Sully Baseball's Fearless 40 Predictions for 2009

Because I don't have that Time Capsule from Knowing, I don't have real knowledge of what is going to happen this baseball season.

But one thing I DO know, is that after last season... there is no such thing as a crazy prediction.

If I had told you at the beginning of 2008 that the Tampa Bay Rays would be playing in the World Series, you would have put me in a straight jacket.

Then again, if on September 15, 2007, when the Rockies lost their third straight game to fall to 4th place, 6 1/2 games back with 14 to play, I told you those same Colorado Rockies would be playing in the World Series a month later... it would be straight jacket time.

If I told you going into the 2006 season, with the Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, White Sox and Twins all looking strong, that the AL Pennant would be won by the Tigers, coming off of 12 straight losing seasons and just three years removed from a 119 loss season... more straight jackets would be needed.

So we've had at least three straight years of completely off the wall results and yet still everyone prediction for the season looks almost the same around the country.

It's using conventional wisdom:
It's the same old teams every year. I even had someone posting on my comment section bringing up this Salary Cap nonsense again.

I said it last year... Conventional Wisdom Is Wrong!

Baseball will continue to be unpredictable.
Baseball will continue to go into the last month with very few teams out of it.

Big budget teams will crumble. (The top 3 payrolls and 4 of the top 6 payrolls missed the post season last year.)

Small budget teams will succeed. (In 2007, three of the final four teams in the post season were in the bottom third of payroll. Last year the Rays won the AL pennant with the AL's lowest payroll.)

And each lousy team one year will point to the '06 Tigers and '08 Rays for inspiration.
And every team teetering on the brink in September will point to the '07 Rockies.

Pitchers who had lousy seasons the year before will look to '08 Cy Young winner Cliff Lee.

Players who had never broken out will look to Carlos Quentin... before he broke his own hand.

There's no such thing as a crazy, dismissable prediction anymore.

And I am going to make a few predictions right here and now.

PREDICTION 1:
THE YANKEES WILL MAKE THE POST SEASON BUT NOT MAKE IT TO THE WORLD SERIES... AND JOE GIRARDI WILL BE FIRED IN NOVEMBER

Every year since 2001, the sense of urgency in the Bronx has taken on absurd proportions.

And every year since 2001, everyone acts that all of the Yankees new toys will mean a parade is a lock and people cry about a salary cap.

And every since 2001 except last year has ended with Jeter doing the 1,000 yard star watching another team celebrate.

Last year they didn't even have the decency to contend.

Missing the playoffs, the A-Rod zoo (the hooker allegations didn't even get our attention!), the new Stadium, the new players plus the elephant in the room (Jeter and Rivera's age) make this a make or break season.

WELCOME TO NEW YORK, TEIXERA AND SABATHIA!

PREDICTION 2:
THE RED SOX WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS BUT MISS THE WORLD SERIES. FRANCONA'S JOB IS SAFE

See, I can be objective!

They'll pitch and they'll score runs... but having Lowell, Varitek and Ortiz as question marks is tough to work around.

And the only way right field would be less secure health wise is if they signed Stephen Hawking.




PREDICTION 3:
IF DAVID ORTIZ'S BAT IS SLOWING DOWN, HE'LL BE ON THE TRADE BLOCK

Oh, that's impossible you say?
Does Theo Epstein strike you as a sentimental person?

Nomar, Pedro, Damon and Manny all left town on his watch.
He is part Vulcan. He has one concern. WIN NOW!

He would have dealt Yaz in 1979... and probably get something good in return.


PREDICTION 4:
THERE WILL BE A HOMOSEXUAL SCANDAL SURROUNDING ALEX RODRIGUEZ

At this point, what other scandals are left?

Besides, after the Details Magazine photospread, you know it is inevitable.

(I bet the Post has had a GAY-ROD headline prepared since he arrived from Texas.)



OK... enough Red Sox/Yankees predictions.



PREDICTION 5:
FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ WILL FLOP WITH THE METS

I've covered this already...
K-Rod as a "big game closer" is the biggest fallacy since "Bartman lost the 2003 NLCS."

People take it for granted.
3 minutes of research shows it is wrong.

Benitez phase two begins in New York.

PREDICTION 6: 

ORLANDO CABRERA WILL HAVE ANOTHER YEAR THAT MAKES RED SOX, ANGELS AND WHITE SOX FANS SAY "WHY DID WE LET THIS GUY GO?"

The A's are going to have a terrific season and winning just follows Cabrera. 

He's a new generation's Lonnie Smith.

PREDICTION 7: 

VLAD GUERRERO WILL NOT BE A FACTOR THIS YEAR DUE TO INJURIES... AND THE ANGELS WILL PLUMMET IN THE STANDINGS

The whole offense is built around Vlad. Ask Giants fans how it works out to put all your hopes on an incredibly talented yet falling apart superstar.

They lost their best chance to win Scioscia another ring last year.

PREDICTION 8: 

ROY OSWALT PITCHES IN THE WORLD SERIES THIS YEAR... JUST NOT WITH THE ASTROS

The Astros are probably going to be a 90 loss team and Roy Oswalt (along with Jake Peavy) will be the best trade chips of the lot.

Oswalt will be dealt off earlier than expected... and become a difference maker for which ever team gets him.

PREDICTION 9: 

J. P. RICCIARDI AND CITO GASTON ARE FIRED IN MID JULY


The Blue Jays are going nowhere and all reasons to believe Ricciardi will lead them to the promise land are over. Seeing Tampa become a contender and not a fluke will be the last straw.

Former Brewers manager Ned Yost takes over.

PREDICTION 10:
BOBBY COX CALLS IT QUITS IN MID SEASON AND TERRY PENDLETON BECOMES THE MANAGER

He's got nothing left to prove and while the Braves are stocked with talent, I don't see them making a post season run.

Pendleton gets his break with the team and he tries to put a 1991-esque stamp on the team.

PREDICTION 11
THE BREWERS SLIDE BACK INTO MEDIOCRITY AND PRINCE FIELDER HITS THE TRADE BLOCK


Hope you had fun last year, Brewers fans.

I think the ride is now over.

PREDICTION 12 

THE UPTON BROTHERS BOTH HAVE BREAK OUT YEARS

Yes I know B. J. is recovering from surgery. But their recent tastes of playoff baseball and a desire to play in better places for baseball than Tampa and Arizona will light a fire under them.

(Better places than Arizona and Tampa Bay for baseball?)

PREDICTION 13 

CHAD TRACY WILL HIT 25 HOMERS AND MAKE THE ALL STAR TEAM


The Diamondbacks offense will strike out too much.

PREDICTION 14 

MANNY RAMIREZ WILL HIT 50 HOMERS, WIN THE NL MVP AND TAKE A WIZZ ON THE LEFT FIELD SCOREBOARD

(Author's note. I think "Take a wizz" is spelled W-H-I-Z. My wife thinks it is W-I-Z-Z. I am a dutiful husband and spelled it her way.)

PREDICTION 15 

THE GIANTS WILL CONTEND FOR THE NL WEST CROWN INTO SEPTEMBER

They can pitch with anyone and finally are letting kids under the age of 35 into their line up.

If they can pick up a bat, maybe the Wild Card isn't out of reach.

PREDICTION 16

THE NL WEST WON'T BE AS BAD AS PEOPLE THINK


People forget that in 2002, 2006 and 2007, the NL West had two playoff entries.

Those years aren't that long ago.

And last time I checked the NL East and NL Central aren't exactly overflowing with 100 win teams.

PREDICTION 17 

CLIFF LEE'S 2008 WAS A FLUKE

8-12... ERA of 4.70 is my pick.

PREDICTION 18 

KEN GRIFFEY JR'S FAREWELL TOUR IN SEATTLE WILL BE NICE BUT IN THE END KIND OF SAD

He saved baseball in the Pacific Northwest, but he's an adequate DH at best.

The greatest talent I have ever see play live will limp to the finish line... his best chance at a title all the way back in 1995.

PREDICTION 19 

THE FLORIDA MARLINS WILL WIN 90 GAMES

They have an MVP candidate in Hanley Ramirez.

They have a sickening amount of young talent on the team.

They have pitchers with filthy stuff.

And they won 84 games despite having a lower payroll than the vendors at Dolphin Stadium.

They will be a pain in the neck all year and will contend throughout September.

PREDICTION 20 

WASHINGTON NATIONALS WILL LOSE 110 GAMES AND PASS ON STEPHEN STRASBERG IN THE DRAFT

But don't worry... they have a plan!

PREDICTION 21 

MATT WIETERS ISN'T READY

The Orioles catcher is considered to be Rookie of the Year pick. But he'll disppoint and be sent down to the minors. I'm not saying he won't be a great player. But he'll need another year and lowered expectations.

PREDICTION 22 

TRAVIS HAFNER WILL BE TRADED, PAVING THE WAY FOR MATT LaPORTA'S ROOKIE OF THE YEAR SEASON

It will be like when the Phillies dealt away Jim Thome to make room for Ryan Howard.

If they can't find a trade partner, they'll just cut Hafner.

PREDICTION 23 

THE PADRES WILL DEAL JAKE PEAVY TO THE CARDINALS AND INCLUDE DAVID ECKSTEIN IN THE TRADE

Peavy will be a 20 game winner under Duncan and the St. Louis experiment at second will flop, causing them to bring back the former World Series MVP.

By the way, how awesome/awful are those yellow unis?

PREDICTION 24 

PADRES MANAGER BUD BLACK WILL BE FIRED BEFORE JUNE.

Tony Gwynn will be rumored as a replacement but it will wind up being Ted Simmons. It won't matter. The Padres and Nationals will still be the worst teams in baseball.

PREDICTION 25
THE PIRATES WILL MAKE A RUN AT .500

Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Nate McLouth and friends will play better than expected. Paul Maholm will win 16 games and the Pirates will have a shot at a .500 season with a week to play.

PREDICTION 26

JOSH HAMILTON IS FOR REAL

He's going to put up MVP stats again... not that it will matter in Texas.

PREDICTION 27

THE RAYS WILL STUMBLE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, RELAX AND MAKE A RUN AT A PLAYOFF SPOT

Teams that come out of nowhere have a hard time surprising in back to back years... yet the talent on this team will be too great.

PREDICTION 28

DAVID PRICE WILL JOIN THE RAYS FOR GOOD IN MID MAY

And he will win 12 games with an ERA around 3.50. By 2010 he'll be a Cy Young contender.

PREDICTION 29

THE CINCINNATI REDS WILL BE THE MOST EXCITING TEAM TO WATCH ALL YEAR

Votto, Bruce and Phillips will be feeding off each other. With the veterans Griffey and Dunn gone, the clubhouse will be a joy, the park will be packed and Cincinnati fans, starving for a winner, will get their wish.

Harang will turn it around, and between Volquez, Cueto, Owings, Arroyo and a veteran filled bullpen, they'll make Cincinnati a baseball mad town again.

PREDICTION 30

THE PHILLIES WIN WIN THEIR THIRD STRAIGHT DIVISION TITLE

And Phillies fans start to get less angry.

PREDICTION 31

DESPITE CHRIS IANNETTA'S BREAK OUT YEAR, THE ROCKIES WILL BE OUT OF IT BY MAY

Garret Atkins, Brad Hawpe, Aaron Cook and Manny Corpas will all be available and Clint Hurdle will be checking Craigslist for job openings.

PREDICTION 32

THE ROYALS WILL HAVE A WINNING SEASON, BUT FINISH A DISTANT THIRD PLACE

They have become a trendy Cinderella pick. I don't trust their starting pitching, however their bullpen might be deep enough that they don't blow close games... giving the Royals some confidence that the 2010s will be better than the 1990s and 2000s.

PREDICTION 33

THE GHOSTS OF 2006 PERSIST IN DETROIT

The season will be nothing short of a disaster. Verlander, Bonderman, Willis and Robertson are cooked. The second an injury befalls Ordonez or Cabrera, they'll start chucking bodies over the side.

They've already started with Gary Sheffield.

Jim Leyland will resign after the season.

PREDICTION 34

GARY SHEFFIELD WILL HIT .198, 3 HOMERS AND BE CUT AGAIN IN JUNE

There is nothing left in that tank.

PREDICTION 35

JUSTIN MORNEAU WILL LEAD THE TWINS TO AN EASY DIVISION TITLE

Their talent is better by far than any of the other Division rivals and getting Liriano back is like a huge Free Agent signing. They'll win the Division by 11 games.

PREDICTION 36

THE BEST TEAM IN CHICAGO WON'T BE IN WRIGLEY

Nobody gives the Defending Division Champs any credit, but the White Sox knew when to fold 'em with Griffey and Joe Crede and the intensely overrated Javier Vasquez. Now they suddenly have a team with young hungry hitters and Floyd and Danks in their rotation.

Why aren't they getting more love?

PREDICTION 37

MILTON BRADLEY IS A TERRIBLE FIT IN CHICAGO

He can't play the field. He has a temper like Sonny Corleone and you are throwing him into a club house with Sweet Lou at the helm and on year 101 in Cub-town.

120 games TOPS out of Milton Bradley.

They might as well have traded for the Parker Brothers.

PREDICTION 38

SORRY CUB FANS...

Trading for Kevin Gregg, the reliever who basically torpedoed the Marlins wild card chance was the stupidest trade the Cubs have made in years.

No third straight Division Title in Wrigley-ville.

PREDICTION 39

PEDRO MARTINEZ RETURNS TO THE DODGERS...

But it won't be pretty. Still, seeing Joe Torre manage Pedro will be one of the strangest sights of the year.

AND FINALLY

PREDICTION 40

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR? ERIC CHAVEZ OF OAKLAND

He's going to love having Cabrera, Holliday and Giambi in the line up with him.

So those are my fearless predictions...

And at the end of October, I'll compare my picks to reality.

Keep in mind, my predictions are usually terrible.

But this year, I have a good feeling!