Yankees Should Already Regret Trading Montero - A Bleacher Report Article

The Jesus Montero trade blew up in the Yankees face once Michael Pineda went down for the year. But now it looks even larger as the Yankees desperately need to make a trade for a starting pitcher, and they've already cashed in their best trade chip.

In my latest for Bleacher Report, I break down this problem in the Bronx.

You can read the entire article HERE.

For at least one day, it all worked for the Mariners

From Cliff Lee to Erik Bedard to the 2008 season to Chone Figgins, not a lot has gone as the Seattle Mariners had planned over the past few seasons.

Big prospects have disappointed, rebuilding plans have gone awry and the specter of Felix Hernandez and Ichiro Suzuki finishing their runs in Seattle without a trip to the World Series hangs over the team.

Yet last night, for one wonderful night, it all seemed to click with their young line up.
In one glorious night against the two time defending American League Champion Rangers, the young Mariners flexed their muscles and looked exactly like the team they wanted to build.

24 year old Dustin Ackley, the second overall pick in the 2009 draft? He went 2-5 with a homer and 3 RBI. His OPS went up to .691.

Ackley's teammate at UNC, Kyle Seager, went 4-6 with a pair of doubles and two RBI.

22 year old Jesus Montero, the prize of the Michael Pineda deal, reached base 5 times, drove in 4 runs and launched his 7th homer.

25 year old Justin Smoak, the key of the Cliff Lee trade, collected 3 hits and a walk, crushed a pair of homers and drove in 6 runs.

25 year old Michael Saunders, their super prospect from 2009 and 2010, went 3-6 with a pair of doubles.

It looks so easy when it is done right. If those five (plus Ichiro who sat out last night) could do that on a regular basis, the Mariners would be a contender and Felix Hernandez would win 25 games every year.

Hopefully for Mariner fans this was no fluke.
   

OF COURSE Montero homered

Oh it would have been sweeter if the Mariners actually won the freaking GAME.
But you just knew that Montero was going to go deep.

Maybe today he'll hit a game winning shot.

If only he had a position to play.

Meanwhile Michael Pineda went to see The Avengers last night.




  

Watch Jesus Montero homer this weekend in the Bronx

As a petty Yankee hater, I would LOVE to see Jesus Montero come into Yankee Stadium this weekend and hit at least one homer.

I'd love to see him put on a show. Smack a few over the fence, hit a few doubles in the gap and maybe even throw a few runners out from behind the plate... you know, to answer those who say he doesn't have a position.

If he does that, there will STILL people who claim that it isn't a bad trade in the short term.

Square off, Jesus. Make them pay.


 

From a Daily News article in 2011

While looking up some facts for a post I am writing about Brian Cashman, I stumbled across this gem in the New York Daily News from John Harper.

He wrote it on September 7th, 2011 after Jesus Montero homered for the Yankees.

I'll cut and paste the whole thing here.

It will always be fair to wonder if Brian Cashman was right or wrong not to give in to the Mariners' demands for Cliff Lee 14 months ago and include either Ivan Nova or Eduardo Nuez along with Jesus Montero, the centerpiece of the proposed deal.

But one thing for sure: After Montero flashed the opposite-field power that has had scouts comparing him to Mike Piazza for years, hitting his first two big-league home runs at Yankee Stadium on Monday, it's starting to look like the Mariners were the real losers in that rather famous near-deal.

 Oh what an ironic ending!
A player that scouts compared to Mike Piazza could have been dealt for Cliff Lee, who was the difference between the Yankees going to the 2010 World Series or the Rangers going to the 2010 World Series.

Instead of a Cy Young winning post season stud (up to that point) they traded him for a guy with one good first half and will miss all of 2012 and part of 2013 before he throws a single pitch for the Yankees.

Meanwhile the Mariners wound up getting him anyway AND was able to deal Lee for prospects. Yeah, Justin Smoak has been a disappointment. But pitcher Blake Beavan has shown promise.

In a way, Montero's production this season is almost irrelevant in evaluating this trade in the short term.
Listening to the Yankee broadcast yesterday, Suzyn Waldman stuck to the company talking points saying that Montero hasn't been tearing up Seattle, creating a false equivalency that the trade might be equally bad for both teams. (This was before Montero crushed a Piazza like homer last night.)

Even if Montero finishes with a .100 OPS and winds up vomiting into Ichiro's cap during a game, this trade is still disastrous in the short term. Montero's Yankee role and position was "Prime Trade Chip."

He was the bait to fill the inevitable pitching holes and needed to be spent wisely.

And he wasn't.

And I think the Mariners no longer feel like the loser of that deal.

The official (and kind of crazy) Sully Baseball Predictions for 2012

With the season beginning in less than 12 hours, it is time to make some bold predictions for 2012.

And yeah, some of them might be out there.

But let me ask you this:
Last year before the season what if I said “I don’t think the Red Sox, Braves nor Giants are making the playoffs but I think the Diamondbacks did”?

You’d think I’d be bonkers.
And I’d be right. So remember that before you comment.

AL East Champion 

TAMPA BAY RAYS

Too much good pitching and lots of 2 wins out of 3 against bad teams. 

AL Central Champion 

DETROIT TIGERS 

Too much fire power and too much pitching to not repeat. 

AL West Champion 

LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM 

Pujols gives the lineup a kick. They already have 2 aces. 

AL Wild Cards 

NEW YORK YANKEES 

TEXAS RANGERS 

The Yankees are no longer great but they are at least good enough to win 93. The 2 time defending AL Champs will fall just short of the Division title but sneak in with the new format. 

NL East Champion 

MIAMI MARLINS 

The Phillies health becomes an issue and the Marlins get a huge boost from the new pick ups and the return of ace Josh Johnson. 

NL Central Champion 

PITTSBURGH PIRATES 

You read that right. The Reds are overrated. The Cardinals are in a dark new territory. The Brewers take a step back. The Cubs and Astros stink. The Pirates win the Division with 83 wins. 

NL West Champion 

LOS ANGELES DODGERS 

You read that right too. The NL Cy Young winner and a potential MVP are the building blocks on a team that no longer has the McCourt cloud hanging over their heads. They had a winning season last year. This year they’ll win 90 and the West. 

NL Wild Cards 

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES 

 SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 

The Giants rebound and battle the Dodgers down the stretch. The Phillies fade in the East but hang on for a Wild Card invite. A potential Lincecum vs. Halladay one game show down? 

Post Season Predictions:

Wild Card Games 
RANGERS def. YANKEES 
PHILLIES def. GIANTS 

Division Series 
RAYS def. RANGERS 
ANGELS def. TIGERS 
PHILLIES def. DODGERS 
MARLINS def. PIRATES

League Championship Series 
ANGELS def. RAYS 
MARLINS def. PHILLIES

World Series 
MARLINS def. ANGELS 

That’s right, I’m predicting the Marlins will win their third World Series in as many decades.

 Let’s go for some individual awards:

AL MVP: EVAN LONGORIA, Rays
NL MVP: MATT KEMP, Dodgers

AL Cy Young: CC SABATHIA, Yankees
NL Cy Young: TIM LINCECUM, Giants

AL Rookie of the Year: JESUS MONTERO, Mariners
NL Rookie of the Year: DREW POMERANZ, Rockies

AL Manager of the Year: RON WASHINGTON, Rangers
NL Manager of the Year: DON MATTINGLY, Dodgers

First AL Manager Fired: JOHN FARRELL, Blue Jays
 First NL Manager Fired: BRAD MILLS, Astros

So there you have it. A Dodgers Division? The Pirates making the playoffs on the 20th anniversary of their last post season spot? No Red Sox?

Yup.

Those are my picks… and I’m sticking with them.

Call me crazy.

A very interesting trade...

Michael Pineda for Jesus Montero.

I am not sure what to make of this trade between the Mariners and the Yankees.

On the one hand it seems to make sense for both teams.

On the other hand it makes sense for neither team.

It's not often a trade can be so perplexing but at the same time refreshing.

For the Yankees, they got Michael Pineda. At 23 years old he has already made the All Star team and gives New York youth they desperately need in the pitching staff.

Then again, he tailed off badly in the second half and seemed to pitch better in pitcher friendly Safeco Field. And the AL East beat him like a drum. And his home run rate rose dramatically in the second half.

Cause for concern?

Meanwhile the Jesus Montero era in New York lasted a whopping 18 regular season and 1 post season game.

The future home grown slugger is heading to the Pacific Northwest and presumably his #63 will never be retired in Monument Park.

He's a right handed masher who was ranked one of the top 5 prospects in all of baseball in back to back seasons.

Maybe he's not a long term solution at catcher but he could have caught a season with Russell Martin and split DH duties.

He might have been part of a NEW "Core Four!"

But off he goes. A homegrown talent going to spend his career elsewhere.

Some Mariner blogs are comparing him to Miguel Cabrera.

Then again lots of bloggers complained to me when I didn't call Colby Rasmus an elite player. It's one thing to be a prospect.

It's another thing to produce.

(I'm looking at YOU Alex Ochoa.)

And hitting doesn't win titles. Pitching does. The Yankees were banking on the likes of Freddy Garcia, Phil Hughes and A. J. Burnett to keep them in 60% of their games. You can always sign a hitter, but 23 year old All Star pitchers don't grow on trees?

Pineda joins a staff where he, Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes would all be under 26. Suddenly the rotation isn't so ancient. They are a turn around season from Hughes away from Cashman's vision of a young core of pitchers backing up Sabathia.

Throw in David Robertson and suddenly the Yankees might have their pitching foundation for the next 6 or 7 years.

(Just ask Joba Chamberlain.)

Provided Pineda isn't a one year fluke who gets torched in Yankee Stadium. (Remember how Jeff Weaver was going to be the young ace of the team?)

But there is more than one team in this deal.

The Mariners stink.

They've lost 95 or more games 3 of the last 4 years.

And with Ichiro in the final year of his deal, his Mariner tenure will likely end without a single World Series appearance.

The same was said for Griffey's time in Seattle...

And Edgar Martinez's...

And Randy Johnson's...

And Alex Rodriguez's...

And no doubt Felix Hernandez's time will end pennant-less in the Pacific Northwest.

They need to mix it up. And a player that Brian Cashman once said could be a new Manny Ramirez.

Maybe put Montero along side young Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley and the Mariners will build a nice line up.

But I thought the Mariners best hopes to finally win the pennant was to take the Giants blue print. Stockpile pitching and win around your dynamic ace.

And the West could be won with great pitching. And shut down an East, Central or Wild Card opponent in a short series then play a National League style World Series... that was the Mariners ticket.

And I thought Michael Pineda could have been the Matt Cain to Hernandez's Lincecum.

So what's my take on the trade?

I literally have no clue.

It could be great for both or blow up in both of their faces.

The Yankees could have their young rotation and the Mariners could get a dominant lineup.

Or the Yankees could have a bust pitcher while the Mariners picked up a hitter with no position who can't handle big league pitching.

Maybe they should have stayed on their original teams.