The Greatest Last Day of the Season... the Worst First Day of the Post Season

After a mindbogglingly amazing (if agonizing for Red Sox fans) finale to the season, I thought "Man, if this is what the playoffs are going to be like then October is going to be incredible."

Well if tonight was any indication of how it is going to unfold, then this post season will be the biggest let down of anything that didn't have Kingdom of the Crystal Skull in the title.

Yeah it was cool that Matt Moore had his second ever big league start in the playoffs and he dominated the Defending American League Champs. But guess what? The game was a snooze fest.

And off to New York for the best game 1 match up of the year and we get one inning... and rain.
Enough rain to call the damn game.

Enough rain to make Verlander vs. Sabathia into Nova vs. Fister.
Enough rain to make the Yankees and Tigers waste their ace over one inning.

If the rain was that bad in the second, why start the game in the first?
Is this the 2008 World Series all over again?

The thing that made me pick the Tigers for the Division Series was the idea of Verlander pitching twice. I expected him to go deep in each game... deeper than one.

Personally I would start Verlander in Game 2.
Make someone do a double take to see him starting Game 1 and 2 of the playoffs.

I better see some closer games and closer inspection of the weather report tomorrow.
It's supposed to rain tomorrow. I hope they don't get 2 innings in and push it to Sunday.

My post season picks... and my mother in law's, son's and a coin flip

It's time to make my official post season picks... and as always I compare them to some other picks.

My mom will make her picks and so will my dad.

My mother in law will have her predictions.

My twin 6 year old boys will give it their best shot.

And I will toss a coin.

Usually, someone else is much more reliable than me.

SULLY'S POST SEASON PICKS

Division Series:

Tigers over Yankees in 5.

Rays over Rangers in 4.

Phillies over Cardinals in 3.

Diamondbacks over Brewers in 4.

LCS:

Rays over Tigers in 5.

Phillies over Diamondbacks in 6.

World Series:

Phillies over Rays in 7.

SULLY'S MOTHER IN LAW'S POST SEASON PICKS

Division Series:

Yankees def. Tigers

Rays def. Rangers

Phillies def. Cardinals

Brewers def. Diamondbacks

LCS:

Rays def. Yankees

Phillies def. Brewers

World Series:

Phillies def. Rays

SULLY'S SON MATTY'S POST SEASON PICKS

Division Series:

Tigers def. Yankees

Rangers def. Rays

Cardinals def. Phillies

Brewers def. Diamondbacks

LCS:

Tigers def. Rangers (Tigers have strong legs)

Brewers def. Cardinals

World Series:

Tigers def. Brewers

SULLY'S SON AIDAN'S POST SEASON PICKS

Division Series:
Rays def. Rangers
Tigers def. Yankees
Phillies def. Cardinals
Diamondbacks def. Brewers

LCS:
Tigers def. Rays
Phillies def. Diamondbacks

World Series:
Tigers def. Phillies

A COIN TOSS

Division Series:

Rays over Rangers in 3

Tigers over Yankees in 4

Phillies over Cardinals in 5

Brewers over Diamondbacks in 3

LCS:
Rays over Tigers in 6.
Brewers over Phillies in 7

World Series:
Rays over Brewers in 5

So our picks are in...
And if you are a betting man, ignore my picks.

What Fox Wants For The World Series... 2011 Edition

It has become a tradition at Sully Baseball. For the fifth consecutive, me and the staff try to figure out what Fox wants for their World Series match up and rank them from biggest ratings potential to absolute disaster.

We did it in 2007.

We did it in 2008.

We did it in 2009.

We made a video for it in 2010.

And now we have 2011.

Now keep in mind, this is not what I want nor what would make for the best baseball. This is solely taking into account what media markets and fan bases Fox wants to tap into.

And seeing that nobody in baseball seems to know how to market a team that doesn't play in Boston, New York or Philadelphia, there will be a lot of East Coast Bias.

Teams like the Rays, Diamondbacks and Brewers should be media darlings. But they aren't. That would take effort.

And of course Fox Sports executives wet their pants when the Red Sox stumbled out of the playoff picture. Lots of transplanted Red Sox fans are around the country which means lots of eyeballs on the TV. Now they have to do that thing that all TV networks hate to do: Make an effort to find an audience.

Now of course what they SHOULD want is a 7 game intense World Series. Short of that, let's see what they want to sell.

1. Yankees vs. Phillies

Once again, this is what they REALLY want. Two Northeastern teams and recent champs with lots of fans sprinkled across the country. Lots of recognizable names on both teams. A rematch of the 2009 series, which was one of the highest rated series in recent years. This would require the least amount of effort to sell and probably be the most popular. And of course, as fans bitch and moan about big budget East coast teams dominating the press, a meeting of two northeastern powers with the two biggest payrolls in baseball will undoubtedly draw the biggest ratings. Go figure.

2. Yankees vs. Cardinals

If any team can match the passion of the northeastern baseball fans, it is the Cardinals. With one of the biggest and most loyal fan bases in the country and many transplanted fans, this has the potential of being a great draw. The Cardinals didn't draw any viewers outside of their fan base in 2006, but against the Yankees there would be a clear villain.

3. Yankees vs. Diamondbacks

Normally any series involving Arizona wouldn't get much buzz (even though it should because they are a young exciting and energetic team.) But having the Yankees and Diamondbacks meet again on the 10th anniversary of the Post September 11th World Series would be pretty special. Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera are still suiting up for the Yankees 10 years later.

4. Yankees vs. Brewers

The last of the Yankee match ups, which means the last potential match up that Fox would possibly want. Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun coming to Yankee Stadium would be sweet. So would Bob Uecker calling the games on the radio. Plus there are enough midwesterners all across the country who would adopt the Brewers.





Now after this, sadly, the match ups would require baseball and Fox to market their sport and not just rely on the fans they take for granted. Which will NEVER happen. So even though virtually every single OTHER match up would include young superstars, solid pitching and potentially exciting baseball, Fox and MLB are dreading each and every one of them.

Let's list them anyway.

5. Rays vs. Phillies

A rematch of the 2008 World Series best remembered for a prolonged rain delay. I put this one high up because if the Rays get this far it would probably mean they would have slain both the Red Sox and Yankees. The little team that could would take on all three Northeastern Goliaths and win. That would be an amazing story. Too bad you can't sell a story like that.

6. Tigers vs. Phillies

The Phillies are the only potential National brand in the National League. And Detroit has a lot of fans living across the country because... well... a lot of people wanted out of Detroit. A Verlander vs. Halladay Game 1 would be amazing. So would Hall and Oates singing the National Anthem in Philadelphia and Eminem singing in Detroit.

7. Rangers vs Phillies

Can Texas become a baseball haven? They are incredibly likable and exciting. But that's football country. Just ask any fan of Friday Night Lights! And this could be a little Good Ole Boys vs. South Jersey rivalry. Sirloin vs. Cheesesteaks.

8. Tigers vs. Cardinals

Because EVERYONE loved the 2006 World Series. It's the "Maybe Leyland will have the pitchers take infield practice before the Series" Series.

9. Rays vs. Cardinals

The "If you put money on this being the World Series match up on September 1st you will be a millionaire" Series. The two teams that stormed into the playoffs after being left for dead going head to head would be great TV. So would seeing the fun and loose Joe Maddon square off against hard nose by the book written about him Tony LaRussa.

10. Rangers vs. Cardinals

The "To Hell With Either Coast" Series. Pujols hitting in the launching pad of Arlington. Hamilton, Young et al taking aim in St. Louis. A city of great baseball tradition against a team with a budding tradition. The Cardinals will bring out Ozzie Smith, Stan Musial, Bruce Sutter, Lou Brock and Bob Gibson. The Rangers will have Nolan Ryan and... um... Toby Harrah?

11. Tigers vs. Brewers

Nothing like two franchises that have never met square off against each other in the World Series. Sadly that isn't happening here. Here you have two teams that not too long ago were in the same division. I guess the fans of Detroit and Milwaukee will have fun driving through Chicago and honking at Cub fans on the way to the World Series games.

12. Rangers vs. Brewers

It's the "We both got rid of Carlos Lee before his contract became a behemoth" Series. (Seriously, what other history do these two teams have?)

13. Rays vs. Brewers

The "Maybe we can convince everyone it is a Buccaneers vs. Packers game" Series. Again, the teams will be filled with some of the most exciting players in baseball each fighting for the franchise's first ever World Series title. But something like that can't be promoted or used to get fans attention. How can that? It's not New York, Boston or Chicago?

14. Rangers vs. Diamondbacks

The "Is it hot enough for you?" Series. Or perhaps the "It's Hot but it's a dry heat" Series. You certainly can't claim East Coast bias in a series played in Texas and the desert.

15. Rays vs. Diamondbacks

Ironically, THIS is the series that fans should be hoping for. Two low budget, small payroll team with home grown stars made smart moves and made it to the World Series with guts, determination and smart baseball. You stick Brad Pitt in the middle of this World Series and people would pay attention. Instead it will probably be a ratings disaster... which is a disgrace.

16. Tigers vs. Diamondbacks

The World Series will be shown regionally. The rest of the country will see "The Making of Terra Nova."



So I will be watching no matter who is playing. I don't think there is a bad match up in the bunch. But what do I know? I'm not at Fox.

Terry Francona to leave the Red Sox... STUPID STUPID Red Sox

Terry Francona is not coming back to the Red Sox.
It is a monumentally stupid decision.

Terry Francona didn't assemble this pitching staff.
Terry Francona didn't make a series of bone numbingly stupid moves.
Terry Francona isn't an incompetent pitching coach.

Had Dan Johnson and Nolan Reimold swung and missed he would have had the Red Sox in the playoffs using four pitchers with ERAs over 5 in the month of September.

This wasn't Terry's fault.
And the man who outmanaged Joe Torre in 2004 and won the only 2 World Series the Red Sox have won since World War I is being booted.

Stupid stupid stupid.

New Sully Baseball Video "It Wasn't Bill Buckner's Fault"

Maybe it is appropriate that I bring up the Bill Buckner play the day after the Red Sox did the Great Faceplant of 2011.

In the latest Sully Baseball video, I am starting a new series.

"Baseball Myths and Facts." And it turns out there are so many of them that I will do a few videos on this topic.

I tackle the Buckner error first because even really good baseball people get that one wrong.

Enjoy the video.

And as always, you can see all the videos at my ShortForm TV page.

We interrupt our Red Sox sorrow to crap on Colby Rasmus

As the Cardinals celebrated their improbable run to the National League Wild Card, I saw all the players dumping beer on each other and hugging.

Who wasn't there?
Colby Rasmus.

Remember him? The guy who bitched and moaned his way out of St. Louis.
The guy I crapped on last year for complaining about playing time to LaRussa.
The guy who suddenly had a bunch of defenders chewing me out, talking as if he was an elite player (????)

The Cardinals sent him packing to Toronto, where he got hurt and was lousy when he played.
(A .173 average, .201 on base, .517 OPS and 37 OPS+ stinks no matter how few games you play.)

The Cardinals were 55-48 on July 26th... his last day as a Cardinal.
They went 35-24 without him.

Now of course they were in FIRST PLACE on July 26th, so I guess his defenders could say they fell out of first without him.

But I can't help but wonder if the Cardinals won partially because the guys in the clubhouse were the ones who were on the same page.

Maybe if Colby Rasmus didn't act like a 23 year old who thought he invented the game, he'd be going to the post season too.

Ah well.
He will be good NEXT year... (not 2012. I mean the perpetual NEXT year for prospects who never make it.)

OK. Back to Red Sox misery.

For the AL MVP vote, it is Verlander over Ellsbury

If Dan Johnson and Nolan Reimold both struck out last night in the bottom of the 9th, the Red Sox would be in the playoffs.

And if they were in the playoffs, Jacoby Ellsbury, who led the American League in total bases, hit .321, had an OPS of .928 out of the lead off spot, had an OPS+ of 146, hit 32 homers, drove in 105 runs, stole 39 bases, had a 7.2 WAR and hit key homers down the stretch, would be the AL MVP.

But they are not in the playoffs. Dan Johnson and Nolan Reimold did NOT swing and miss.
And now it should go to Justin Verlander.

No one player had the impact that he did. The Tigers did not go on a prolonged losing streak after April. The Tigers had a solid bullpen and were consistent each month after April.

And the biggest reason is they knew every 5 days they had a win and the bullpen essentially had a night off. He won 13 of his last 15 starts including 12 in a row, giving the Tigers 7 or more innings in all but 2 of them.

Even the nights where he didn't have his best stuff, he made sure the bullpen wasn't taxed. And the line up didn't have to score a ton to pull out a win.

And he led the league in wins, winning percentage, starts, innings, strikeouts, ERA, ERA+, fewest hits for 9 innings and fewest baserunners over 9 innings.

And he threw a no hitter.

His value impacted the games before and after he pitched, so don't give me the nonsense that he only played in 34 games.

He also faced 969 batters.
Did any every day player have 969 plate appearances?

Didn't think so.

Give it to Verlander... although with two missed swings it would have been Ellsbury.

THE FINAL TALLY

Think was a teeth grinder?

This was a franchise changer.
The Mets haven't been able to shrug 2007 and they won't until they win the World Series.

See also the 2011 Boston Red Sox.

For the last time all year, I will update the tally.

DODGED BULLET GAMES - 48

April 8 - 9-6 win against the Yankees. (The Sox end their 6 game losing streak with a slugfest. John Lackey stinks but Phil Hughes stinks even more.)
April 10 - 4-0 win against the Yankees. (Beckett and Sabathia duel in a game that was 1-0 until the late innings.)
April 20 - 5-3 win in Oakland. (Red Sox survive a lead off homer and two bases loaded situations and facing the tying run at the plate to win their first road game.)
April 21 - 4-2 win in Anaheim. (The Red Sox stranded 15 men on base and Josh Beckett's went 8 strong with no decision. But the Sox rallied in the 11th to win.)
April 22 - 4-3 win in Anaheim. (Peter Bourjos makes a 2 run errors and the Red Sox survive a bizarre passed ball by Jarrod Saltalamacchia that let a run scored from second.)
May 1 - 3-2 win against the Mariners. (Ichiro loses a ball in the sun that turns into a 9th inning triple for Lowrie. Crawford singles him home for the win.)
May 8 - 9-5 win against the Twins. (Dice-K lets up 3 runs in the first but settles down as the Red Sox clobber Carl Pavano.)

May 9 - 2-1 win against the Twins. (A bullpen breakdown cost Beckett the decision but Cark Crawford ended the game with an 11th inning walk off hit.)
May 13 - 5-4 win in the Bronx. (Youkilis homers off of Joba and Bard and Papelbon make it more interesting than it needed to be.)
May 15 - 7-5 win in the Bronx. (Sox fall behind 4-1 but come back as Youk, Papi and Salty all homer.)
May 16 - 8-7 win against the Orioles. (Down 6-0 after 6 innings, the Sox rally and win it with a 2 run walk off double by Adrian Gonzalez)
May 18 - 1-0 win against Detroit. (With 2 outs in the 8th, Salty doubles home Crawford from first for the only run. Papelbon gets himself in and out of 9th inning trouble.)
May 19 - 4-3 win against Detroit. (Bard blows Beckett's lead but Carl Crawford wins it with a walk off hit.)
May 24 - 4-2 win in Cleveland. (Varitek throws two runners out and homers as the Red Sox win their first game against the Indians.)
May 29 - 4-3 win in Detroit. (The Red Sox blow an early 3-0 lead but David Ortiz wins the game with a pinch 9th inning homer.)
June 3 - 8-6 win against Oakland. (Buchholz lets up 4 runs in the first but the Sox come back thanks to Carl Crawford's 2 run single.)
June 4 - 9-8 win against Oakland. (Red Sox blow a 4 run 9th inning lead and trail in the 11th before Ellsbury ties it and Drew wins it in 14.)
June 7 - 6-4 win in the Bronx. (Papelbon strikes out A-Rod to end the game with a runner on base.)
June 9 - 8-3 win in the Bronx. (Down 2-0 to Sabathia in the 7th, the Sox score 7 runs as Papi exacts revenge after getting plunked. A 3+ hour rain delay pushed the game past 1:30 AM)

June 15 - 3-0 win in Tampa Bay. (Youkilis homers in the 7th for the only runs in Beckett's 1 hit masterpiece.)
June 16 - 4-2 win in Tampa Bay. (Papelbon wiggles out of a 2 on, nobody out jam in the 9th thanks to Youk's diving catch.)
June 26 - 4-2 win in Pittsburgh. (The Pirates make 4 errors and the Red Sox score 2 in the 7th to avoid a sweep by the Bucs.
June 30 - 5-2 win in Philadelphia.(An injury to Cole Hamels leads to the Red Sox bats waking up.)
July 1 - 7-5 win in Houston. (The Sox score 6 in the 7th inning to come back and win.)
July 3 - 2-1 win in Houston. (The Red Sox score a run in the top of the 9th on a walk to break a tie.)
July 5 - 3-2 win against Toronto. (Lester gets hurt but Darnel McDonald throws out the tying run at the plate to end the game.)
July 6 - 6-4 win against Toronto. (The Sox score 4 in the 4th to take the lead and Wakefield and company hang on for dear life.)
July 10 - 8-6 win against Baltimore. (The Orioles score 6 runs off of rookie Kyle Weiland in the second, but the Red Sox hit three homers in the bottom of the second to tie the game and hold for dear life.)
July 16 - 9-5 win in Tampa. (Lackey puts the Sox in a 3-0 first inning hole, but 3 Sox homers bring them back for the win.)
July 17 - 1-0 win in Tampa. (Beckett throws a masterpiece and the bullpen throws 8 amazing innings. But the Sox bats go dead, leaving 17 men on base before Pedroia drove in a run with 2 outs in the 16th inning.)
July 18 - 15-10 win in Baltimore. (The Sox blow a 6-2 lead but score 8 runs in the 8th to take the game.)
July 22 - 7-4 win against Seattle. (John Lackey beat Felix Hernandez and Mike Carp's error helped the Red Sox score 5 in the 7th to give them some breathing room.)
July 23 - 3-1 win against Seattle. (Ellsbury gets Beckett off the hook in a tight pitchers duel when he got a 2 out, 2 strike 2 run go ahead single in the 8th.)
July 26 - 13-9 win against the Royals. (The Sox trailed in the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th before the bats exploded in the 5th.
August 2 - 3-2 win against Cleveland. (Youk tied the game with a 6th inning homer and Salty dove home for the winning run in the 9th.)
August 3 - 4-3 win against Cleveland. (Ellsbury hits a walk off shot in the 9th.)
August 7 - 3-2 win against the Yankees (The Sox rally off of Rivera in the 9th and win on Josh Reddick's 10th inning single)
August 8 - 8-6 win in Minnesota. (Down 5-1, the Red Sox rally back, then score twice in the 9th to give the Sox the win.)
August 9 - 4-3 win in Minnesota. (Darnell McDonald's homer ties the game and Ortiz singles home the game winner as Bard worked out of trouble in the 7th.)
August 12 - 6-4 win in Seattle. (Reddick and Ortiz homered to bail out Lackey.)

August 16 - 3-1 win against Tampa Bay. (Pedroia makes a diving catch in the 9th to help preserve the win.)
August 18 - 4-3 win at Kansas City. (Sox hold on despite having three base runners thrown out by the outfielders.)
August 31 - 9-5 win against the Yankees. (Beckett blows a 4-1 lead but homers by Ellsbury and Varitek put the Sox on top.)
September 13 - 18-6 win against Toronto. (Wakefield blows 2 early leads but the Sox bats explode in the 6th to earn Wakes win #200.)

September 16 - 4-3 win against Tampa Bay. (Beckett, Aceves, Bard and Papelbon all wiggled out of jams to give the Red Sox a critical win.)
September 19 - 18-9 win against Baltimore. (Lackey was given 11 runs to work with but the Orioles cut it to 11-9 before a 7 run rally put the game away.)
September 25 - 7-4 win in the Bronx. (The Red Sox came back from a 3-0 hole to win in the 14th on Jacoby Ellsbury's 2 out 3 run homer and avoid a sweep.)
September 27 - 8-7 win in Baltimore. (Ryan Lavarnway hits 2 homers and somehow Papelbon hangs on to keep the Red Sox tied with the Rays.)

TEETH GRINDER GAMES - 46

April 1 - 9-5 loss in Texas. (The Sox tie Opening Day in the 8th with an Ortiz homer only to have Bard implode and the Sox let up 4 in the bottom of the 8th.)

April 5 - 3-1 loss in Cleveland. (The Sox drop their 4th straight as the bats are dead in Cleveland.)
April 7 - 1-0 loss in Cleveland. (Sox blow a great Lester performance on a squeeze bunt and Darnell McDonald overrunning the bag to end the game.)
April 12 - 3-2 loss to Tampa Bay. (A solid Lester performance is wasted as Kyle Farnsworth of all people shuts down the Sox.)
April 15 - 7-6 loss to Toronto. (Bobby Jenks implodes with a 4 run seventh inning as the Red Sox waste Pedroia and Youkilis homers and a clutch RBI double by Scuatro.
April 19 - 5-0 loss in Oakland. (Pedroia gets picked off, the Sox bats go dead and waste a solid Lackey start.)
April 26 - 4-1 loss in Baltimore. (Buchholz pitches tentatively and the Sox let Kevin Gregg of all people to close out the 9th.)
April 27 - 5-4 loss in Baltimore. (The Sox tie the game with a 3 run 8th only to have Bard lose it in the bottom of the 8th.)
April 29 - 5-4 loss to Mariners. (Bobby Jenks blows a 7th inning lead, wasting 2 Mike Cameron homers.)
April 30 - 2-0 loss to Mariners. (The Sox strand 11 runners and let Milton Bradley double home the go ahead run.)
May 4 - 5-3 loss to Angels. (7 hours with rain delays and stranded runners. Marco Scutaro was thrown out at the plate in the 12th)
May 10 - 7-6 loss in Toronto. (8th and 9th inning heroics, including a homer by Adrian Gonzalez, are undone by a walk off sacrifice fly by David Cooper.)
May 21 - 9-3 loss to Cubs. (Up 3-1 in the 8th inning, the bullpen and defense implode. The Cubs score 8 runs while both teams wear their 1918 uniforms.)
May 23- 3-2 loss in Cleveland. (The Sox blow a 2-1 8th inning lead when the Indians rally with 2 outs. Crawford ends the game on a double play.)
May 29 - 3-0 loss in Detroit. (Verlander keeps the Sox off base and prevents the sweep.)
June 1 - 7-4 loss to White Sox. (Konerko drives in three, spoiling a game tying Ortiz homer.)

June 14 - 4-0 loss in Tampa Bay. (Wakefield's solid outing is spoiled. Longoria scores on a passed ball.)
June 18 - 4-2 loss to Milwaukee. (The Brewers hit three homers early off of Lester and hang on.)
June 21 - 5-4 loss to San Diego. (Ortiz hits a double play in the 9th to stifle a potential winning rally.)

June 24 - 3-1 loss to Pittsburgh. (The Red Sox strand 7 runners in scoring position.)
June 25 - 6-4 loss to Pittsburgh. (The Red Sox fall out of first as Pedroia's error leads to a Pirates run.)
June 29 - 2-1 loss in Philadelphia. (Vance Worley duels John Lackey and slumping Raul Ibanez drives in both runs.)
July 4 - 9-7 loss to Toronto. (John Lackey's miserable start puts the Sox in too big a hole to climb out of.)
July 19 - 6-2 loss in Baltimore. (Scutaro gets thrown out stealing and the Orioles tack on 3 big runs late.)

July 25 - 3-1 loss to the Royals. (Scutaro botches a potential game winning squeeze play in the 12th as the Red Sox lose in 14.)

July 28 - 4-3 loss to the Royals. (Crawford's bid for a walk off homer falls just short.)
July 29 - 3-1 loss to the White Sox. (Sox blow a late 1-0 lead and spoil a solid Wakefield start.)

August 1 - 9-6 loss to Cleveland. (Asdrubal Cabrera's second home run was an 8th inning tie breaking shot off of Daniel Bard.)

August 4 - 7-3 loss to Cleveland. (Carlos Santana's homer broke a 3-3 tie.)
August 5 - 3-2 loss to the Yankees. (The Sox leave the bases loaded in the 5th and the Yankees score 3 in the 6th to take the lead.)
August 10 - 5-2 in Minnesota. (The Twins score 3 in the 8th, spoiling Ortiz's game tying homer.)
August 13 - 5-4 loss in Seattle. (Mariners score 5 in the first and the Red Sox come back falls short.)
August 14 - 5-3 loss in Seattle. (The Red Sox comeback falls short as Wakefield loses a complete game).

August 16 - 6-2 loss against Tampa Bay. (The Red Sox pull a triple play but a late rally by the Rays puts the game out of reach.)

August 21 - 9-4 loss at Kansas City. (The Royals' 8 run 6th spoils a 4-1 Sox lead and Wakefield's bid to win 200 games.)
August 30 - 5-2 loss to the Yankees. (Sabathia finally beats the Sox and Cervelli's homer sparks bean balls.)
September 1 - 4-2 loss to the Yankees. (Russell Martin's 2 run double in the 7th put the Yankees on top for good. Rivera struck out Gonzalez with the bases loaded to end the game.)

September 5 - 1-0 loss in Toronto. (Beckett sprains his ankle and Brett Lawrie homered in the 11th to win.)
September 7 - 11-10 loss in Toronto. (Bard melts down in the 8th, preventing Tim Wakefield's 200th win. Aviles is thrown out trying to steal to end the game.)
September 10 - 6-5 loss in Tampa Bay. (Sox get 2 homers in the 9th to tie the game only to lose it in the 11th.)
September 14 - 5-4 loss to Toronto. (Adam Loewen singled home 2 runs in the Blue Jays 3 run 8th inning, making Bard a loser AGAIN!)
September 17 - 4-3 loss to Tampa Bay. (Scutaro grounds out to end the game with the tying run on second.)
September 19 - 6-5 loss to Baltimore. (Kyle Weiland gets bombed, Darnell McDonald drops a ball, a fair ball is called foul... just a bad day all around.)
September 20 - 7-5 loss to Baltimore. ( hit a 3 run double with 2 outs in the 8th to give Baltimore the win.)
September 21 - 6-4 loss to Baltimore. (Crawford goes 3-4 but Beckett can't hold onto a lead as the Orioles rally in the 8th.)
September 26 - 6-3 loss to Baltimore. (An inside the park homer off of Ellsbury's glove put the game away and the Rays caught Boston.)
September 28 - 4-3 loss in Baltimore. (The Red Sox season implodes as the Orioles rally with 2 outs and nobody on to shock Papelbon and send the Red Sox spiraling.)

+2.

Yup. The Red Sox won 2 more games that they should have lost than lost games they should have won.

In a season with a historic collapse, you'd think the opposite would be true. But using this as a guide, the Sox could have been described as a clutch team.

Just goes to show how numbers can be deceiving.

The Braves are happy the Red Sox lost

How happy are the Braves that the Red Sox flopped so badly?
The Braves collapse was almost as bad as Bostons!
And they blew a 9th inning lead and couldn't score a run in the 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th which could have forced a playoff with the Cardinals.

And yet it won't get 1/100,000,000,000th the attention as the Red Sox collapse.

I guess there ARE advantages to playing in Atlanta instead of New England.

If the Red Sox only were mediocre at the beginning and end

So the Red Sox blew the incredible lead to play golf this October. They were shockingly dreadful in September.

But remember how they lost their first 6 games and 10 of their first 12?
The Red Sox finished the season 90-72.

And they were 11-15 in April and a eye popping 7-20 in September.

In other words they were 18-35 in April and September and 72-37 the rest of the season.

Imagine if they weren't awful but merely mediocre at the bookends of the season.
Instead of being 17 games under .500 in those 2 months, what if they were just 1 game under .500?

That would be a 26-27 record in the 53 games of April and September. Not unreasonable for a consensus World Series pick.

And if they did that and played the rest of the season the same way, they would have had a 98-64 record... a game ahead of the Yankees.

If only they rose to the level of "eh."

7 THINGS RED SOX FANS SHOULD BE HAPPY ABOUT TONIGHT!

OK, it might not seem like there is much to be happy about tonight. The Rays were getting killed... the Red Sox were winning.

The Rays were a strike away from losing and the Sox were a strike away from winning.

And then NOTHING went right.
So what can we feel GOOD about?

I found a few things.

1. Young Red Sox fans have THEIR moment of angst!

I have a formula that you start to follow a team and know the players when you are 7 or 8 years old.

Keeping that in mind, every Red Sox fan 15 years or younger only know the Sox as a team that is capable of winning the World Series. The idea of them being able to let you down is unheard of for them. They are too young to remember Aaron Boone... they have memories of 2004 but much clearer ones of 2007.

Now they have experienced 2011. They can turn to us older fans and say "Was it ALWAYS like this?" And we can say "It was WORSE!"


2. The loss shows that we are stronger as a fan base

Since winning the 2004 and 2007 World Series, the Red Sox lost a heart breaking 7 game series against Tampa, saw a Papelbon melt down to end the 2009 playoffs, missed the playoffs in back to back seasons including this year's historic face plant.

And oh yeah. The Yankees won a World Series in that stretch.

A season like this will toughen us up a bit. Maybe it will weed out some of the band wagon pink hat fans.

And frankly the losses don't hurt as badly as they used to. You don't have the "When will I EVER see them win?" angst.

And when the Sox DO win again, it will be sweeter.


3. Isn't it nice to lose without being reminded how long its been since you've won?

There were no black and white clips. No Bucky Dent homers being shown on a loop. No mentions of curses. Nobody was looking for a piano in the bottom of a lake in Sudbury.

This wasn't metaphysical.
The answer to the question "Why did the Red Sox lose in 2011" isn't being posed to an exorcist.

It is about baseball. Their pitching sucked.
Most of their starting pitchers were awful. Bard was rotten. No mystery.

4. There was no 2011 Red Sox champagne celebration

Even if they won, they didn't earn it.



5. Maybe this will help Theo kick his "expensive free agent habit."

Theo helped construct two World Series winners by following the blue print of the 1990's Yankees.

These days they resemble the Yankees of the 1980s! Expensive, full of stars and yet not good enough to make the post season.

For the second straight year, injuries and a shockingly thin pitching staff derailed the Red Sox. And some gigantic unmovable contracts are eating up payroll.

With J. D. Drew and Daisuke Matsuzaka coming off of the books, the temptation will be "BUY MORE STARS!" I say no. Develop more Ryan Lavarnways! Throw that money into developing players from within.

Remember, we were all happy when Crawford arrived. And how symbolic was it that the ball JUST eluded Crawford to end the season while his old team went on to win because of superior young talent and a stronger farm system.

Another title can't be bought, Theo. Develop the next winner. We'll wait.


6. We still have the old DVDs to watch

The era of Idiots and Cowboy Up is over.

Varitek, Wakefield and Ortiz may or may not even be on the team next year. Papelbon is probably gone. Drew and Dice-K (both 2007 post season heroes) are all but gone.

Manny, Schilling, Pedro, Lowell, Meuller, Damon... they are all gone.

A new Sox team is slowly emerging. Pedroia, Gonzalez, Youk and Ellsbury are the new leaders but whenever a new pennant winner will emerge, it will look and feel quite different from the '04 and '07 team.

It's the end of the greatest stretch in Red Sox history.
Let's savor it.

It wasn't long ago that were were resigned to the fact that we would NEVER see our team win the World Series.

It's happened twice. It's been glorious.
It's over. And man it was fun.

7. You can spend this October with your family

Remember them?
Instead of fretting over the Red Sox all October and cursing at the screen, go talk to your wife, your kids, your husband, your mom and dad.

Go do some fun fall things.
Oh make a self deprecating Red Sox joke while you are at it, but you will be amazed how much time you will have on your hands now.

And wear your Sox hat while you go out too!

Show that you are not a fair weather fan.

Yeah it was a rough night. But that's what makes us tough fans.

Walk tall Sox fans.

Do you really expect me to write about tonight?

It was the greatest regular season day in baseball history.
And I stand by my opinion that if today, with the Braves extra inning loss, the Rays mind boggling come from behind win, the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Tigers and Rangers fighting for home field advantage on LABOR DAY it would be the biggest sporting event of the summer.

Alas.
The Red Sox did a face plant.
An all time face plant.

This was worse than the 2007 Mets.
This will stink over the Red Sox franchise until they win another World Series.

Ah well.

Time for beddy bye.
I am sure I will have many profound things to say tomorrow.

Quite a big swing between today's potential outcomes

A Yankee friend of mine, no doubt pushing my buttons, asked me where the Red Sox collapse of 2011 ranks.

I wouldn't give him a definite answer because there currently IS none.

How can I rank something that hasn't ended yet?
There is a very big difference between what could happen.

If the Red Sox lose and don't make it to the playoffs, then it is one of the great collapses in baseball history and remembered for all time.

If the Red Sox win and make it to the playoffs, their September swoon will be totally forgotten by Friday.

That's a big swing... All Time or Friday.

Last night we ALL thought that the Orioles were going to win with a walk off homer. You did. I did.

But the Red Sox somehow won.
They won the Lavarn-Way!

Teeth were ground. Bullets were dodged. And the season comes down to Jon Lester pitching like Jon Lester of April-August and not the chump pitching this September.

I'm updating the tally.

DODGED BULLET GAMES - 48

April 8 - 9-6 win against the Yankees. (The Sox end their 6 game losing streak with a slugfest. John Lackey stinks but Phil Hughes stinks even more.)
April 10 - 4-0 win against the Yankees. (Beckett and Sabathia duel in a game that was 1-0 until the late innings.)
April 20 - 5-3 win in Oakland. (Red Sox survive a lead off homer and two bases loaded situations and facing the tying run at the plate to win their first road game.)
April 21 - 4-2 win in Anaheim. (The Red Sox stranded 15 men on base and Josh Beckett's went 8 strong with no decision. But the Sox rallied in the 11th to win.)
April 22 - 4-3 win in Anaheim. (Peter Bourjos makes a 2 run errors and the Red Sox survive a bizarre passed ball by Jarrod Saltalamacchia that let a run scored from second.)
May 1 - 3-2 win against the Mariners. (Ichiro loses a ball in the sun that turns into a 9th inning triple for Lowrie. Crawford singles him home for the win.)
May 8 - 9-5 win against the Twins. (Dice-K lets up 3 runs in the first but settles down as the Red Sox clobber Carl Pavano.)

May 9 - 2-1 win against the Twins. (A bullpen breakdown cost Beckett the decision but Cark Crawford ended the game with an 11th inning walk off hit.)
May 13 - 5-4 win in the Bronx. (Youkilis homers off of Joba and Bard and Papelbon make it more interesting than it needed to be.)
May 15 - 7-5 win in the Bronx. (Sox fall behind 4-1 but come back as Youk, Papi and Salty all homer.)
May 16 - 8-7 win against the Orioles. (Down 6-0 after 6 innings, the Sox rally and win it with a 2 run walk off double by Adrian Gonzalez)
May 18 - 1-0 win against Detroit. (With 2 outs in the 8th, Salty doubles home Crawford from first for the only run. Papelbon gets himself in and out of 9th inning trouble.)
May 19 - 4-3 win against Detroit. (Bard blows Beckett's lead but Carl Crawford wins it with a walk off hit.)
May 24 - 4-2 win in Cleveland. (Varitek throws two runners out and homers as the Red Sox win their first game against the Indians.)
May 29 - 4-3 win in Detroit. (The Red Sox blow an early 3-0 lead but David Ortiz wins the game with a pinch 9th inning homer.)
June 3 - 8-6 win against Oakland. (Buchholz lets up 4 runs in the first but the Sox come back thanks to Carl Crawford's 2 run single.)
June 4 - 9-8 win against Oakland. (Red Sox blow a 4 run 9th inning lead and trail in the 11th before Ellsbury ties it and Drew wins it in 14.)
June 7 - 6-4 win in the Bronx. (Papelbon strikes out A-Rod to end the game with a runner on base.)
June 9 - 8-3 win in the Bronx. (Down 2-0 to Sabathia in the 7th, the Sox score 7 runs as Papi exacts revenge after getting plunked. A 3+ hour rain delay pushed the game past 1:30 AM)

June 15 - 3-0 win in Tampa Bay. (Youkilis homers in the 7th for the only runs in Beckett's 1 hit masterpiece.)
June 16 - 4-2 win in Tampa Bay. (Papelbon wiggles out of a 2 on, nobody out jam in the 9th thanks to Youk's diving catch.)
June 26 - 4-2 win in Pittsburgh. (The Pirates make 4 errors and the Red Sox score 2 in the 7th to avoid a sweep by the Bucs.
June 30 - 5-2 win in Philadelphia.(An injury to Cole Hamels leads to the Red Sox bats waking up.)
July 1 - 7-5 win in Houston. (The Sox score 6 in the 7th inning to come back and win.)
July 3 - 2-1 win in Houston. (The Red Sox score a run in the top of the 9th on a walk to break a tie.)
July 5 - 3-2 win against Toronto. (Lester gets hurt but Darnel McDonald throws out the tying run at the plate to end the game.)
July 6 - 6-4 win against Toronto. (The Sox score 4 in the 4th to take the lead and Wakefield and company hang on for dear life.)
July 10 - 8-6 win against Baltimore. (The Orioles score 6 runs off of rookie Kyle Weiland in the second, but the Red Sox hit three homers in the bottom of the second to tie the game and hold for dear life.)
July 16 - 9-5 win in Tampa. (Lackey puts the Sox in a 3-0 first inning hole, but 3 Sox homers bring them back for the win.)
July 17 - 1-0 win in Tampa. (Beckett throws a masterpiece and the bullpen throws 8 amazing innings. But the Sox bats go dead, leaving 17 men on base before Pedroia drove in a run with 2 outs in the 16th inning.)
July 18 - 15-10 win in Baltimore. (The Sox blow a 6-2 lead but score 8 runs in the 8th to take the game.)
July 22 - 7-4 win against Seattle. (John Lackey beat Felix Hernandez and Mike Carp's error helped the Red Sox score 5 in the 7th to give them some breathing room.)
July 23 - 3-1 win against Seattle. (Ellsbury gets Beckett off the hook in a tight pitchers duel when he got a 2 out, 2 strike 2 run go ahead single in the 8th.)
July 26 - 13-9 win against the Royals. (The Sox trailed in the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th before the bats exploded in the 5th.
August 2 - 3-2 win against Cleveland. (Youk tied the game with a 6th inning homer and Salty dove home for the winning run in the 9th.)
August 3 - 4-3 win against Cleveland. (Ellsbury hits a walk off shot in the 9th.)
August 7 - 3-2 win against the Yankees (The Sox rally off of Rivera in the 9th and win on Josh Reddick's 10th inning single)
August 8 - 8-6 win in Minnesota. (Down 5-1, the Red Sox rally back, then score twice in the 9th to give the Sox the win.)
August 9 - 4-3 win in Minnesota. (Darnell McDonald's homer ties the game and Ortiz singles home the game winner as Bard worked out of trouble in the 7th.)
August 12 - 6-4 win in Seattle. (Reddick and Ortiz homered to bail out Lackey.)

August 16 - 3-1 win against Tampa Bay. (Pedroia makes a diving catch in the 9th to help preserve the win.)
August 18 - 4-3 win at Kansas City. (Sox hold on despite having three base runners thrown out by the outfielders.)
August 31 - 9-5 win against the Yankees. (Beckett blows a 4-1 lead but homers by Ellsbury and Varitek put the Sox on top.)
September 13 - 18-6 win against Toronto. (Wakefield blows 2 early leads but the Sox bats explode in the 6th to earn Wakes win #200.)

September 16 - 4-3 win against Tampa Bay. (Beckett, Aceves, Bard and Papelbon all wiggled out of jams to give the Red Sox a critical win.)
September 19 - 18-9 win against Baltimore. (Lackey was given 11 runs to work with but the Orioles cut it to 11-9 before a 7 run rally put the game away.)
September 25 - 7-4 win in the Bronx. (The Red Sox came back from a 3-0 hole to win in the 14th on Jacoby Ellsbury's 2 out 3 run homer and avoid a sweep.)
September 27 - 8-7 win in Baltimore. (Ryan Lavarnway hits 2 homers and somehow Papelbon hangs on to keep the Red Sox tied with the Rays.)

TEETH GRINDER GAMES - 45

April 1 - 9-5 loss in Texas. (The Sox tie Opening Day in the 8th with an Ortiz homer only to have Bard implode and the Sox let up 4 in the bottom of the 8th.)

April 5 - 3-1 loss in Cleveland. (The Sox drop their 4th straight as the bats are dead in Cleveland.)
April 7 - 1-0 loss in Cleveland. (Sox blow a great Lester performance on a squeeze bunt and Darnell McDonald overrunning the bag to end the game.)
April 12 - 3-2 loss to Tampa Bay. (A solid Lester performance is wasted as Kyle Farnsworth of all people shuts down the Sox.)
April 15 - 7-6 loss to Toronto. (Bobby Jenks implodes with a 4 run seventh inning as the Red Sox waste Pedroia and Youkilis homers and a clutch RBI double by Scuatro.
April 19 - 5-0 loss in Oakland. (Pedroia gets picked off, the Sox bats go dead and waste a solid Lackey start.)
April 26 - 4-1 loss in Baltimore. (Buchholz pitches tentatively and the Sox let Kevin Gregg of all people to close out the 9th.)
April 27 - 5-4 loss in Baltimore. (The Sox tie the game with a 3 run 8th only to have Bard lose it in the bottom of the 8th.)
April 29 - 5-4 loss to Mariners. (Bobby Jenks blows a 7th inning lead, wasting 2 Mike Cameron homers.)
April 30 - 2-0 loss to Mariners. (The Sox strand 11 runners and let Milton Bradley double home the go ahead run.)
May 4 - 5-3 loss to Angels. (7 hours with rain delays and stranded runners. Marco Scutaro was thrown out at the plate in the 12th)
May 10 - 7-6 loss in Toronto. (8th and 9th inning heroics, including a homer by Adrian Gonzalez, are undone by a walk off sacrifice fly by David Cooper.)
May 21 - 9-3 loss to Cubs. (Up 3-1 in the 8th inning, the bullpen and defense implode. The Cubs score 8 runs while both teams wear their 1918 uniforms.)
May 23- 3-2 loss in Cleveland. (The Sox blow a 2-1 8th inning lead when the Indians rally with 2 outs. Crawford ends the game on a double play.)
May 29 - 3-0 loss in Detroit. (Verlander keeps the Sox off base and prevents the sweep.)
June 1 - 7-4 loss to White Sox. (Konerko drives in three, spoiling a game tying Ortiz homer.)

June 14 - 4-0 loss in Tampa Bay. (Wakefield's solid outing is spoiled. Longoria scores on a passed ball.)
June 18 - 4-2 loss to Milwaukee. (The Brewers hit three homers early off of Lester and hang on.)
June 21 - 5-4 loss to San Diego. (Ortiz hits a double play in the 9th to stifle a potential winning rally.)

June 24 - 3-1 loss to Pittsburgh. (The Red Sox strand 7 runners in scoring position.)
June 25 - 6-4 loss to Pittsburgh. (The Red Sox fall out of first as Pedroia's error leads to a Pirates run.)
June 29 - 2-1 loss in Philadelphia. (Vance Worley duels John Lackey and slumping Raul Ibanez drives in both runs.)
July 4 - 9-7 loss to Toronto. (John Lackey's miserable start puts the Sox in too big a hole to climb out of.)
July 19 - 6-2 loss in Baltimore. (Scutaro gets thrown out stealing and the Orioles tack on 3 big runs late.)

July 25 - 3-1 loss to the Royals. (Scutaro botches a potential game winning squeeze play in the 12th as the Red Sox lose in 14.)

July 28 - 4-3 loss to the Royals. (Crawford's bid for a walk off homer falls just short.)
July 29 - 3-1 loss to the White Sox. (Sox blow a late 1-0 lead and spoil a solid Wakefield start.)

August 1 - 9-6 loss to Cleveland. (Asdrubal Cabrera's second home run was an 8th inning tie breaking shot off of Daniel Bard.)

August 4 - 7-3 loss to Cleveland. (Carlos Santana's homer broke a 3-3 tie.)
August 5 - 3-2 loss to the Yankees. (The Sox leave the bases loaded in the 5th and the Yankees score 3 in the 6th to take the lead.)
August 10 - 5-2 in Minnesota. (The Twins score 3 in the 8th, spoiling Ortiz's game tying homer.)
August 13 - 5-4 loss in Seattle. (Mariners score 5 in the first and the Red Sox come back falls short.)
August 14 - 5-3 loss in Seattle. (The Red Sox comeback falls short as Wakefield loses a complete game).

August 16 - 6-2 loss against Tampa Bay. (The Red Sox pull a triple play but a late rally by the Rays puts the game out of reach.)

August 21 - 9-4 loss at Kansas City. (The Royals' 8 run 6th spoils a 4-1 Sox lead and Wakefield's bid to win 200 games.)
August 30 - 5-2 loss to the Yankees. (Sabathia finally beats the Sox and Cervelli's homer sparks bean balls.)
September 1 - 4-2 loss to the Yankees. (Russell Martin's 2 run double in the 7th put the Yankees on top for good. Rivera struck out Gonzalez with the bases loaded to end the game.)

September 5 - 1-0 loss in Toronto. (Beckett sprains his ankle and Brett Lawrie homered in the 11th to win.)
September 7 - 11-10 loss in Toronto. (Bard melts down in the 8th, preventing Tim Wakefield's 200th win. Aviles is thrown out trying to steal to end the game.)
September 10 - 6-5 loss in Tampa Bay. (Sox get 2 homers in the 9th to tie the game only to lose it in the 11th.)
September 14 - 5-4 loss to Toronto. (Adam Loewen singled home 2 runs in the Blue Jays 3 run 8th inning, making Bard a loser AGAIN!)
September 17 - 4-3 loss to Tampa Bay. (Scutaro grounds out to end the game with the tying run on second.)
September 19 - 6-5 loss to Baltimore. (Kyle Weiland gets bombed, Darnell McDonald drops a ball, a fair ball is called foul... just a bad day all around.)
September 20 - 7-5 loss to Baltimore. ( hit a 3 run double with 2 outs in the 8th to give Baltimore the win.)
September 21 - 6-4 loss to Baltimore. (Crawford goes 3-4 but Beckett can't hold onto a lead as the Orioles rally in the 8th.)
September 26 - 6-3 loss to Baltimore. (An inside the park homer off of Ellsbury's glove put the game away and the Rays caught Boston.)

Back up to +3.
Something to remember when this season ends... they've won more games they should have lost than lost games they should have won.

Interesting.

The tally will be updated no matter what the outcome tonight.

Imagine if this was happening on Labor Day weekend

The Braves and Red Sox are fighting for their playoff lives.
The Rays and Cardinals are charging and could pull off the amazing upsets.
The Diamondbacks and Brewers are homering their way to potential home field advantage.
Matt Kemp is putting on a show to earn the MVP.

It's an AMAZING end to the regular season.
And it's happening on a Wednesday at the end of September.

Most casual sports fans have moved on to football.
Most parks will be half empty.

Can you imagine if this were happening on Labor Day?
Before football has saturated the sports market... before people's attention has wandered...

Can you imagine if people were actually following baseball how big this finale would be?

But I said all of that already.

No California Teams this year

For the second time since the Wild Card was introduced in 1995, there will be no California teams in the post season.

In 1999 and this year, the West was represented by Arizona and Texas.
And the Wild Cards in 1999 were the Mets and Red Sox.
We're not sure who it is for this year.

Let's run them down.

In 1995, the Dodgers won the NL West crown. (The Angels lost a one game playoff to Seattle.)
In 1996, both the Padres and Dodgers were in.
In 1997, the Giants won the NL West.
In 1998, the Padres won the National League pennant.
1999 saw no California teams.
2000 had the A's and the Giants winning their Division.
In 2001, the A's won the Wild Card.
2002 was the greatest year for California. The A's won the AL West but the World Series was between the Giants and Angels.
2003 had the A's and Giants winning their Division again.
The 2004 Angels won the Division.
In 2005, the Angels won the Division and advanced to the ALCS. Meanwhile the Padres won the NL West.
2006 saw the Padres and Dodgers both in the National League playoffs and the Oakland A's making it to the ALCS.
The 2007 Angels won the Division.
The 2008 and 2009 Angels and Dodgers each won their Division. Both made the LCS in 2009, the closest we have seen to a Freeway Series.
And the 2010 Giants of course won the World Series.

But with the elimination of the Angels tonight, any California dream for the World Series was put to rest.

Good luck next year, Giants, A's, Dodgers, Angels or Padres.

I want some West Coast Bias next year.

Lisa Swan returns to the Sully Baseball Show to torment me

Lisa Swan, co creator of Subway Squawkers, returned to the Sully Baseball Show to essentially rub the Red Sox failures in my face. I take it. Because that's how I am.

Click below to hear the show,

Listen to internet radio with Seamheads on Blog Talk Radio