A mystery that will perplex scientists and historians for generations to come

Why the hell did Roy Oswalt throw Juan Uribe an off speed pitch?
Seriously... the guy has a busted wrist and looked overpowered on the first few pitches. He wasn't going to get around on one of those fastballs.

And oh yeah, the winning run was on third with less than 2 outs.
I would call that a situation where you needed a strikeout.

Off speed pitch... deep fly to left... and somehow the Giants with the makeshift lineup consisting of guys with torn biceps, hurt wrists and the 16th caller on KNBR are one win away from the World Series.

Seriously?
An off speed pitch?

Phillies fans... you are welcome

Back on July 22nd, I wrote about how the Phillies were playing so poorly that I accused them of being pod people, replacing the actual Phillies with soul less replicants.

They were a mere 2 games over .500 and were in danger of hitting break even if they lost to St. Louis and Colorado.

And they were 7 games back of the Braves. They were dead in the water when I called them out.

What's their record since that 5-1 loss to St. Louis?

13-2.

Granted one of those wins was aided by a horrible call in Florida the other night

But in just a little more than 2 weeks, the Phillies have nearly made up a week of games. And it can't all be attributed to the Roy Oswalt trade. They started this tear before his arrival.

I think the Phillies read my post and finally woke up and played as they are capable of doing.

And now I think they will take the division under their arm and run away with it.

I'll take the credit.

I can't think of any other reason for the turn around.

You are welcome.

I should get a playoff share.

THIS ISN’T GOING TO HELP MATTERS FOR THE PHILLIES

I wrote earlier that Phillies fans should refrain from nagging their team regarding Cliff Lee.

They know they screwed up… they’ve brought you flowers and an expensive gift (Roy Oswalt) to make up for it.

Well any hope I had for the “Why didn’t we just keep Lee?” rumblings to stop caught a giant snag.

Yup, Roy Oswalt got his butt kicked tonight by the “Currently Waving a White Flag” Washington Nationals.

OK, 6 innings, 4 earned runs isn’t a whippin’s but it isn’t what the Phillies were hoping for, especially facing a line up that didn’t exactly resemble the Big Red Machine.

With the offense reduced to a Jayson Werth homer (I thought they were going to trade him) they needed a pitcher to shut down the opposition.

Like how about J. A. Happ? He went 6 shutout innings for the Astros against Milwaukee.

You remember Happ? He’s the Phillies pitcher who was sent packing in the Oswalt deal… whom the Phillies could have kept in they also kept Cliff Lee.

Oh Phillies fans won’t be forgetting this any time soon.

Phillies fans... don't nag your team about Cliff Lee

Have you ever screwed up badly and tried to make up for it?
It might be with your spouse, or significant other or family…

I’m not talking about something huge like adultery or tax evasion.
I’m talking about a judgment call.

A bad investment, inviting the wrong person over, turning down a job that turned into a big windfall, buying the wrong kind of car… something that they could throw a few “I told you so”s at you.

At the exact moment that you knew you screwed up, don’t you tend to overcompensate? Don’t you tend to try to patch things up as quickly as possible?

And while you are fixing the problem if you get a “I don’t know why you just didn’t do what I told you to do before” flung at you, doesn’t it REALLY suck?

When you hear “Why didn’t you do what I told you to do?” don’t you just want to scream “I KNOW! I’M SORRY! I’M FIXING IT! GET OFF MY BACK!”

That’s what the Phillies are doing right now.

They traded for Roy Halladay in the off season. But instead of just trading prospects for Halladay, they decided to replenish their farm system in the process and deal Cliff Lee to get prospects BACK.

And everyone, including yours truly, said “Why didn’t you keep Lee and have the best 1-2 punch in baseball?”

With a shaky bullpen, they could have 2 aces who could throw 9 consistently and give the relievers a rest.

Yet the Phillies tried it out… and Halladay has been solid but Cliff Lee has dominated in both a Mariners and a Rangers uniform. And while the Phillies struggled it was clear they needed a #2 starter.

And oh yeah, the prospects they got for Lee have been stiffs so far.

And even though the Phillies seem to have righted their ship, they went out and traded for Roy Oswalt.

And it cost them prospects (including J. A. Happ) which is what they wanted to save when dealing Cliff Lee.

And Oswalt’s contract is going on for two more years while Cliff Lee’s expires after this year and the Phillies could have let him go and picked up 2 first round picks… which could have helped replenish the farm system.

It’s a solid move for the Phillies, yet virtually everyone is bringing up the Cliff Lee move when talking about the Oswalt trade.

They now have a great 1-2 punch, yet everyone is claiming they told the Phillies so.

The Phillies know!
They are sorry!
They are fixing it!
Get off of their backs!

The Brett Wallace Merry Go Round Continues

Doesn't anyone want Brett Wallace?
Or does EVERYONE want Brett Wallace?

It's hard to figure out.

Brett Wallace could very well become a superstar hitter in the big leagues one of these days... Where he will play is anyone's guess.

Since being picked by the Cardinals in the first round in 2008, he was touted as one of the best power prospects in the bigs.

Since July 24, 2009, he has been part of 4 different organizations... all at the AAA level.

He has yet to play a single game in the bigs (still trailing Jon Ratliff in that category) and has been declared the future for 4 different teams.

He's the future power slugger for the Cardinals... no wait he's going to be the new basher in Oakland... did I say Oakland I meant Toronto... or maybe Houston!

After the Astros flipped one of their Phillies prospects in the Oswalt trade, Wallace can now claim he has been involved directly or indirectly with trades for Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Matt Holliday and Roy Oswalt.

Pretty elite company.

But does he have the "Crazy Single Hot Girl" aura around him?

You know when you meet a really hot girl who is single and think "Man, how lucky am I? I can't believe she is available!" Then you start dating and you realize "Wow, now I know why she's single. I got to get out of this!"

Kind of like the careers of Kyle Farnsworth, Terrell Owens and Stephon Marbury.

Do the Cardinals, A's and Blue Jays all know something that the Astros are going to find out?
Or is he really that good a prospect?

If he is traded again, I am declaring because he is too fat.

Don't believe me?
Check out my post about Wallace I made last year.

Roy... it might be time not to insist on that option being picked up

Seriously Roy... after today, you may not want to be playing double hard ball.

As for the Astros, what did I write last Monday?

I said the Astros may have blown their chance to deal Roy Oswalt and get a few darn good pieces to a rebuilding process on the squad.

I've been hounding them to deal Oswalt since before the 2009 season... and all THIS year too.

Then on Monday he leaves a game when a line drive went off his ankle. I said they blew it.
And I got private e mails from Astros fans saying "It's not going to affect his next start."

He looked lights out today... as in the lights are out on a big trade.
6 runs and 9 hits over 5 innings today?

He's combined for 9 innings over his last 2 starts and a not so pretty 7 runs over those 9.

Yeah, he's had a good year this year, but if you were going to mortgage your future AND commit for 2 expensive seasons, would you do it when the prize pitcher was in a slump?

You had your chance Houston...
You had your chance.

Did the Astros blow it?

I've been saying the Astros should deal Roy Oswalt since before the 2009 season... and I've been adamant about it.

And I warned them that if they wait too long they could end up like the Orioles with Brian Roberts... where he was the prime trade chip but they never pulled the trigger. And now he is hurt and has no value.

Well look what happened today. He has a ball hit his ankle and shortens his day.

Now it isn't going to bring back memories of Dave Dravecky's arm snapping, but if he comes back in his next start and stinks, then any trade suitor might think he is damaged goods. And with only 2 weeks until the trade deadline, even one bad start could torpedo a trade.

In other words, the Astros, who should have been wheeling and dealing in the spring, could be sitting on a #1 starter trade chip at the deal deadline and won't be able to move him.

Yeah yeah yeah, his contract is big. Something could have been worked out. The Padres got a bunch of solid young players, including Clayton Richard, for Jake Peavy.

Almost every team could use a pitcher like Oswalt... and they may have let this chance to get a building block or two slip away.

To paraphrase Robert DeNiro in CopLand, you had a chance to deal Roy Oswalt AND YOU BLEW IT!

Make a deal, Astros...

Seriously... I've been telling you for years to swing a deal for Roy Oswalt... how can his stock get any higher?

He just threw a freaking one hit complete game shutout.

Granted it was against the Pirates, but still. It counts.

Swing a deal.

If the offer for Cliff Lee from Minnesota is real, then he is Twin bound.

So Oswalt will be the best available pitcher on the trade market.

Maybe with the White Sox! They just lost Jake Peavy and they have a penchant for dealing away prospects.

Make that deal before Oswalt walks off the mound with a season ending injury a la Peavy.

But figure it out.

And maybe see if you can throw in Lance Berkman as well.

I mean when is his value going to get higher then when he smacks 2 homers out of the yard.

Pull that trigger Astros.

You get nothing by doing nothing.

Oswalt, like Lee, is holding up his end of the bargain

Well if the Astros are looking to shop Roy Oswalt, they can't ask for much better a "Trade for Me!" performance than tonight.

7 strong innings, 2 runs, 1 walk, lowering his ERA to 3.08 and showing his value.

And it being an Astros game, of course it was a loss as Tim Lincecum is reestablishing his Cy Young credentials.

Both Oswalt and Cliff Lee, as I wrote earlier, are pitching like aces just as they are being shopped around.

And this could be the most exciting trade deadline we've seen in a LONG time where two pitchers could change the pennant races in the right deal and be the difference between glory and golf in October.

But as I wrote earlier about Brian Roberts, you don't want to hold off a trade for TOO long.

And the value might not ever be this high again.

Hey get your red hot aces here!

A week ago, I talked about the three aces who should be dealt and give their old teams a needed shot of youth and their new teams hope on October.

Well if these three are indeed going to be dealt, their teams would be smart to pull the trigger NOW!

Based on their last performances, they are bringing their A game.

Johan Santana pitched last night against Milwaukee and gave the Mets 8 shutout innings, 3 hits and got 2 hits himself.

Of course the Mets might be just diluted enough to think they have a shot this season. You don't... replenish the farm.

Roy Oswalt pitched on Wednesday and he also went 8 shutout innings, getting (for him) a rare win.

Last night Lee overcame a sloppy first inning to go 8 innings, 2 earned runs and 10 Ks.

Seriously Mets, Astros and Mariners... pull the trigger now.
You'd hate to see someone get an injury and suddenly you've got no bait.

The season is 1/3 done... time to look towards 2011.

Three Aces Wild

Making preseason predictions is often an act in futility.
If you don't believe me, look at my predictions for 2007...
And if you are still not convinced, look at my predictions for 2008...
And if that wasn't enough, why not take a gander at my predictions last year...

But one thing that makes picks so worthless is of course the team that plays in April will inevitably be different that the team that plays in October. While midseason trades are usually all hype and not a lot of true impact, dealing for a true ace in midseason could be the difference between playing for a pennant or playing golf in October.

You just have to look at the Indians trading away their two Cy Young winners, Sabathia and Lee, to see how October can be affected by dealing an ace.

And for teams falling out of contention, trading away an ace could bring about much needed building blocks for the future.

Joe Carter, John Smoltz, Brady Anderson, Randy Johnson and Carlos Guillen, among others, were picked up by teams in mid season trades for pitching.

This year there are three legit aces... three difference making pitchers who are pitching for teams that are going nowhere.

One SHOULD be traded. One is ASKING to be traded. And one will INEVITABLY.

Let's look at the one who SHOULD be traded first:

JOHAN SANTANA

Santana was supposed to be for the Mets what Curt Schilling was to the Red Sox in 2004. With the Mets falling a Carlos Beltran called third strike short of the World Series in 2006 and the epic collapse of 2007... Omar Minaya needed to make a bold move.

And he did so bringing in the American League's best pitcher to Queens. And you can't blame Santana for the collapse of 2008! He won his last 7 decisions in '08 including a complete game shutout on the second to last game of the season to keep hope alive in Flushing.

But the Mets aren't an ace away from winning anymore. Their nice April not withstanding, they are a sinking team. Don't believe me? On April 30th, the Mets were in first place, 5 games over .500. They are 6-14 since and their pitching staff and lineup are wearing down... and their farm system is notoriously bare.

Sure, Santana gives them a great arm every 5 days, but this team needs a shot in the arm and Santana's trade value may never be this high. A little honesty in the Mets front office would have them admit they are not catching the Phillies (they are already a full week behind Philadelphia) and don't have the horses to compete.

The team trading for Santana would have him for three more seasons... so the Mets could get as many as three pieces to a long term puzzle. Will they do it? Probably not. It's the smart thing to do, which isn't the Mets way of doing things.


Now for the one who is ASKING to be traded.
ROY OSWALT

I've been screaming for the Astros to trade Oswalt since the beginning of 2009. And with today's news that Oswalt is waiving his no trade clause, it looks like it is going to happen.

This is his 10th season for the Astros and he was the MVP of the 2005 NLCS, the Astros lone trip to the World Series, so no doubt he has a lot of affection for Houston and the team.

But this team sucks. He knows it. We all know it. And while he is in the top 10 in the NL for ERA and WHIP, he is also second in the league in losses!

He has a 2-6 record. Only Charlie Morton (he with the 9.68 ERA) has more losses. Oswalt has pitched 6 innings in all 9 of his starts this year and has given the Astros 7 innings 6 times. He's averaged 7 innings and about 2 1/2 runs a start for his last 5 starts... and has an 0-4 record to show for it.

Like the Mets, the Astros cupboard is bare on the farm and Oswalt should fetch at least 2 players ready to insert on the big league team.

Now the ace who will be INEVITABLY traded.
CLIFF LEE

Have the Mariners woken up (along with Ken Griffey Jr) from their first quarter nap?

10 days ago I said I wasn't sure what the Mariners should do with their season. Cliff Lee won that day... then the Mariners lost 7 of their last 8 before winning 2 in a row.

They have Lee and Hernandez back, Griffey has some clutch hits and Milton Bradley is back from therapy... and they are still the third worst team in the American League.

There is a better chance that the Cubs will call to reacquire Bradley than Cliff Lee being a Mariner in 2011... and short of a massive winning streak, this Mariner team isn't contending.

90 wins will probably win the West. The Mariners are on pace for 59. Forget .500, the Mariners are trying to reach .400 at this point.

They dealt away some good prospects to Philadelphia, Toronto, Oakland and I think Manchester United by the time the deal was done. It was a nice idea... but they need to think about 2011 now.



So think about the landscape of contenders now. You know two of these pitchers will be wearing new uniforms by the time October rolls around and possibly all three. And whatever contender picks them up will suddenly have a new potent weapon. A playoff contender could get over the hump, like the Brewers a few years ago when they picked up Sabathia.

A pennant contender could overcome their weaknesses with a new ace, like the Phillies last year with Cliff Lee.

Contenders like the Rangers, the Rays, the Cardinals, the Twins and the Tigers could use an arm to put them over the top.

Heavy weights like the Yankees, Angels, Red Sox and Dodgers (divorce not withstanding) all have pitching issues. Acquiring an ace would give the team a nice jolt of adrenaline.

It will change the entire complexion of the pennant race if and when these deals are made... and make me feel not as bad for making lousy predictions in April!

Brian Roberts injury is a warning to the Astros

Take note, Houston.

The Orioles have stunk for a while, and yet they have a solid all around All Star second baseman in the form of Brian Roberts. He was in trade rumors almost every day since he made the All Star team in 2005.

And the Orioles played footsie with lots of teams, including the Cubs whom he was rumored to be dealt to on an hourly basis.

And they kept him… they kept him when teams needed an extra bat down the stretch… they kept him after he weathered the steroid accusations (and he kind of admitted he did them)… and they kept him to a contract extension.

Were they trying to keep him around and give Baltimore fans another “Oriole for life” in the infield a la Robinson or Ripken?

Were they trying to milk the other teams for as many prospects as possible?
Supposedly the White Sox were offering Gavin Floyd straight up for him but Baltimore wanted more.

Either way, Roberts is having back and abdominal issues and is on the 60 Day DL. You know what that means? It means his season is probably shot.

And the Orioles have an injured second baseman with a steroid history in his mid 30s making $10 million for the next three seasons.

Good luck trading him NOW!

A team that seems destined to hit 90 losses for their 5th straight season (and for the 8th time in the past 10 seasons) will have an albatross on their payroll.

What does this have to do with the Astros?

Well, I’ve been borderline begging them to deal Roy Oswalt before it is too late.
They have one of the best trade chips in all of baseball… a top starting pitcher who can be a legit #1 starter (or at least a fantastic #2 or #3 starter for a contender.)

A team in need of a jolt in fan interest, attendance and October revenue could make a big deal for Roy Oswalt and give the Astros and their depleted farm system a much needed replenishing.

Maybe it wouldn’t be the haul that the Blue Jays got for Roy Halladay or the Indians got for Cliff Lee… but they could get a few ready for the show pieces.

But don’t hold on to him too long!
If he gets hurt or too many teams fall out of it, they could be in the same position that the Orioles are in now…

Paying a lot of money for a guy who can’t contribute and can’t get any trade value in return.

Seriously… shop him around NOW!

Oh Astros... PLEASE trade Roy Oswalt

Last April I predicted the Astros would deal Roy Oswalt.

Last summer I couldn't believe he was still in Houston.

THIS April I told the Astros they should deal him... and later said they had to do it before he got hurt and had his value plummet.

Now they have to trade him because it is the kindest thing to do.

Seriously, he clearly can pitch like a #1 starter. Yet he has a 2-4 record with the Astros... who seem to be hellbent to lose 100 games this year.

They are in the middle of their second 8 game losing streak of the year. It's not even Cinco De Mayo yet!

They've only won 8 games... so that means they have had a losing streak that matches their win total TWICE!

And poor Roy Oswalt is 32 years old... not an old man but will probably not be a #1 starter by the time the Astros turn this ship around.

Today, Oswalt struck out 8 in 7 innings and let up only a solo homer to Justin Upton... FOR THE LOSS!

He has thrown 7 innings in each of his last 4 starts to a 1.92 ERA... and a 2-2 record over those 4 starts.

Seriously, there are not a lot of pitchers of Oswalts talent... they can get 3, maybe even 4 pieces to help build this team back up.

But forget the Astros future... they should just give Oswalt his parole.

A pennant contender could skyrocket to front runner status by sticking Oswalt into their rotation the way the Brewers did in 2008 with CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee did in 2009 with the Phillies.

Just do it Astros. It is the humane thing to do.

QUICK! Trade Roy Oswalt before he gets hurt!

Roy Oswalt now has exactly half of the Astros wins for this year.

That would be a hell of a lot more impressive if he were with the 8-2 Phillies or the 9-3 Twins.

Then again if he were the Twins, he'd have to have 4 1/2 wins which is impossible...

But he has one win. And the Astros have one other win.

And I have a feeling that there won't be a hell of a lot more wins to talk about this year. I wrote before about how Roy Oswalt could be a prime piece of trade bait, especially since the Astros team has 100 losses written all over it and is old with a lousy farm system.

I say trade Oswalt right now... not this month. I mean right now as I am writing this sentence.

You've got a bunch of teams who are off to better starts than people expected and nobody (save for the Astros, Mets and Orioles) look completely dead at this point.

Imagine a team like the Diamondbacks (who need someone to replace Webb) or the A's (who need a veteran at the head of their staff) or the Tigers (whose pitching staff already has some big names) showing their fan base that they are going for it.

Or the Angels needed to replace Lackey... or the Mariners filling in for the injured Cliff Lee with the promise of 3 aces in their staff... or the Red Sox moving Buchholz to the #5 slot for the deepest starting staff in the bigs... or the Yankees realizing what I knew already that trading for Javy Vazquez was an awful idea.

Oswalt is coming off of (for him) a down year but looks like an ace so far.
And the Astros need youth... and now with each game he pitches well his value goes up. But there's also the chance that he might get hurt and then blammo! His value is in "Oliver Perez" territory.

Do it, Astros. This season is over. You can get 3 good pieces at this point. A hungry team can show its fan base that this year is for real... and do so BEFORE Memorial Day. There will be more buzz and they'll have a top starter for almost the whole season.

I know it sucks... but do you know what also sucks? The 2010 Astros. Start thinking about 2011 NOW!

Roy Oswalt’s value could sky rocket

The Astros are the only team without a win this year.
I know it is early but it never looks good to be the last one to get a W. And the Astros are going to have that Musical Chairs feeling again today as they face Roy Halladay.

Now of course the Astros can counter with THEIR Roy… Roy Oswalt. But come on! The Stros are probably going to St Lou on Monday with an 0-6 record.

It’s going to be a long year for Brad Mills. Their team is too old and already breaking down. And even though there is no juggernaut in the division, they are decidedly worse than St. Louis and Milwaukee and don’t have Cincinnati’s youth.

I think they fell into the same trap as the Orioles in the late 1990s and 2000s and more recently the Giants and the Mets stumbled into:

They felt they were still a contender and made moves as if they were only a player away from the post season, when in reality they should have been rebuilding.

That mentality hamstrung the Orioles for a decade, decimated the post Bonds Giants until their pitching developed and turned the Mets into the mess that they are today.

Well, I’m not saying that the Astros are going to be winless this year… but they will certainly be playing golf in October and could use an injection of youth.

I have Baseball America’s preview of the top prospects at each position here.
They list 185 of the best young players in the minors.

3 are with the Astros.









Catcher Jason Castro, who played in double A last year.
Pitcher Jordan Lyles was in Low A last year.
Shortstop Jio Mier played in the lowest rung of the minors last year.

There’s your future!

But there could be a strange domino effect that could help the Astros a little bit.

At the trade deadline, virtually every contending team is looking for pitching… but recently the trend in front offices has been to lock up their top pitchers.

Josh Beckett and Yovani Gallardo were locked up this week. And Tom Verducci covers the other aces like Josh Johnson, CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, John Lackey etc who are now off the market.

So the demand will be high and the supply pretty small.

A healthy Roy Oswalt if traded well would fill in a hole (or 3) for a long while.

Now last year I called for the Astros to trade him… especially when he was flashing some of his ace stuff.

They didn’t. It didn’t make sense then and didn’t make sense now. They could have picked up 2 or 3 building blocks. Instead he started to have back problems and missed 200 innings for the first time in his career.

If he pitches well in the beginning of 2010, then the Astros HAVE to deal him.
There is no excuse.

The Indians have filled up their cupboard with a bunch of solid players for Sabathia and Lee.

The Blue Jays have some good youth for Halladay.

Oswalt isn’t on that level, but he was a 17 game winner as recently as 2008.
This is a guy with 5 top 5 Cy Young finishes and an NLCS MVP on his mantle.

You telling me a contender wouldn’t give up one of the 182 other prospects listed by Baseball America to have someone like that down the stretch?

Houston…. I know it doesn’t seem that long ago that you were in the World Series… but 2005 was 5 years ago!

It’s time to think about the new decade… and an old expensive team breaking down with no prospects in the minor league system is no way to turn the ship around.

Stay healthy Roy… pitch well… and we’ll see you in October with another club

Midseason look at my predictions

At the beginning of the year I made my 40 Fearless Predictions... and I also made my divisional picks...

I am sure some look prophetic and others looked pathetic.

I don't hide from my bad picks. 

In fact I sometimes flaunt them.

Either way, how are my fearless 40 doing?

1. THE YANKEES WILL MAKE THE POST SEASON BUT NOT MAKE IT TO THE WORLD SERIES... AND JOE GIRARDI WILL BE FIRED IN NOVEMBER

As of this writing the Yankees are in the Wild Card spot despite a rotten start, an A-Rod injury a tattered bullpen and panic in the Bronx in April. 

That bodes well for their playoff hopes. Their 5-15 record against teams currently in first place doesn't bode well for it being a deep playoff run. And if they miss the ALCS, Girardi will wish he took that Baltimore job a few years ago.

2. THE RED SOX WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS BUT MISS THE WORLD SERIES. FRANCONA'S JOB IS SAFE

So far the Sox have the best record in the American League. But October is a strange month and the Tigers could be that kind of team that wins a game in Fenway and next thing you know the Sox are facing elimination on the road.

Either way, Francona isn't going anywhere.

3. IF DAVID ORTIZ'S BAT IS SLOWING DOWN, HE'LL BE ON THE TRADE BLOCK

When Ortiz was well below Mendoza's standard and had one more homer than me, the Red Sox would have dealt him in a heartbeat if they could find a taker.

Now he's hitting again and all of Red Sox nation aren't watching his at bats as if we were watching Charlie Brown in the spelling bee.

4. THERE WILL BE A HOMOSEXUAL SCANDAL SURROUNDING ALEX RODRIGUEZ

There are still 2 1/2 months to the season... and you know it is possible.

5. FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ WILL FLOP WITH THE METS

If you told me that one game after the All Star Break the Mets would be 4 games UNDER .500 and trailing the Phillies by 7 1/2 games, 8 in the loss column, I would be almost 100% certain this prediction came true.

But alas, this is one of my stinkers.

K-Rod has possibly been the only bright spot for the wretched Mets team. And I have a hunch that his spotty post season record won't be tested this year.

6. ORLANDO CABRERA WILL HAVE ANOTHER YEAR THAT MAKES RED SOX, ANGELS AND WHITE SOX FANS SAY "WHY DID WE LET THIS GUY GO?"

Well I still have no clue why the Red Sox didn't resign him after the 2004 World Series... and that was exasperated today with the dumping of Julio Lugo.

But that doesn't cover up the fact that Cabrera's 2009 season has hardly been awe inspiring, and the A's frankly stink. 

But more on that later.

7. VLAD GUERRERO WILL NOT BE A FACTOR THIS YEAR DUE TO INJURIES... AND THE ANGELS WILL PLUMMET IN THE STANDINGS

Well, Vlad is on the DL now and his numbers are hardly MVP worthy.

And the team suffered injuries, slumps and tragedy in the first half. The fact they remain in first place at this point in the season is a terrific argument for Mike Scioscia's second manager of the year award.

8. ROY OSWALT PITCHES IN THE WORLD SERIES THIS YEAR... JUST NOT WITH THE ASTROS

One of the great things about the parity in baseball, especially in the National League, is the majority of teams are still in it after the All Star break.

The bad thing is most teams think they have a shot.

The Astros are old and while a game over .500, don't have a shot. They need a shot in the arm (and not the kind Miguel Tejada used to get.)

Trading Roy Oswalt would fetch them 2 or maybe 3 building blocks. This prediction is logically sound. The same can't be said for the management of the Houston Astros.

9. J. P. RICCIARDI AND CITO GASTON ARE FIRED BY MID JULY.

Well, it is Mid July now... and they both still have jobs.

But the feel good story of the year doesn't feel so good anymore. On May 18th, the Blue Jays were in first place with a 3 1/2 game lead on the Red Sox heading into Boston to make a statement.

They are 17-32 since, have a losing record and are dangling Roy Halladay the way the Astros should be dealing Roy Oswalt.

If the Orioles continue improving, the Blue Jays could finish in the cellar.

10. BOBBY COX CALLS IT QUITS IN MID SEASON AND TERRY PENDLETON BECOMES THE MANAGER

Cox has nothing left to prove, but I have the feeling he wants to leave the Braves as a winner. The team no longer has Maddux, Glavine or Smoltz and the new Braves are hovering around .500.

So far this prediction is wrong, but if they finish above .500 for the season, I think he'll call it a Hall of Fame career.



11. THE BREWERS SLIDE BACK INTO MEDIOCRITY AND PRINCE FIELDER HITS THE TRADE BLOCK

Now THIS what you call a lousy prediction... at least so far.

The Brewers are a modest winning streak away from being a first place team.

They are also a 4 game losing streak away from being sub .500.

Ah, the perils of parity in the National League.


12. THE UPTON BROTHERS BOTH HAVE BREAKOUT YEARS.

Well Justin is holding up his end of the bargain. He's already established a career high in homers and RBI, has a batting average of .301, an OPS of .918 and made his first All Star team.

B.J. came back from surgery slowly... like sub .180 batting average and sub .500 OPS slowly.

But he got his average up to the .240s and his OPS in the .700s... maybe he'll have a monster second half.


13. CHAD TRACY WILL HIT 25 HOMERS AND MAKE THE ALL STAR TEAM

This was a hunch pick.

I thought the D'Backs were going to be decent and I thought some of their bats were going to wake up.

Instead Bob Melvin is searching the help wanted section and Chad Tracy missed all of June with injuries.



14. MANNY RAMIREZ WILL HIT 50 HOMERS, WIN THE NL MVP AND TAKE A WIZZ ON THE LEFT FIELD SCOREBOARD


Oh yeah, like YOU knew he was going to test positive!

Missing 50 games makes 50 homers a stretch.

There's still time for him to take a leak on the scoreboard.

15. THE GIANTS WILL CONTEND FOR THE NL WEST CROWN INTO SEPTEMBER

Don't look now, but the Giants are a playoff team. They have a 1 1/2 game lead for the Wild Card as I type this.

And also, don't look now, but that Dodger lead, which was 9 1/2 games in early June is down to 6 1/2.

A good August by the Giants, whose starting rotation is looking scarier by the week, and a mediocre month from the Dodgers could bring SF to within striking distance.

Just saying.

16. THE NL WEST WON'T BE AS BAD AS PEOPLE THINK

The Dodgers have baseball's best record.

The Giants are the wild card team.

Jim Tracy has righted the ship in Colorado.

Only the Padres (division champs of 2005 and 2006) and the Diamondbacks (division champs of 2007) stink.


17. CLIFF LEE'S 2008 WAS A FLUKE

The whole Indians team has fallen apart and Lee isn't on anyone's short list for Cy Young contenders.

But his 3.31 ERA plus a few recent gems thrown should make him very very interesting trade bait for the Indians who need more pieces to the puzzle and probably won't be a pennant contender until Lee is in his mid 30s.


18. KEN GRIFFEY JR'S FAREWELL TOUR IN SEATTLE WILL BE NICE BUT IN THE END KIND OF SAD

I've written about the strange cross road that the Mariners have hit. They would be trading veterans all over creation and possibly laying down the foundation for the next great Mariners team... if only this team did what it was supposed to do and suck!

But save for a few homers, Griffey is a shell of his former self. And it's always kind of sad to say goodbye.

19. THE FLORIDA MARLINS WILL WIN 90 GAMES

A few weeks into the season, it looked like the Marlins would win 100 games!

If only they could play the Nationals every day.

Either way, they have their nose above .500 and a solid second half could bring them over the top. No team is as streaky as Florida!



20. WASHINGTON NATIONALS WILL LOSE 110 GAMES AND PASS ON STEPHEN STRASBERG IN THE DRAFT

110 losses looks like a given at this point.

As for Strasberg, they did pick him, but if they don't sign him it could be a disaster.

21. MATT WIETERS ISN'T READY

Well they took their time bringing him up, for obvious financial reasons.

Weiters isn't on anyone's shortlist of Rookie of the Year candidates, but he hasn't embarrassed himself either.

22. TRAVIS HAFNER WILL BE TRADED, PAVING THE WAY FOR MATT LaPORTA'S ROOKIE OF THE YEAR SEASON

Man I drank the Kool Aid with Matt LaPorta, who didn't exactly tear up big league pitching this spring before returning to Columbus.

But his .312 average and .929 OPS in AAA show he might be ready to break out in the second half... and Hafner, whose numbers aren't horrible, needs to go.

23. THE PADRES WILL DEAL JAKE PEAVY TO THE CARDINALS AND INCLUDE DAVID ECKSTEIN IN THE TRADE

Ohhh man how happy are the White Sox that their trade was rejected!

And how mad are the Padres that they didn't pull the trigger on a deal when they can?

The Padres will never get their peak value for Peavy... and the suffering in San Diego continues.



24 . PADRES MANAGER BUD BLACK WILL BE FIRED BEFORE JUNE.

Bud Black is still the manager for the Padres.

Isn't that strange?

Anyone have any idea why?

25. THE PIRATES WILL MAKE A RUN AT .500

Maybe this was wishful thinking...

The Pirates should just declare themselves a farm team at this point. 

It would be funny if it wasn't so sad to see one of the great proud franchises in baseball reduced to sending away players when they get good, getting little in return and continue their irrelevance streak to 17 years.

26. JOSH HAMILTON IS FOR REAL

He has the second half of the season to show that he is... and to retroactively earn that spot on the All Star team.

27. THE RAYS WILL STUMBLE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, RELAX AND MAKE A RUN AT A PLAYOFF SPOT

Hey! A prediction that so far looks pretty good.

The Rays are too talented a squad to be the team that began the season so poorly.

Plus they are a lot younger than the Yankees. If they can pick up a pitcher, they'd be in great shape.

Wonder if the Tigers will be willing to trade back Edwin Jackson?

28. DAVID PRICE WILL JOIN THE RAYS FOR GOOD IN MID MAY

Mid May was an easy prediction. But he's been off and on with his effectiveness. He's have to win 9 games in the second half to match my prediction of 12 wins.

He's not showing a lot of control. Where was that lack of control in the 8th and 9th inning of last years ALCS?


29. THE CINCINNATI REDS WILL BE THE MOST EXCITING TEAM TO WATCH ALL YEAR

They haven't been boring, that's for sure.

There are some days they look like they are about to break out.

Then there are some days they look like a sub .500 team going nowhere.

They are sub .500 and 5 1/2 games out now... they'll need a pretty exciting second half to make this an accurate prediction.


30. THE PHILLIES WILL WIN THEIR THIRD STRAIGHT DIVISION TITLE

Just a few weeks ago, it looked like there might be a 4 way tie in the NL East.

But with a rotten pitching staff, Brad Lidge imploding and Jimmy Rollins having a HORRIBLE first half, the Phillies find themselves with a 5 game lead and visions of Roy Halladay dancing in their heads.

Pretty safe bet.


31. DESPITE CHRIS IANNETTA'S BREAK OUT YEAR, THE ROCKIES WILL BE OUT OF IT BY MAY

It takes a really lousy crystal ball to get TWO things wrong in one prediction!

Iannetta has been anything but a breakout star, but the Rockies have been one of most pleasant surprises of the year.

After purging Clint Hurdle, Jim Tracy has piloted the team to a 30-13 mark and brought them to within 1 1/2 games of San Francisco.


32. THE ROYALS WILL HAVE A WINNING SEASON, BUT FINISH A DISTANT THIRD PLACE

It's a marathon, not a sprint.

That's a cliche I know, but some cliches are there for a reason. The Royals started out great led by Grienke.

Now they are 37-51, sinking like a rock and thinking about rebuilding... again.


33. THE GHOSTS OF 2006 PERSIST IN DETROIT

The success of the Tigers completely baffles me... to the point that I don't even want the Red Sox to see them in October.

I thought they were a mess, but here we are!

The Tigers have a 3 1/2 game lead over the White Sox and look like they may have the horses (and the arms) to pull this off.

Who knew?



34. GARY SHEFFIELD WILL HIT .198, 3 HOMERS AND BE CUT AGAIN IN JUNE

It's shocking to see Sheffield had anything left in the tank. I kind of thought the Tigers cutting him was a sign that it was all over.

But true to form, Sheffield plays well with a chip on his shoulder.

The Mets are going nowhere in a hurry, maybe a team in need of a DH should take a flier on him.

Why not? The Tigers are paying for him anyway!



35. JUSTIN MORNEAU WILL LEAD THE TWINS TO AN EASY DIVISION TITLE

Morneau held up his end of the bargain! He's as good an MVP candidate as anyone along with his teammate Joe Mauer.

The Twins are 4 back of Detroit.

The Division might not be so easily won, but it is not out of reach!

36. THE BEST TEAM IN CHICAGO WON'T BE IN WRIGLEY

This looked like a daring prediction when I made it, but I felt the White Sox were getting short changed in the "respect for defending Division Champion" department.

The White Sox are 2 games over .500.

The Cubs are 1 game over .500.

So far, so good.

37. MILTON BRADLEY IS A TERRIBLE FIT IN CHICAGO

What a shock!

Lou Piniella and Milton Bradley weren't a good fit!

Do GMs not read the newspaper?

38. SORRY CUBS FANS

I am probably the only person who didn't think the Cubs were October bound this year.

They aren't out of the race. In fact they are only 3 games out... but a few things need to break their way, and so far NOTHING has this year.



39. PEDRO MARTINEZ RETURNS TO THE DODGERS

The Dodgers were still the only place where it made sense for Pedro to go.

And yet he is a Philadelphia Phillie.

What do I know?

40. COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR? ERIC CHAVEZ OF OAKLAND

This picture of Eric Chavez is not from this year.

I couldn't find  a picture of Eric Chavez playing this year.

He's only played in 8 games so far this year.

He has a .100 average.

He's not winning that award this year.

So there you have it... some right, some jaw droppingly wrong.

But a whole second half of a season to go.

Maybe Eric Chavez can turn it around!