Red Sox fans... have you detected a pattern with this team yet?

Earlier this season, I wrote an article for Bleacher Report where I urged the Red Sox to deal Josh Beckett. He was pitching well at the time and I felt that he could get a decent minor leaguer in return. The Red Sox were not contenders, I argued, and they should try to flip some of their veterans for pieces that could help from 2013 on.

People wrote to me saying I was crazy for waving the white flag on the season.

I asked them if they thought the Red Sox were contenders.
They said that they did and consistently pointed to how close they were in the standings and how the team would improve when they get healthy.

Meanwhile the Red Sox have been very consistent all year. And it is the kind of consistency that keeps teams out of the playoffs.

All year they have had two settings: Lose a bunch in a row and look incompetent. Win a bunch of series in a row and look like a pennant contender turning it around.

They start the season 4-10 with the embarrassing Yankee series, then rattle of six straight wins and look like a contender.

Then they went on a 2-9 stretch and looked awful. Then they won five in a row and looked great again. They won five of six in early June to climb over .500. Then lost seven of eight to fall below .500. They went on a five game winning streak in mid June. Now they just got swept by the A's.

It is the morning of July 5th and they are 2 games over .500.

This is not a contender.
This is a streaky team.

This is an 83-85 win team.

Just enjoy the winning streaks when they happen and remove any post season hopes for this team.

Detect these patterns. Don't go too crazy when they win and don't get too upset when they lose.

That is the nature of this team.
Lower your expectations and this season will be pretty fun.

If the Red Sox only were mediocre at the beginning and end

So the Red Sox blew the incredible lead to play golf this October. They were shockingly dreadful in September.

But remember how they lost their first 6 games and 10 of their first 12?
The Red Sox finished the season 90-72.

And they were 11-15 in April and a eye popping 7-20 in September.

In other words they were 18-35 in April and September and 72-37 the rest of the season.

Imagine if they weren't awful but merely mediocre at the bookends of the season.
Instead of being 17 games under .500 in those 2 months, what if they were just 1 game under .500?

That would be a 26-27 record in the 53 games of April and September. Not unreasonable for a consensus World Series pick.

And if they did that and played the rest of the season the same way, they would have had a 98-64 record... a game ahead of the Yankees.

If only they rose to the level of "eh."

Video of me talking to Red Sox fans during tonight's game

Potential Giant Regrets

There has been a whole lot of strangeness going on by China Basin.
The defense of the Giants' World Championship has hit some unexpected snags.

In late July, the Giants took 2 of 3 IN Philadelphia and took a 4 game lead over Arizona in the West. Then they got Carlos Beltran to spark the offense. Winning the west was merely a formality.

Instead in 17 games, they went from 4 games up to 3 1/2 back of Arizona.

A 7 1/2 game swing in less than 3 weeks!

So after the Braves series, the Giants saw the lowly Astros and the not exactly world beater Padres were on deck. And during those games the Diamondbacks went on a 6 game losing streak.

The Giants won just one game during the D'Backs slide... and they were playing two of the worst teams in the league.

If the Giants don't win the Division, or are scrambling in the last week and throwing Lincecum on short rest, remember August. Remember these series against the Astros and the Padres.

These games count just as much as the games at the end of September.
Let's hope the Giants didn't lose the Division here the way the Padres did last year.

Thank you "Law of Averages"

The Mariners were eventually going to win a game.
They weren't going to finish the season 43-119.

I was just hoping the law of averages would kick in while they were playing the Yankees.
Now having Felix Hernandez pitch certainly HELPS push the law of averages along.

But man, it looked great to see the Yankees making bad plays and misplaying flyballs.

OK Sox... just beat the Royals and chop down that magic number!

Not much is different in Marlins land

Meet the new boss.
Same as the old boss.

Actually he IS the old boss.
The REALLY old boss.

Chris Jaffe wrote a great piece on how old Jack McKeon is for The Hardball Times.
Well his first decision didn't bode well for the return of Trader Jack.

He benched Hanley Ramirez.
Yeah yeah yeah. He was showing his star that nobody was safe.

Yeah yeah yeah. Old School blah blah blah.

The team lost again.
They lost their 11th straight game.
They lost 2-1.

Hanley Ramirez could have been helpful.

The Fish had better win a game pretty soon. They are 9 games in the loss column out of a Wild Card spot.

Or else Trader Jack might be trading away some of his players.

Marlins... DO SOMETHING

I actually LIKE the Marlins.
I PICKED the Marlins.

I would like to see them do well this year.
But they are 12 games back of Philadelphia in the loss column right now.

They are falling into Astros/Dodgers/Padres/Cubs territory in the Wild Card race. In other words they are tumbling into "Lost Season-Ville" if they don't do something.

It's getting gruesome.

Do something.

The A's haven't won since May 29

I guess I should be specific.
That's May 29, 2011.

8 straight losses.

No need to panic.
It's only April... I mean May... I mean June.

Questions for panicking Red Sox fans

1. With 156 games left, do you think the Red Sox have enough time to close the 4 game gap with the Yankees?

2. Do you think Kevin Youkilis will finish the season batting .105?

3. Will the Red Sox home record improve from 0-0?

4. Do you think that Blue Jays infielder Yunel Escobar is going to win the batting title? He currently leads the AL with a .474 average.

5. While the Red Sox are slumping, the Orioles are in first place in the East, the Indians and Royals are tied for first in the Central (with the Royals playing the most exciting baseball in the majors) and the Pirates are a 1 1/2 games out of first in the NL Central. Should those teams be printing playoff tickets?


CALM DOWN!!!!!!!

I am not feeling well... but I am doing better than the Red Sox

I am having an allergy attack.
My head is stuffed up.
I feel like the guy whose head was in a vice in Casino.

I can barely breathe.

And yet I still feel healthier than the Red Sox.

Neither Dice-K nor Beckett pitched BADLY. This team is just dead from the neck up.

Something has got to give soon. I know it is early, but you can't afford to give away whole WEEKS!

OK, off to bed.

Achoo.

Did anything GOOD happen tonght?

OK, the Red Sox are 0-4. You really can't do worse than that over 4 games. And oddly, Carl Crawford has hit in 5 different spots in the lineup. I could be wrong about that, but I don't think I am.

So, not to pull a "Besides that, Mrs. Lincoln how did you like the play?" but can we take anything positive from this?

Well, Beckett pitched OK. Not great, but you can totally pin this loss on him.

The bullpen looked good.

Saltalamacchia drove in a 2 out run.

Hey! Those are all cool.

And while a lot of people are bringing up the fact that no team has ever started the season 0-4 and gone on to win the World Series, I will point out that no team ever was down 0-3 in a best of 7 baseball series and wound up winning it.

There are 158 games to go and it takes one winning streak to make that all work out. Plus the Rays are 0-4 and the Yankees blew a late lead last night, so it is not like they are in an insurmountable situation. It isn't even MID April.

Maybe the Red Sox should play ONE home game before we panic.

And remember, over their first 5 games, the 1998 Yankees were 1-4. They finished OK.

So relax.

But I will update the tally.

DODGED BULLET GAMES - 0

TEETH GRINDER GAMES - 2

April 1 - 9-5 loss in Texas. (The Sox tie Opening Day in the 8th with an Ortiz homer only to have Bard implode and the Sox let up 4 in the bottom of the 8th.)

April 5 - 3-1 loss in Cleveland. (The Sox drop their 4th straight as the bats are dead in Cleveland.)

OK, -2 so far.

Let's rattle off 4 in a row and put this in the rear view mirror.

How can the Red Sox expect to score against a legend like Josh Tomlin?

Seriously, it's not fair. How can the Sox line up, a rag tag bunch of misfits, possibly get MORE than a run when Cy Young favorite Josh Tomlin is on the hill?

No wonder they sent J. D. Drew to the plate when he was thrown out. Runs are at a PREMIUM when Tomlin is on the hill.

The only question is will he win 30 games this year.

No shame in being completely shut down by him.
It's like facing Maddux in his prime. It is to be expected.

Josh Beckett... the earning of $15.75 million begins NOW

Seriously, it is time for Josh to be Josh again.

In my Star Trek movies to Josh Beckett chart, we should be due for Star Trek VI, which was good. (No really, it was.)

So let's get going... it's off to Cleveland, the site of Beckett's greatest triumph as a member of the Red Sox.

Remember? In 2007, he became the American Bad Ass! The Sox were down 3-1 and Cleveland was on the verge of winning the pennant and CC Sabathia was on the mound.

Beckett calmly and carefully reduced the Indians to rubble, forcing the series back to Boston.

He didn't care that the Indians ace was on the hill.
He didn't care that Kenny Lofton tried to pick a fight with him.
He didn't care that they brought out his ex girlfriend to sing the national anthem.

He just won.

The stakes are not as high right now, but a streak stopping loss will go a long way to putting some confidence in Beckett.

Live long and prosper, Beckett and on to the Undiscovered Country!

Whose opening was worse? Charlie Sheen or the Red Sox?

There wasn't a lot of "Winning" going on with either one. In fact both flopped pretty dramatically.

I would argue that the Red Sox had a worse opening. Because with Charlie, what exactly could you possibly have expected the show to be?

He wasn't going to sing. Or dance. And clearly no writers were on tour to feed him lines. (Although it is safe to say Sheen had a LOT of lines before the show.)

So if you went to the show, you were expecting to see Charlie Sheen act like a deranged lunatic. And it sounds like he delivered.

Meanwhile the Red Sox were capable of something. They could have pitched. They could have hit. They could have kept a FEW balls in the yard.

Let me put it this way, nobody was picking Sheen's show to win a Tony Award, but a lot of people thought this Sox team was ready for a parade in November.

So I guess the one with Tiger blood indeed won again.
(How could his Tigers uniform not say "Tiger Blood" on it? That could have made the whole show work!)

My friend, the brilliant Christian Finnegan, Tweeted it best regarding the Sheen refunds.

"DECREE: Anyone wanting a Charlie Sheen refund must first make a public speech explaining his rationale for purchasing the ticket."

The REAL winners?
The writers of Two and a Half Men. They can say "It's not so easy, is it Mr. Warlock?"

Let's hope the Red Sox can start being more Hot Shots, Wall Street, Major League Charlie Sheen rather than "being an expensive and humiliating public disaster" Charlie Sheen.

Witnessing the collapse from a block away

I've had a wonderful weekend in San Diego with my family as we've been staying just across the street from Petco Park. It's a lovely part of a truly beautiful city and I've been witnessing first hand a really tremendous collapse.

The first place Padres have dropped their last 10 (TEN!!!) and I've witnessed that daze of the fans walking around the Gaslamp Quarter as they can't believe their team is folding like a tent.

And as much as I have enjoyed San Diego and their people and as much as I appreciate the story of the no budget Padres winning the division, my second team is the Giants and if the Red Sox can't win, I hope my dad's Giants can.

Which makes my dinner last night all the more surreal.
My wife, kids and I went to the Tin Fish Bar for some seafood Sunday night. And the TV there was showing the Giants/Dodgers game of which I had great interest.

But I couldn't cheer loudly, or at all really.
the Tin Fish is literally a block from PetCo Park and is filled with Padres decorations. And many of the people nursing beers were grumbling about the Friars... many dressed in Padres gear.

It would not have been in good form to be cheering for the team that is hoping to crush the squad whose team plays in the stadium I could see while scarfing down fish.

It isn't quite being in the Cask'N Flagon cheering on the Yankees down the stretch in 1978... but the principle is the same.

The Giants caught them in the win column and is back now by 2 in the loss.
The four game series starting on Thursday at Petco might indeed be epic.

Giants fans travelling south, there are evidently good tickets available. Go stop by the Tin Fish Bar... just don't cheer too loudly.

THE PLANETS ARE ALLIGNING FOR THE GIANTS

The Padres have lost a comical 10 games in a row.
The Phillies got bombed early and the Brewers let their early lead stick.
Even the Braves lost.

Things are lining up in a way where Giants fans wouldn’t dare dream.
No need for a dream now.

Focus Giants…
If Jonathan Sanchez and the Giants can beat Hiroku Kuroda and the Dodgers… the Giants will be 2 games back in the loss column for both the West AND the Wild Card going into Labor Day.

You want meaningful games in September? The Giants are 3 games back in the loss column of having home field advantage in the Division Series!

Stay focus Giants… an alignment doesn’t happen like this every year!

The Padres might not win another game this year

I am watching the Padres play the Rockies right now and I have seen no evidence that this team has another win in their system in the next 29 games.

Seriously, if I told you at the beginning of the season that the Padres were going to go 76-86, you'd probably say "That's better than I thought."

Well guess what? If they keep playing like this, that might be their final record.

Have you noticed...

Have you noticed that the Cardinals haven't won since Tony LaRussa and Albert Pujols appeared at Glenn Beck's vague rally?

They've lost two to the Nationals and all three to the Astros... not exactly world beaters.

Just making an observation.
I am sure people in Cincinnati are glad they showed up.

Weather this storm, Giants

OK... today sucked for the Giants. I mean it sucked in every way a game can suck. 10-0? That's a day of total suckitude that the only positive thing I can pull from the game is I think they looked good with their caps with the orange bills.

It's been a brutal few weeks and with their starting rotation, their supposed strength, looking worse and worse each day and the team in freefall... there's reason to think the Giants whole season is done.

And hey, you might be right.

After all, they are 7 games back in the loss column for the Division and 3 back in the loss column for the Wild Card.

The schedule isn't giving them many breaks as they play the first place and on a roll Reds for the next three games.

But just hang on. The schedule is going to lighten up soon...
The Lowly D'Backs and reeling Rockies and Dodgers are next.

They have winnable games every game after the Reds series for the rest of the month. And they are only 3 back in the loss...

If they can be only 3 back in the loss by Labor Day, they'll play only 7 games against contenders for the rest of the year (the 7 remaining games with San Diego.)

Don't get swept, try and keep pace and know it is better to have your lousy streak in August than in September (or October for that matter!)

And oh yeah, try not to make 10-0 losses a habit.

The Giants are making all the right moves... SO WIN ALREADY!

I've been calling for the Giants to make some key moves since May.

And because the San Francisco front office evidently listens to me, they've been taking my suggestions.

Burrell is a Giant and homering.

Posey has been recalled as has Bumgarner.

And now the Giants took a risk by dealing away a terrific pitch caller in Bengie Molina. But they are putting Posey behind the plate where he should be for the next 10 years and they brought in Chris Ray who should give the bullpen a little depth.

The sum total of all these moves?

A 6 game losing streak.

And not just any losing streak... the last 4 have been to the Dodgers and the Rockies, two of the teams that they are bunched up with in the NL West race.

What the hell? They are improved and yet have dropped nearly a week into the loss column.

Let's pick it up, Giants. You've got 3 more in Coors Field, and I am heading up to the Bay Area this weekend and will spend some time with my dad, the biggest Giants fan I know.

He's happier when the Giants are winning and I want a happy dad.

You've got the pieces... WIN!