Showing posts with label stats. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stats. Show all posts

Sunday, June 30, 2013

Sully Baseball Daily Podcast - June 30, 2013



It's Sunday and you know what that means on  The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.
It's time for THE SUNDAY REQUEST.

I do a show whose topic was requested by a listener via Twitter.

Today's topic was from @ceekim .
What is the worst statistic in baseball?

Anyone expecting me to be trashing WAR in this podcast might be surprised.

Send post your questions via Twitter to @sullybaseball

Adam Wainwright, Chris Davis, Joe Blanton and Alfonso Soriano all owned baseball on June 29, 2013.


To see the up to date tally of "Who Owns Baseball?," click HERE.
Subscribe on iTunes HERE.

Sully Baseball Daily Podcast - June 30, 2013
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Sunday, September 30, 2012

Melky's suspension is denying us dual M. Cabrera Batting Titles



Melky Cabrera is off the Giants. He will not be on the playoff roster. He will probably not be back with San Francisco next year. And his wonderful break through season will forever be tainted by his P.E.D. suspension and that whole weird website thing.

That's not what I am lamenting.

I like strange things in baseball. And the minute Melky Cabrera did what Bud Selig did not have the guts to do and remove himself from the batting race, the game was made better by that moment of accountability.

But history was denied a strange coincidence.

Here are the current batting standings, which include Cabrera:





It's a double take.

But the American League and the National League have M. Cabrera as the batting leader. Miguel in the American League and Melky in the National League.

Seriously, I demand to know the odds of that.

That does not happen where the batting leader of both leagues have the same last name and the same first initial. And for two guys who are not brothers!

There was no William Boggs winning batting titles in the 1980s for the National League.

Nobody named Tiberius Williams won no titles in the National League.

I do not recall anyone named Randolph Carew or Thaddeus Gwynn or Horatio Wagner or Simon Musial winning a batting crown.

This would have been a first.

And would it be worth having a caught PED user win the batting title to have this kind of coincidence in the history books?

I'm not so certain that I know the answer to that.

Sure punishing those who do wrong and teaching our kids a lesson is great.
But so are oddities like this.




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Sunday, May 13, 2012

Somewhere there is a stat head who is trashing Joey Votto's day














I am not sure how. I am not sure why. But there is someone who has calculated that Joey Votto actually HURT the team today.

There is some formula out there that has a 4-5, 6 RBI, 4 run scored day with three home runs including a walk off, 2 out, 2 strike, one pitch from losing the game walk off Grand Slam and puts it in the "Negative" column.

Someone is checking his Base/Out/Contact/Fielded/Produced/Reduced/Replacement/Potential Average and realize that today's game actually brought it down.

And we all know the true value comes from a player's BOCFPRRPA is the best unit to measure their productivity.

Unless you use ADJUSTED Base/Out/Contact/Fielded/Produced/Reduced/Replacement/Potential Average which takes into account whether or not it rained that day.


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Saturday, October 15, 2011

The First Grade

My sons started the first grade this year... and that makes me feel older than my 39 years.

First grade was a significant grade for me and it led directly to this blog you are currently reading and everything Sully Baseball.

Let me explain.

When I was in nursery school and kindergarten, I watched baseball with my parents and my grandfather and our wonderful neighbor/baby sitter/member of the family Mrs. Bianchi.

And I also liked baseball cards. But all I was interested in was seeing all the different teams a player played on. I called it the "Year Club." (That's what it said on top of the card. Year. Club. So naturally it was the Year Club.)


But I didn't know who was a good player (unless they were a Kellogg's 3D Super Star!)


All of that changed in the first grade.

I went to the Country School in Weston Massachusetts for First Grade. My teacher was Mrs. Bresciani.

The first day of school in September of 1978 I was blissfully unaware of the massacre that the Yankees were giving the Red Sox. I hadn't understood how the playoffs worked and I wasn't following the day to day events of a baseball team.


Instead I was sitting in a classroom where Mrs. Bresciani asked us to draw something we did during our summer vacation.


My aunt Mary and uncle Marty had taken my brother and me to Yankee Stadium that year and it made quite an impression on me.

So a 6 year old Sully drew Yankee Stadium as best as I could.

Mrs. Bresciani saw the drawing and asked me if I liked baseball. I said I did.

I also liked Star Wars, Batman and Sid and Marty Kroftt shows.

Mrs. Bresciani told me that her husband worked for the Red Sox. I wondered if he was a player.

Instead I found out he was the statistician for the Red Sox.

So all throughout first grade, I learned how to spell, add, subtract and reading comprehension
But I also learned what all of those numbers on the back of the baseball card meant.


I would ask what an RBI was. What a save was. Why some pitchers get a win and others don't. Why do some pitchers start and some don't.


I even learned what batting average and ERA were (even if the division was a little over my head.)

I knew if you batted .300 or more you were really good.
I know if your ERA was under 3.50 you were really good.

So all of those baseball cards stopped being pictures of players and the key to understanding their value to a team.

Mrs. Bresciani taught me how to keep score and I would sometimes bring a piece of paper and a pencil out to recess and keep score of a kick ball game.


At Halloween, she brought in Jerry Remy's uniform for us to see. It was like seeing the Shroud of Turin.


And when the 1979 season began, I REALLY followed baseball. Day in and day out I read the box scores and checked the standings. The Red Sox were good that year but no match for the Baltimore Orioles.


I knew all the players. I knew who was doing well. Who was hurt. And in 1979 there was Carl Yastrzemski's chase for 3,000 hits and 400 homers.


My favorite player was Butch Hobson. But I crowned him my favorite player before Mrs. Bresciani taught me about stats. I made Butch my favorite because I liked the name Butch.

In 1979 I understood that Jim Rice and Fred Lynn were better players.

The seed was planted in the first grade. And from that seed did an obsessive compulsive tree grow!

So as MY boys start their first grade voyage, I am continuing mine to this day.

Dick Bresciani is now the Vice President of Publications and Archives with the Red Sox and often appears on TV talking about Sox history.

If you are still out there, Mrs. Bresciani, thanks for teaching me what an RBI is.

And be thankful I wasn't asking "What is the difference between OPS+, VORP and WAR?"









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Saturday, July 16, 2011

Hey Colby Rasmus defenders? Where did you go? (I love being right!)


















Last September, I trashed Colby Rasmus on the blog for being kind of a punk.
A guy who had a year and a half of playing time in the bigs and looked like a good player but hardly a world beater started bitching and moaning about his playing time.

He essentially was calling out Tony LaRussa, one of two people to manage a World Champion in both leagues and someone who if he went through the Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind clinic and zapped out his last 15 years in baseball, he would STILL know more baseball than Colby Rasmus would ever contain in his head.

Even Albert Pujols, who never calls anyone out, called out Rasmus.

And in my post I basically said "Who the hell is Colby Rasmus to make a stink like this?"

I said he was a nice player who hasn't earned the right to start making a stink about playing time. A lot of players start off well enough and then flame out. Rasmus hadn't proven that he wasn't Angel Berroa, Bobby Crosby, Eric Hinske, Marty Cordova or Jerome Walton.

Oh my God, you'd think I had just called Hank Aaron overrated!

The e mailers and the commenters were out in full force. Somehow I had struck a nerve by implying that Colby Rasmus wasn't ALREADY a great player.

People were bringing up his OPS.
People were bringing up his WAR.

One comment said that his accomplishments were unheard of for a 23 year old.

Well the 24 year old has seen his stats start to plummet. His average, on base, slugging and OPS have come down to "Nothing Special-Ville."

And while I still haven't figured out WAR yet, I am guessing 0.6 isn't elite.

Hmmmm.
Where did all of his defenders go?

Where are the people calling him an elite player based upon the latest statistical fad?

Sounds like maybe Tony LaRussa, not exactly a dimwit, knew what he was doing last year.
But seriously... I'm dying to hear from his defenders.

Remind me how he is, and I quote one of them, "ONE OF THE MOST 20 VALUABLE PLAYERS IN BASEBALL RIGHT NOW!"

(Is he even one of the 20 most valuable Cardinals?)

Look, new stats can be great and create a unique perspective on the game. But if WAR can make you think that Colby Freaking Rasmus is an elite player, then that's all I need to know about WAR.

I'm sure his defenders will LOVE this video.



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Thursday, July 07, 2011

New Sully Baseball Video "New Baseball Math"





In the latest Sully Baseball Video I talk about how confusing the world of stats can be. I understand why there are new ways of looking at games, but can we stick to one set of stats for a while?

At least long enough for me to understand them!

You can see all of the Sully Baseball videos here on my ShortForm TV Channel.

As always my wife Lisa wrote the script with me, shot it, directed and contributed to the editing.










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Tuesday, May 31, 2011

I am really not worried about Jon Lester

















I know I should be terrified about Lester.
I know I should be breaking down his every start and wondering if this were the end.

I know 4 of his last 5 starts have stunk.

I know he is supposed to be our Cy Young contender.

But I just can't panic.
Let's say this is the 1/3 mark of the season...
Let's say Lester has the exact same result each of the next thirds of the season.

He'd be 21-6 with a 3.94 ERA. 210 innings pitched and 207 strikeouts.
I'd take that.

And yeah, I know he would benefit from a lot of offense and good closer.
So what?

Would you rather have a 20 game winner who was lucky or a 12-12 pitcher with great stats who was unlucky?

I'd rather have the 20 game winner. Do you know why? That means my team is WINNING.

I'm not worried.
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