Halfway done... let's take a look at my playoff picks

So here we are at the halfway mark of the year.
This has been a bonkers year. Some things nobody could have foreseen.

(Like YOU saw the Nationals being awesome and the Phillies being terrible.)

Some I actually predicted.

 (Yup, I predicted the Pirates and Dodgers having a good year.)

Let's see how my picks look.

AL East 
Pick - TAMPA BAY RAYS
Actual at break - NEW YORK YANKEES
If you told me the Yankees would lose Mariano Rivera and have a ton of pitching injuries, I would assume they were around .500. Instead the Yankees have the best record in baseball and the biggest lead. Don't count the Rays out. They can still pitch and Joe Maddon has the team winning with mirrors. As a Sox fan, I remember all too well how the Rays can win down the stretch.

AL Central
Pick - DETROIT TIGERS
Actual at break - CHICAGO WHITE SOXLike YOU picked the White Sox. The South Siders have been winning with a dynamite young pitching staff led by Jake Peavy and Chris Sale. Plus they can hit and Adam Dunn found his home run swing. But a late surge by the Tigers put them over .500. Look out.

AL West

Pick - LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM

Actual at break - TEXAS RANGERS
The Angels got off to such a bad start and the Rangers came out of the gate so strong that the West might have been clinched in the Spring. That being said, the Angels and the Rangers might be the two best constructed teams in the American League

AL Wild Cards

Pick - NEW YORK YANKEES and TEXAS RANGERS

Actual at break - LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM and BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Whomever doesn't win the west is getting a Wild Card slot. As for the Orioles, Buck Showalter has them in position for the post season for the first time since 1997 despite a -37 run differential. Say what you want about Buck. He can manage.

NL East

Pick - MIAMI MARLINS

Actual at break - WASHINGTON NATIONALS
What is more startling? How good the Nationals have been or how bad the Marlins and Phillies are? It's a tough call in the Division where black is white and up is down.

NL Central

Pick - PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Actual at break - PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Oh, I am gloating about this pick. Andrew McCutchen is blossoming into an amazing star.

NL West

Pick - LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Actual at break - LOS ANGELES DODGERS
More gloating. It's fun to be at Chavez Ravine. Who called it? Oh, that would be me.

NL Wild Cards

Pick - PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES and SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Actual at break - ATLANTA BRAVES and CINCINNATI REDS
I thought the Phillies would take a step back. I didn't see them falling off a cliff. The Giants are only half a game back and if Tim Lincecum has a good second half, they could catch the Dodgers.

OK, enough of looking back.
Let's play ball and see how this season REALLY ends.

Astros: Make a Decision on Manager Brad Mills Now - A Bleacher Report Article

The Astros stink again this year. Last season they lost 100 games for the first time. They may do it again in 2012.

Everyone knows that manager Brad Mills is as good as gone. But in my latest for Bleacher Report, I urge the Astros to make their decision now.

Don't have him twist in the wind. Let him go or give him control. Having him dangle helps nothing.

You can read the entire article HERE.

I think I figured out how they pick an All Star MVP

I think a few media members quickly get together at the end of the game and ask one question.
"Did anyone on the winning team hit a home run?"

If the answer is yes, then that person is the automatic MVP.

Pablo Sandoval hits the bases clearing triple that blows the game open early.
Matt Cain throws the two shutout innings that sets the tone for the National League's dominance.

But they give the award to Melky Cabrera because he hit a home run when the National League already had a comfortable lead?

Yeah.
That makes sense.

An All Star Game Note for the Texas Rangers

Hey Texas Rangers.
When you finish the season with the best record in baseball but have to start Game 1 of the World Series on the road, you can thank Justin Verlander and his rotten performance last night.

Enjoy the second half of the season and see you in the World Series.

Those Giants sure PLAYED like All Stars

Remember how people were complaining about how the Giants had a pair of undeserving starters in the All Star Game?

Remember the criticism of the All Star selections and that Giant fans basically stuffed the ballot boxes?

And of course picking Matt Cain over R. A. Dickey was the baseball equivalent of kicking a stray dog for Met fans.

Well for all of the negative thoughts about the inclusion of many thoughts, they certainly showed their worth on the field.

Who got the hit that took the wind out of the American League's sails?

That would be Pablo Sandoval and his three run triple in the first off of Justin Verlander.

If you talked to a Met fan since the All Star voting results were announced, you would assume that Sandoval is famous only for his cute  nickname.

It turns out this Kung Fu panda has some skills.

Who got the win? That would be Cain with two shutout innings?

Yet neither won the MVP of the game. That would be Melky Cabrera, whose homer put the game out

Maybe Giant fans are smarter voters than we thought.

Either way, the 2012 All Star game was not to exciting, but it was a pretty amazing showcase for the Giants stars.

Their players are All Star worthy.

Why Matt Cain Starting over R.A. Dickey Is a Good Thing - A Bleacher Report Article

I think R. A. Dickey should win the NL Cy Young Award and is one of the best stories of the season.

That being said, in my latest for Bleacher Report, I defended why Tony LaRussa picked Matt Cain to start the All Star Game tonight.

You can read the article HERE.

The A's go into the All Star Break with a winning record: 43-43... a Bleacher Report Article

The A's have a .500 record. So do the Red Sox. But even though their records are identical, they don't mean the same thing.

In my latest for Bleacher Report, I write how the Athletics should consider their 43-43 record a winning one.

You can read the entire article HERE.

Still think baseball lacks parity?

People who claim that baseball lacks parity of the other sports are quickly losing any legs to stand on. Take a look at baseball at the All Star Break.

Three American League teams have losing records.
Three. TOTAL. Not three in the AL East.

If your definition of a bad team is one that has lost more than it has won, then only the Twins, Mariners and Royals count as bad teams. (The Twins were division champs as recently as 2010.)

As recently as, oh... last spring, the Nationals and Pirates usually fought for "Who was drafting #1 overall this year?"

This year, they are the two best teams in the National League.

And while there are only three sub .500 teams in the American League, there are more in the National League.

Guess who is below .500?
ALL THREE DIVISION WINNERS FOR 2011!

A year ago, the Phillies, Brewers and Diamondbacks were the tops of their divisions.
This year all three go into the break in the red.

And once the All Star game is over, 24 of 30 teams will be within 10 games of a playoff spot to start the second half.

And as we saw last September, a team in front could collapse and a team could skyrocket out of nowhere to make the post season. The Cardinals took advantage of the Braves misfortune and squeezed another World Series title out of it.

If that isn't parity, I don't know what is.

I've been talking about that since 2 Super Bowls ago...

Padres Should Make Trades, but They Should Keep Huston Street - A Bleacher Report Article

The Padres are probably going to be quite active at the trade deadline, adding to their already strong core of young players.

But in my latest article for Bleacher Report, I argue that they should resist dealing their All Star closer Huston Street. A solid closer might seem like a luxury for a rebuilding team, but looks can be deceiving.

Read the entire article HERE.

Does Pedro Ciriaco know who Pedro Ciriaco is?

Raise your hand if your heard of Pedro Ciriaco before the Red Sox win over the Yankees tonight.
OK, if your hand is up, you are either a member of the Ciriaco family or a damn liar.

But there is something cool about that.
The Red Sox, so bloated with expensive players and feuding veterans, need an anonymous infielder to finally beat the Yankees this year.

They evidently couldn't find a helmet that fit him.

I like this direction for the Red Sox.
Win with players we never heard of!
It beats losing with players we are sick of!

Red Sox vs. Yankees: No Winner, Only Degrees of Losing - A Bleacher Report Article

What a horrible game last night.
Not just as a Red Sox fan, who saw his team lose.
The Yankees didn't have much to feel good about either.

In my latest for Bleacher Report, I broke down one of the ugliest games you'll see in a while.

You can read the article HERE.

Does ANYONE care about the Red Sox/Yankees series?

Remember when Red Sox vs. Yankees felt like a big deal? Actually it did last year when it looked like until the last pitch of the season that they were both playoff teams.

From 1999 to 2009, each game was so memorable. So many remarkable back and forth, walk off dramatic games. The Red Sox won a bunch in the Bronx. The Yankees broke our hearts in Fenway.

Two straight ALCS match ups that went seven games. It was the greatest baseball I ever saw in many ways.

This year?
Not so much.

The Red Sox are slogging through a season where they win a bunch and lose a bunch and seem dysfunctional and frankly aren't really contending.

And look at this team.
Ortiz is still there. So is Beckett.

But Pedroia is hurt. So is Ellsbury. There is no Youkilis, Varitek nor Wakefield. No Papelbon, Schilling nor Manny.

The Yankees are clearly superior and are eight games in front of the Red Sox in the loss column.
Does any Red Sox fan REALLY think that they are going to make up those eight games?

Oh I'll follow the game and I'll root for the Red Sox.

But you know a season is going poorly when the Red Sox face the Yankees just before the All Star Break and I am actually more interested in the Giants and Pirates series in Pittsburgh.

Go Sox.
(Just lower your expectations, fans.)

The Second Best Team in the National League plays in Pittsburgh

We are officially past the half way mark of the season.
Nobody can use the "It's early" line anymore. There are fewer games left to play than they have already played.

So when a team is in first place now, you have to take them seriously.

Well the Pirates are in first place.
And if the standings stay the same for the playoffs, the Pirates would not only be in the playoffs but actually would have home field advantage in the Division Series.

They trail only the Nationals (who stole a game from the Giants today) for the best record in the National League. At this date only the Nationals, Yankees and Rangers are better than the Pirates.

Forget 82 wins and a winning record. The Pirates are on pace to win 90 games at this point.

I'm sure a lot of you went into this year saying "I bet the NLCS will be a Nationals - Pirates showdown."

I'd love for that to happen, if for no other reason than to hear people STILL try to say that it is the same teams in the playoffs every year.

Keep an eye on the Reds game tonight. The Pirates magic number is getting smaller.

Yankees Could Have Already Ended Their Big Spending Ways - A Bleacher Report Article

The Yankees spend money like no other team and virtually every single big free agent lands in the Bronx, right?

Well wait a minute. That may not be as true as it used to be.

In my latest for Bleacher Report, I take a closer look at the Yankees spending and wonder if the gravy train is drying up.

It is a strange world where the Twins, A's and Pirates all made bigger free agent moves than the Yankees most expensive off season signing.

Saying the Yankees free spending days are over might be a reach, but it is worth a discussion.

You can read the entire  article HERE.

Red Sox fans... have you detected a pattern with this team yet?

Earlier this season, I wrote an article for Bleacher Report where I urged the Red Sox to deal Josh Beckett. He was pitching well at the time and I felt that he could get a decent minor leaguer in return. The Red Sox were not contenders, I argued, and they should try to flip some of their veterans for pieces that could help from 2013 on.

People wrote to me saying I was crazy for waving the white flag on the season.

I asked them if they thought the Red Sox were contenders.
They said that they did and consistently pointed to how close they were in the standings and how the team would improve when they get healthy.

Meanwhile the Red Sox have been very consistent all year. And it is the kind of consistency that keeps teams out of the playoffs.

All year they have had two settings: Lose a bunch in a row and look incompetent. Win a bunch of series in a row and look like a pennant contender turning it around.

They start the season 4-10 with the embarrassing Yankee series, then rattle of six straight wins and look like a contender.

Then they went on a 2-9 stretch and looked awful. Then they won five in a row and looked great again. They won five of six in early June to climb over .500. Then lost seven of eight to fall below .500. They went on a five game winning streak in mid June. Now they just got swept by the A's.

It is the morning of July 5th and they are 2 games over .500.

This is not a contender.
This is a streaky team.

This is an 83-85 win team.

Just enjoy the winning streaks when they happen and remove any post season hopes for this team.

Detect these patterns. Don't go too crazy when they win and don't get too upset when they lose.

That is the nature of this team.
Lower your expectations and this season will be pretty fun.

Guess who picked the Dodgers and Pirates?

All the baseball games on July 4th are over. Take a look at the standings and the Dodgers and the Pirates are each all alone on top of their Division.

The Dodgers survived a grotesque shutout streak to regain the Division Lead against San Francisco.

The Pirates have been able to score runs almost at will as they shot past the Reds this afternoon and are on top of the Central.

Who could have seen this coming?

I DID!


Here's my post from March 31 where I explained why I thought the Dodgers were going to win the National League West.


And here is my March 30 entry explaining why I picked the Pirates to win the NL Central.

And all of my picks for the 2012 season.

Usually my picks suck. But I stuck my neck out and lookee here, I just might be right.

(I also picked the Marlins to win the World Series... could still happen.)

Stop Having Heath Bell's Contract Ruin the Marlins Season - a Bleacher Report article

Heath Bell signed a big contract with the Marlins to close games. So far he has stunk at doing it. And if the Marlins want to salvage this season, then maybe they shouldn't have him throw the 9th based on his contract.

In my latest for Bleacher Report, I discuss the Marlins 9th inning crisis.

You can read the article HERE.

ENOUGH with the shaving cream in the face!

OK, we get it. It was hilarious the first 4,392 times we saw it. Someone does something cool to win a game. And in the middle of the interview... you will never guess what happens! SOMEONE comes up fro behind and covers his face in shaving cream.

I still laugh every time I see it.
Oh wait. I don't.

I'm kind of tired of it. It's kind of lazy and frankly it is more surprising when it DOESN'T happen.

And sometimes it can kind of ruin a moment. Johan Santana pitched the first no hitter in Mets history. It was one of the greatest moments to every happen to that franchise ever. And he got a face full of shaving cream. Couldn't there be a bit of dignity for that event?

This isn't about me being a hard ass or not wanting there to be fun in baseball. Baseball IS fun and it is cool when a team has that goofball sense of camaraderie. Hell, my favorite team of all time was the goofy 2004 Red Sox.

And A. J. Burnett supposedly gave the tight Yankee clubhouse some relief with his shaving cream attacks in 2009.

But as someone with a comedy background, I just can't stand watching the same joke over and over again. Even Gallagher smashed things other than watermelons.

Put a funny hat on someone, or have someone get one of those seltzer bottles that spray like in a Three Stooges short.

Or throw an actual pie in his face.

But the shaving cream? Seen it. Try a little harder.

I could throw 2 shutout innings against the Dodgers

I'm not saying I am a good pitcher.
In fact I got clobbered when I pitched in little league (as seen above.)

But seriously. How hard could it be to shut out the Dodgers now?
They've been shut out for 56 of their last 57 innings.

In that time, opposing teams have a 0.31 ERA against them. That's less than 1 run every three games if stretched out.

And they just look desperate at the plate.
I think my 55 mile per hour lob could have them spinning.

This was the best team in baseball a few weeks ago!
Now I am talking trash about them.
And Carlos Lee wants no part of them.

Dodgers... GET YOUR SELVES A BAT!

Hey injured Red Sox... take your time rehabbing

The Red Sox just keep winning. I'm still not convinced they are winning a Division or Wild Card this year, but man it is fun seeing them win.

One refrain I kept hearing from Sox fans was "wait until everyone is healthy."

Well the Red Sox are far from healthy. But when the likes of Daniel Nava, Franklin Morales, Cody Ross and Aaron Cook are kicking this much butt, maybe their injured players should spend more time in the trainers room.

What Red Sox fan would rather hear the dreaded words "Now pitching, John Lackey" instead of giving Aaron Cook another shot. Cook pitched an 81 pitch masterpiece today. I think Clay Buchholz averaged 81 pitches an inning.

THIS Red Sox team is fun and has guys who aren't cashing the big checks and breaking down.

If Carl Crawford comes back, does that send Daniel Nava and his .902 OPS to the bench?
Or maybe Cody Ross and HIS .915 OPS will get cobwebs while Crawford cashes a check.

I don't think so.
Come on Sox. Play the players who are actually winning games and appease the fans. We all know Crawford and Lackey are making a lot of money. Doesn't mean you have to play them!