determine it has little to no value.

So I am proposing a NEW stat: YOP. What is YOP? Better listen to today's episode.

Ivan Nova, Francisco Liriano, Jose Bautista and Kirk Nieuwenhuis all owned baseball on July 5, 2013.


To see the up to date tally of "Who Owns Baseball?," click HERE.

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Sully Baseball Daily Podcast - July 6, 2013

Kevin Gregg and the battle between stats and your own eyes

I know it seems like I have it in for Kevin Gregg. I wrote about him torpedoing the 2008 Marlins playoff hopes.

In 2009 I couldn't figure out why the Cubs would want him.

In 2010 I wrote about how he shouldn't be the closer for the Blue Jays.

And last month I kind of freaked out when I saw the Red Sox were interested in him.

Now he has 2 years in Baltimore, and he supplied some relief... for ME! As a Red Sox fan, I didn't want him in Fenway. Now I know he is going to stay in the AL East, which is great for any AL East team NOT named Baltimore.

Look, I never met Kevin Gregg. I am sure he is a nice guy. I am sure he has talent. But I feel like I am Bizarro World when I hear people say things like "Gregg has a track record that suggests he will be a fairly dependable closer."

REALLY?
I guess if by dependable you mean "you can depend on him to blow some big games."

But this got me thinking. There seems to be two very different schools of thought in baseball today when it comes to evaluating players:

There is the old school of scouting, watching the players and going with gut instinct.
And there is the statistical evaluation with an ever evolving series of numerical criteria.

The problem with the first school is of course it is totally subjective. You could see someone have a great game the first time you saw them play and skew any scouting report to that opening impression. Plus there is no way to quantify things like "heart" and "clutch" and "gets his uniform dirty." Yeah someone could get a clutch hit... but what if they got it off of a lousy pitcher?

Stat heads often have little patience for any praise or criticism for a player not based on numbers. I am sure someone out there can tell me why, statistically, Kirk Gibson's home run off of Dennis Eckersley was not impressive.

But of course there is a reason why they cling to stats: They are not subjective. It is a game of numbers. Your worth comes from the numbers, not some vague intangible. "Moxy" doesn't win ball games. A good on base percentage plus slugging can.

There are problems with the stats approach as well. While focusing only on stats and eliminating any human emotion might be a great way to assemble a fantasy team, the players are actually human. And sometimes there are elements to someone's game that have nothing to do with the WAR that can make a player a bad fit.

All the statistical analysis showed that Edgar Renteria was a terrific fit for the Red Sox. Anyone who knew the guy felt that the rough Northeastern media environment would not gel with the shortstop. The Red Sox signed him and BANG! he didn't fit in and had one of his worst seasons.

Last year when Javy Vazquez was reacquired by the Yankees, the stat heads were saying they had an ace and a bulldog. Look at his strikeout per inning ratio! Look at how many innings he pitched! Look at his situation wins saved! But I said and many other people said "Didn't he flop in New York? Didn't he fold up like a tent? And why would Ozzie Guillen trash Vazquez's ability during a pennant run?" The statistical analysis won out, and to the surprise of nobody and except people analyzing the stats, he was a disaster in New York.

This brings us back to Gregg.
You can look at his strikeout totals, his good strikeout to walk ratio, his high save total and any other means you want to fold his stats into an oragami swan.

The most disturbing trend in his career when you look at the stats has nothing to do with numbers. It has to do with the teams.

The Orioles will be his fifth team in the last six seasons. Isn't that a red flag? Doesn't that tell you that each of these teams kicked the tires and drove the car and said "In theory it is great... but you can have it."

All games, saves and blown saves are created equal on the back of the baseball card but not in reality. The games he blew down the stretch for the Marlins were huge stretch run games that took wind out of their sails in the Wild Card hunt. The games he blew out of the gate for the Cubs helped them stumble into the 2009 season and they never recovered.

Each of those teams had him and didn't seem to have any urgency to keep him.
That's a red flag folks.

Not convinced?
Still think that you analyze the stats and that is the end all and be all of figuring out who to sign?

How about this compromise?
You look at the stats, but then before offering a contract, you poll the fans. You know, the people who actually LIVED with the player for a season.

Remember Armando Benitez?

If you looked at his stats, you would come to the conclusion that he was an elite reliever. His strikeout to innings pitched ratio was insane. His ERA was solid. He piled up saves.

He won the Rolaids Relief Award in 2001.

Ask Mets fans about that great season he had in 2001. He was so hated by Met fans that year for his critical blown saves down the stretch that you would have thought he had wiped his butt with the flag flown at Ground Zero.

And this was AFTER he blew key post season saves in the 1999 Division Series, 1999 NLCS, 2000 Division Series and 2000 World Series.

I lived in New York when he pitched for the Mets. I lived near San Francisco when he pitched for the Giants. Don't talk to me about his stats. He was a disaster in both places.

How his agent kept getting him big contracts was a topic of an early Sully Baseball post.

Oriole fans who now have Kevin Gregg to deal with also remember Benitez and him blowing games in the 1996 and 1997 post season.

Yeah he had great numbers. But sometimes the numbers didn't add up.

Kevin Gregg, like Benitez and Vazquez, keeps getting passed around to teams who think they are getting a stud while their former team is chuckling.

So am I saying to throw stats in the garbage?
Of course not. Relying too much on scouting and subjective opinion is nuts. And relying only on numbers is perilous. Like a good pitcher, you need a combination of the two. Look at the numbers, understand the circumstances that the stats were piled up in.

And if the people who actually watch the player flinch when you mention him... maybe take a pass.

Not only should Lidge not close... he shouldn't be on the playoff roster

I guess my title kind of says it all... but seriously, there should not be a discussion of whether or not he should be closing.

That ship has sailed.

Even the Devil is starting to feel bad about that deal he struck.

It's kind of gone beyond opinion right now. I can prove he shouldn't be the closer in a court of law in front of a jury of his peers.

Seriously, when I declared the situation to be grotesque, his ERA was 7.15.

That was early September. Since then his ERA has gone UP!

It's sitting at 7.48 in late September.

His ERA hasn't been below 6.75 since early May.

Another bad outing and his ERA will be closer to 8.00 than to 7.00.

Stop and think about what that means.

If he enters a game for one inning, there is a 83% chance he will let up a run in that inning.

Which means if he is up by a run, there is an 83% chance that he'll blow the save.

Yeah I know what he did last year and it was great for the Phillies.

But he physically can't do the job this year.

It would be like having Mickey Rooney do a song and dance routine NOW!

"But he did so many great ones in the past." 

Sure, but he can no longer WALK!

The Phillies need to go to plan B... or C... or are we up to H at this point?

No responsible manager would bring in Brad Lidge in a playoff situation right now. It would be insanity. 

Lidge's ERA is nearly 0.75 points higher than Eric Gagne's during his horrific Red Sox stint in 2007... and Gagne's time in Boston was so bad it inspired this musical ditty.

Again, spare me the "He's the only one with experience as a closer" argument.

His experience has led to an 0-8 record, 11 blown saves and a sense of dread whenever he removes his warm up jacket that could only be described as Armando Benitez-esque.

 

Besides, what was Adam Wainwright's closer experience when he had to take over for the injured Jason Isringhausen in 2006?

Or Bobby Jenks' limited experience in 2005 taking over for Dustin Hermanson?

They had a combined career 9 saves going into those post seasons.

Guess what? Both clinched the final out of the World Series.

So how's about this for a solution?... Charlie Manuel goes into the post season without Brad Lidge on the roster.

Seriously. In what other situation would you put a pitcher with an ERA of 7.48 into a playoff spot?

The Phillies can carry 11 pitchers.

STARTING ROTATION

1. Cole Hamels

2. Cliff Lee

3. Joe Blanton

4. J. A. Happ

BULLPEN

5. Ryan Madson

6. Pedro Martinez

7. Clay Condrey

8. Kyle Kendrick

9. Tyler Walker

10. Jamie Moyer

11. Sergio Escalona

And no need to have Lidge in there.

Granted that bullpen doesn't strike fear into anyone's hearts. But how could that be worse than having a bullpen closer who is a lock to blow a save.

Maybe Manuel can mix and match the 9th. Imagine Pedro coming out one inning... or Condrey another based on the match ups.

Or cross your fingers like Guillen did with Jenks and LaRussa did with Wainwright and hand the ball to the likes of a Madson. 

Do you really think Madson would pitch to a 7.48 ERA?

But the Phillies can't bring Lidge along. Oh he can dress and travel with the team, but he can't be activated.

Do you really want Lidge facing the best hitters in the NL in playoff games?

Does any Phillies fan want to see Lidge face Pujols?

How did THAT turn out?

The two least controversial decisions on my Mets post

It's funny... my Mets Home Grown vs. Acquired Post had people not agreeing with my positive assessment of Superstar Mike Piazza, franchise fixture Bud Harrelson, fan favorite Lee Mazzilli, Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan, World Series MVP Ray Knight and NLCS MVP Mike Hampton.

But NOBODY seemed to have a problem that I honored hard luck loser Anthony Young.

And you know what else seemed controversy free?



Despite having the highest single season save total in Mets history... and the second highest single season save total in Mets history... and the seventh highest single season save total in Mets history... and having the second highest career number of saves in Mets history.... not a soul said "Hey! Where's Armando Benitez?"

Nobody had a problem with a bullpen of Jesse Orosco, John Franco, Ron Taylor, Billy Wagner and Skip Lockwood... even though Benitez saved more games in a Mets uniform than all of them except Franco.

Just goes to show you Mets fans know that sometimes there is something to be said about HOW you lose!

Hey Met fans... you got K-Rod... DUCK!

The Mets need a closer... and they signed the guy who saved more games in a single season than anyone else.

Francisco Rodriguez is going to the Mets according to the Times.

Great move, right?
Those games lost down the stretch will be saved, right?

Ohhh boy.

I wrote about the reasons to be wary of him... so there's no reason to rehash all of it.

But throwing him into Queens where they desperately need a winner is almost as awful as saying "The Mets are happy to bring back Armando Benitez."

Harsh you say?
Look at his post season record folks...
You can get away with that in Disneyland.

The only Rolaids in Queens this season won't be for the relief award... it will be the packs swallowed by Met fans who will be wondering "Is Johnny Franco still available?"

I say good for K-Rod

I know it is popular to belittle the save statistic, especially since Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan destroyed the concept of a 2 inning save when they turned Eckersley into a 1 inning pitcher.

And yeah, it is possible for a choke artist to pile up saves and have the stats but not the guts of an All Star.

(See Benitez, Armando)

And that facing the bottom of the order with a 3 run lead in the 9th probably shouldn't be called a "save situation."

And I also know that Frankie Rodriguez's hits and walks are up and his strike outs are down, so you can argue this isn't his best season.

But hey!
If saves are so easy to get, then why didn't Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Randy Myers, Jonathan Papelbon et al saved 58 games in a season?

And was he supposed to do in those 58 instances where he pitched with a 3 run or fewer lead in the 9th inning?

He's not the best in the game, but he deserves his day in the sun.

(But remember who is writing this blog... and before anyone thinks he is infallible, enjoy Manny Ramirez's walk off shot against Rodriguez in last year's division series.)

Armando Borowski

When I heard the Indians lost a game where they were winning with 2 outs in the 10th inning, I thought to myself "Joe Borowski must be off the DL."

And lo and behold I checked the box score and it was indeed Borowski who let up a 2 out homer to Ramirez.

Not Manny
Not Hanley
Not Aramis

Alexi Ramirez

Oh yeah then he let up a single, a stolen base and a game winning hit.

Hey Indians... here's a tip:
Borowski sucks.
He isn't in Benitez country yet, but maybe the 7.56 ERA should tell you something.

You are in last place a year after taking a 3-1 lead in the ALCS.
You can't afford to lose any more games. It's not a fluke.

Why not sign Benitez? He's available

Blue Jay fans... why not bring back Cito?

Let's talk Blue Jays baseball today.

First of all, I tip my hat to the Blue Jays organization for dumping Armando Benitez in less than a month.

After he let up two home runs in 2/3 of an inning for a crushing loss against Baltimore on June 6, the Jays basically said "OK, everything we read was true. I guess the fan bases of the Orioles, Mets and Giants weren't 100% wrong about this guy."

It took the Giants 3 years to dump him. The Jays didn't need that long.

The funny thing is I wanted to put a picture of him in a Blue Jays uniform on the blog... and I couldn't find one on the web.

But their correct handling of Benitez doesn't mask the fact that the Blue Jays are blowing a big opportunity this year. What has everyone been saying about the Jays over the last few years?

"They'd be a contender if they were in a different division." Basically saying the Red Sox/Yankees cold war has prevented more October games being played north of the border.

Well look at this year. The Yankees have been hovering around the .500 mark, and while a lot of people including yours truly think they will go on a run, there is a possibility with the thin rotation and question marks in the bullpen and no Torre on the bench that the Yankees won't.

So an AL East team that is usually an after thought has a shot to be a playoff contender. And you'd think that team would be Toronto instead of the post Exorcism Rays.

The Blue Jays have the pitching to win but they can't seem to get out of their own way. They lost series recently to Seattle (inexcusable) and the Yankees and Orioles, whom they should be trying to move past.


Which brings us to the manager John Gibbons.
First of all, why is he still the manager?

Once you pick fights with your own players and don't turn those fights into wins, shouldn't you be canned?
Or caned?

But worse than battling with Dave Bush, Shea Hillenbrand, Ted Lilly and I'm guessing Frank Thomas... his team could be blowing a chance to take advantage of a crack in the AL East armor.

Yeah they've had injuries, but so has every team. And any team that has a rotation of Halladay, Marcum, McGowan, Burnett and Litsch should be winning more than 1 out of every 2 games.

How many teams say "Hey we HAVE enough starting pitching?"

The Blue Jays need a spark. This is Gibbons fifth season as manager. Maybe give the keys to someone else.

And why not have that person be Cito Gaston?
Seriously... bring back the manager of the greatest glory era of Toronto baseball!

Heck when Cito first managed the team, he took over an incredibly talented but underachieving Jays team that was 12-24. Jimy (sic) Williams wasn't getting it done.

They went 77-49 the rest of the way to edge the Orioles for the AL East. He lost the AL East on the last day of the 1990 season to Boston and then rattled off 3 straight division titles.

Then he became an interesting answer to a trivia question:
Who was the first manager of back to back World Champions in the Free Agency era?

Remember the Yankees won back to back in 1977 and 1978, but Bob Lemon had replaced Billy Martin.

The 1980s had only a handful of back to back division winners and repeating as champs seemed like a thing of the past.

And free agency took its toll on the 1992 World Champs. A bunch of players flew South of the border after the World Series parade. And not exactly insignificant players either.
Jimmy Key
Kelly Gruber
Tom Henke
Manny Lee
Candy Maldonado
Dave Winfield
David Wells
David Cone

Sure they replaced some with big names (Dave Stewart and Paul Molitor signed on and Tony Fernandez and Rickey Henderson were brought in as mid season trades) but they had to fill in other holes from within.

Todd Stottlemyre, Pat Hentgen, Ed Sprague and Duane Ward had to play bigger roles.

And Jack Morris was hurt and useless in 1993.

The result? A World Series title courtesy of Joe Carter.
Now he never had another winning season and the Jays took a while to recover after the strike and he was fired during the 1997 season.

And he hasn't managed since.
To this day only two managers have won back to back World Series titles in the Free Agency era...
Joe Torre and Cito Gaston.

One is going to the Hall of Fame and the other can't get a job.
He evidently has been up for a couple, but why isn't his name the first on people's lips?

All the managers he beat in the post season got jobs!
Tony LaRussa, Gene Lamont... even Jim Fregosi!

Don't tell me he's been gone from the game too long.
Jim Leyland left the game bitterly after the 1998 season and didn't come back until leading the Tigers to the 2006 World Series.

Don't tell me he's too old.
I think Jack McKeon calls Methuselah "Son."

Cito has as many World Series rings as those guys combined.

Someone like Terry Collins, who actually had player revolts on two teams, has been mentioned more times than Cito for jobs.

And I am not going to open the racial can of worms.
Don Baylor, who won exactly gotch as a manager, found more work.
And Dusty Baker, the man behind the biggest collapse of a potential World Series clincher in history as the Giants manager followed that up the next year with the 2003 Cubs collapse.

I say bring Cito back now!
Why not?
Maybe he's hungry! (He hasn't worked in 10 seasons, I hope he saved his money.)


What do YOU say, Blue Jays fans? The members of Blue Jays Nation!

Superfan... do you want Cito back?

Hey everyone at American Jays Fan... Is there something I don't know about him that is preventing him from getting another job?

Hey Matt and KP at Jays Nest, do you think Gibbons should be gone?

Do the folks at The Mockingbird think this year is a unique opportunity?

Let's hear from you Jays fans!
I don't want to cause an international incident

What exactly IS Armando Benitez's job description?

So Armando Benitez came into a tie game in the 9th against the Rockies last night, let up 3 hits, 2 stolen bases and an intentional walk... the Rockies score twice and win the game.

Benitez responded as he did last year after a trademark Benitez meltdown in Washington.
He said "I did my job."



After years of high profile failures which we have covered before, I wondered how he could be so casual about it.

Then it hit me.
Has anyone actually read his contract?
Perhaps in every contract he signed since being with the Orioles, through his times with the Mets and now the Giants, his job has been clearly defined as fulfilling 9 simple goals.

1. If the game is tied in the 9th inning or extra innings, give up the go ahead run.
2. If the team has the lead in the 9th inning or extra innings, give up that lead with lightning speed.
3. When you blow a game, make sure it demoralizes the team after a scrappy come back that your ineptitude makes for naught.
4. Try to let up home runs to light hitting players.
5. Get your fan base to hate the very sight of you to the point that the moment you take your warm up jacket off in the bullpen, you get booed.
6. Become an endless focus on call in talk shows where the team's sanity is questioned for keeping you.
7. Demoralize not only a team but a loyal fan base who can trace the end of their team's pennant chances with your spectacular failures.
8. Despite your failures, insist that you are one of the elites in the game and take no responsibility.
9. Try to gain some weight.

If that is his job description, then I take back my criticism.
He did indeed do his job... and he did it quite well if I may add.