How Chase Headley reminded me of the Oscar nominations

I know connecting San Diego Padres third baseman Chase Headley to the announcements of the Academy Awards sounds like a tenuous connection. Trust me, it makes sense.

Headley had been rumored to be traded all over the map. The Dodgers and the A's seemed like the most likely target for the hot corner man with power.

The Padres, far from contention this year, decided to hang on to Huston Street and Carlos Quentin for next season, so Headley seemed like the best candidate to help infuse some young blood into the squad.

Plus, third baseman Jedd Gyorko continues to clean up in Triple A Tuscon. With a .341 average, 17 homers and an OPS of .981, he has earned the right to have a spot in the big leagues.

When the flurry of trades took place on the 31st, I was at work and had a hard time keeping track of where everyone landed.

The next day, I was listening to the Padres game on my MLB app on my iPhone. And I heard Chase Headley get a basehit. And I thought "Wait... Headley didn't get traded? How did that happen?"

Which brings me to the Oscar nominations. There are a few times that there was a lock for a nomination that did not come through. I'm not saying these were the most deserving, but going into the nomination period, these seemed like they had all of the momentum.

Barbra Streisand as Best Director for Prince of Tides, Philadelphia as a Best Picture nomination, Ron Howard as Best Director for Apollo 13, Paul Giamatti for Best Actor in Sideways, Dreamgirls as a Best Picture nomination, and of course me, my brother Ted and Sean McPharlin being snubbed for Best Original Screenplay for I'll Believe You.

When they announce the nominations, it is done early in the morning with each major category rattled off very quickly without much time to digest who was not called out.

And in the case of those instances above, it did not occur to me until much later that certain people did NOT get the nomination.

And there would be a moment where I stop and say "Wait a second. Dreamgirls wasn't nominated? I thought that was going to win."

And this the Headley connection.

He wasn't traded. Ron Howard wasn't nominated for Apollo 13.

I could not have predicted either one.



 

The Sully Baseball Official Oscar Picks for 2012

I am taking a break this weekend from my baseball obsession to feed my other addiction:

The Academy Awards.

Now usually, I am super prepared for the Oscars. I've made it a point since the mid 1980s to see all the Best Picture Nominees before the telecast and most of the acting and writing picks as well.

In fact I've seen every Best Picture winner ever and every nominee since 1948.

Until this year.
I haven't been able to get out to the movies at the clip that I would have wanted to this year. And while I've seen 6 of the 9 nominees (which I am betting is more than you've seen!) I am going into this year without seeing either one of the front runners.

Nope, I haven't seen The Artist yet.
Nor have I seen Hugo.

So while I made to the end of that awful Tom Hanks/Sandra Bullock Sept. 11th movie and a feature length movie about the A's winning where they barely mention Mulder, Zito and Hudson, I am woefully unprepared by my own standards.

But that doesn't mean I can't make my predictions! My predictions are based upon who I think will win, not based upon any merit.

So here's my picks, submitted for your approval:

BEST PICTURE: The Artist
BEST DIRECTOR: Michel Hazanavicus, The Artist
BEST ACTOR: George Clooney, The Descendants
BEST ACTRESS: Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Octavia Spencer, The Help
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, The Descendants

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Artist
BEST ART DIRECTION: Hugo
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: The Artist
BEST SOUND MIXING: Hugo
BEST EDITING: The Artist
BEST SOUND EDITING: War Horse
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
BEST MAKE UP: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
BEST MUSIC SCORE: The Artist
BEST SONG: Man or Muppet from The Muppets
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Rango
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: A Separation
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Pina

And of course the categories that NOBODY knows but we bet on them anyway.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM: La Luna
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM: Tuba Atlantic
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Basically "When in doubt, pick The Artist!"

I am going to watch the show and I am unapologetic, I enjoy it.

And I tend to be very bad in predicting winners.
I just hope Billy Beane is in the crowd.

Enjoy the show and enjoy listening to me talk about my Oscar obsession.

It could be Justin Verlander's year

Sometimes during Academy Awards season, a certain actor or director is swept up to front runner status not necessarily because they gave their best work but because they were simply due for an award.

Martin Scorsese's best film was not The Departed, but he hadn't won an Oscar and he was due.

Million Dollar Baby was far from Morgan Freeman's best performance, but he had never won and probably should have won 2 or 3 times before.

Could you even SIT through The Reader? I barely did, but they made up for Kate Winslet's lack of Oscars.

I have a feeling that something similar with Justin Verlander this year and the Cy Young Award race.

He's had 4 terrific seasons in the bigs (and one lousy 2008 season.)
He has led the league in strikeouts before, in wins, in innings pitched and consistently chucks 200 innings.

He has a pair of no hitters in his career and already has a pair of top 5 finishes in the Cy Young voting.

He's never won and frankly he is due. He had another awesome performance today against a tough Arizona team. 8 innings of shutout ball. 14 strikeouts to 1 walk. His ERA is down to 2.38... 1.30 runs below his career ERA going into today's game. He leads the league in strikeouts, innings pitched and victories at this point.

And he is anchoring a Tigers staff that, as of this writing, is tied for first place in the American League central.

The Tigers are roughly 47% of the way through the season and right now Verlander looks like the man to beat in the Cy Young race. Josh Beckett and Jered Weaver have been lights out. C.C. Sabathia is great and Felix Hernandez is coming back to form. And James Shields is quietly having a terrific year.

But when push comes to shove, I think Verlander might win this.

After all, he's due.

Let’s see how I did on my Oscar predictions…

Watching the Oscar nominations this morning, I saw that some of my predictions were spot on. Others… not so much.

Let’s check my work.

BEST PICTURE – 10 for 10. Not bad. Now I have to rent Winter’s Bone.

BEST DIRECTOR – 4 out of 5. I thought Christopher Nolan would be nominated for director after being snubbed for The Dark Knight. They went with Lily Tomlin’s best friend, David O. Russell and The Fighter.

BEST ACTOR – 4 out of 5. Javier Bardem was nominated for Biutiful (sic) instead of Mark Wahlberg. Don’t dispair Mark, you got nominated as a producer for The Fighter.
BEST ACTRESS – 5 for 5. YES! Granted, I’ve only seen Black Swan of the group, but I predicted it alright.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – 4 out of 5. John Hawkes from Winter’s Bone gets to put “Oscar Nominee” on his resume. I thought Andrew Garfield would ride a Social Network wave. I was wrong.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – 4 out of 5. I am stunned Mila Kunis wasn’t nominated for Black Swan. Jacki Weaver got it for Animal Kingdon. For the record I think it is moronic that Hailee Steinfeld is in the “supporting” category. She was the main character of the movie! But I am glad she was nominated. She deserves it.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – 4 out of 5 – No Black Swan! Interesting. Someone explain to me how Mike Leigh, a guy who prides himself on NOT writing a screenplay, just got his FIFTH "Best Screenplay" nomination. I should go to every coffee shop in Los Angeles where writers are slaving over a script and nudge them and say “Just have the actors make up the words.”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – 4 out of 5. I am super glad Toy Story 3 got the love it deserves. No love for Ben Affleck and the screenplay for The Town? It had the hilarious line about Jack Clark ripping off the Red Sox, which made it Oscar worthy in MY book.

So of the so called “Major nominations” I got 87% correct.

My other predictions…
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE – Well, I got all 3 right… except I thought there were going to be 5 nominees. So too bad Despicable Me and Tangled. DOCUMENTARY FEATURE – 1 for 5. WHOOPS! (No Waiting for Superman?) ART DIRECTION – 4 out of 5 CINEMATOGRAPHY – 4 out of 5 COSTUME DESIGN – 3 out of 5 EDITING – 4 out of 5 SOUND – 3 out of 5 SOUND EDITING – 2 out of 3 (Actually 5 nominations. I thought there were 3) VISUAL EFFECTS – 3 out of 5 MUSIC SCORE – 3 out of 5 ORIGINAL SONG – 3 out of 5

So overall my nomination predictions were 75% accurate.
Not bad.

OK, I have a month to see these nominations. I’ve seen 6 of the Best Picture nominations and I have two that I haven’t seen gathering dust as DVDs. There’s no baseball game on tonight, so better get watching them!

It is time for my OTHER obsession… the Oscars.

Yup, I need to take a quick pause from talking baseball to feed my other beast: I am an Oscars addict. Now I promise I won’t turn this blog into Sully: Oscars, but each year I need to make my predictions for the big show.

So here are my picks for the nominations that will be announced tomorrow morning.
Note that these AREN’T the films that I think should necessarily win.
These are the films that I think WILL be nominated.

Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids are Alright
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
Joel and Ethan Coen – True Grit
David Fincher - The Social Network
Tom Hooper - The King’s Speech
Christopher Nolan – Inception

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges – True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
James Franco – 127 Hours
Mark Wahlberg – The Fighter

Best Actress
Annette Bening – The Kids are Alright
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale – The Fighter
Andrew Garfield – The Social Network
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids are Alright
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Mila Kunis – Black Swan
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit

Best Original Screenplay
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids are Alright
The King’s Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
The Town
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

Best Animated Feature
Despicable Me
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Tangled
Toy Story 3


Best Documentary Feature
Client 9
Inside Job
The Tillman Story
Waiting for Superman
Who is Harry Nilsson?

Best Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
True Grit

Best Cinematography
Inception
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
True Grit

Best Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Burlesque
The King’s Speech
True Grit

Best Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
127 Hours
The King’s Speech

Best Sound
Black Swan
Inception
127 Hours
The Social Network
True Grit

Best Sound Effects Editing
Inception
127 Hours
TRON: Legacy

Best Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Inception
The Social Network
TRON: Legacy

Best Music Score
Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Best Original Song
“I See the Light” – Tangled
“If I Rise” – 127 Hours
“Shine” – Waiting for Superman
“We Belong Together” – Toy Story 3
“You Haven’t Seen The Last of Me Yet” - Burlesque



I am predicting that the Academy will not nominate David O. Russell… perhaps the clash with Lily Tomlin on Youtube would still be on their minds. And I think that the DVD release of Winter’s Bone will make it the surprise Best Picture nomination.

And while The Town will get shutout of the big prize, Ben Affleck will get another writing nomination.

And I am also predicting some serious distribution of wealth amongst the nominations.
I see both The King’s Speech and True Grit getting double digit nominations with 10.

Black Swan, Inception and The Social Network should all get 9 nominations.

That’s 5 films with a pile of nominations.
And with 8 nominations for 127 Hours and 7 for The Fighter the possibility of another upset is strong. (Remember how The Hurt Locker upset the blockbuster Avatar last year?)

Alrighty. Get some sleep. Tomorrow is nomination day and always a big day in my insane calendar.

I still think 20 wins is cool

Jon Lester goes for win #20 tonight and I really hope he gets it.
Of course I want ANY Red Sox pitcher to win and with the Sox still having a shot at 90 wins, I want them win as often as they can now.

But 20 for Jon Lester will be sweet.

I know we're not supposed to care about win totals anymore.
I had someone say they are a meaningless stat.

And while I wouldn't go as far as meaningless (Hello! You play to win the Game!) wins and losses on the record can be misleading.

As I wrote in my Bert Blyleven post, the fact that he didn't get the win in 13 additional games is keeping him out of the Hall of Fame is nothing short of insanity.

And in one of my MANY posts plugging Felix Hernandez for the Cy Young, I pointed out that if the only stat that CC has over King Felix is wins, then that is not enough to give him the Cy Young.

So I understand that wins are not the end all and be all of a pitcher's worth.

But I still think 20 wins is cool.
It's a nice shorthand for an ace caliber pitcher.

"He's a 20 game winner" still carries a little weight. If you win enough to take your team 1/5 of the way to 100 wins yourself, it must feel good for a pitcher.

I can't imagine a pitcher being THAT lucky that they would get twenty wins and have it all be good fortune.

OK, maybe Rick Helling's 20 win season in 1998 for the Rangers despite an ERA of 4.41 was a bit lucky.

But hey, I once heard that when Napoleon was considering new generals, one of the questions he would ask is "Is he lucky?"

So perhaps a healthy amount of luck is cool.

Besides, I'd rather be a Mr. Magoo winning games by pure luck than a hard luck pitcher losing games despite pitching well.


It also is aesthetically pleasing.

Seeing 20 wins on the back of a baseball card just looks cool. I don't care how big a Sabrmatrician you are... it is like the spoiler on the back of the car. It may not mean much but it looks bad ass.

It's a nice title to have.
It's kind of like "Academy Award Winning Director" sounds cool in front of a director's name.

Did the Oscar make Martin Scorsese or the Coen Brothers better directors?

Of course not... they were geniuses long before they got the Golden Guys.

But knowing they won Oscars and can be called "Academy Award Winning Directors" is neat, if overdue.



And with Lester... well it could make his Cy Young case more compelling (or take away from Sabathia's case and maybe split the "You need the big win total" crowd and give Felix a real chance.)

It would be the latest peak that he scaled since cancer (that along with winning the World Series clincher in 2007 and throwing a no hitter in 2008.)

It would give the Red Sox a nice moment to build upon after a disappointing season.

And oh yeah, help create the winning foundation of the 2011 team.

It's good to start with an ace... and what builds more confidence in an ace than knowing they won a pile of games?

Maybe being a 20 game winner.

It may not mean as much as it used to... but it is still cool.

I promise... this will be my last Oscar post until next year

Well another Oscar season has come and gone and my obsession will soon turn 100% back to baseball...

But I still have a few thoughts about the broadcast that I unabashedly love to watch each year.


Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin did a nice job as hosts...

Steve's line "This show is so long that Avatar now takes place in the past" was terrific.

But no matter how good they were, I'm still not seeing It's Complicated.



Nominees... rehearse a speech!

Seriously, there is no excuse for stammering. You have had a month between the nominations announcement and the awards show.

Come up with a 30 second speech.

And don't give me any crap that "I totally didn't expect this, so I didn't prepare anything." The nanosecond you got nominated, you started holding your toothbrush as if it was an Oscar.

Prepare something and time it for 30 seconds. Costume designer Sandy Powell and composer Michael Giacchino won, said concise heart felt speeches and got off the stage. It's not that hard. Plus if you can't think of a speech, go to any coffee shop in Los Angeles and say "Hey! Unemployed writers. Who wants to help me write a clever speech for the Oscars?"


What the hell was up with the Best Documentary Short acceptance speech?

OK, most of you were probably going into the kitchen to get a Mr. Pibb or something during Documentary Short, but those of us who saw this award so a deliciously awkward acceptance speech.

Music by Prudence won the award and producer/director Roger Ross Williams started giving his speech. His fellow producer Elinor Beckett came onto the stage while he was in mid speech and boxed him out a la Kevin McHale in the 1986 Finals. I am not sure what the behind the scenes tension was on this film, but it is clear that nobody puts Elinor in the corner. Needless to say, the music played them off.


Colin Farrell had a lot of nerve bringing up S.W.A.T. at the Oscars!
When Farrell was giving his tribute to Jeremy Renner during the Best Actor nominations, he brought up their working together on SWAT!

Did you SEE SWAT? I did... it blows. And it is a lousy TV show adaptation of a movie.

Then again, it wasn't any worse than The Reader.

We now live in a world with Academy Award winner Fisher Stevens!

I'm not saying he doesn't deserve the award... I am just saying that looks odd to see in type.








Has Barbra Streisand left the stage yet?

Babs has two Oscars but I got the feeling she wanted to stay on stage with Kathryn Bigelow as long as possible. She knows the caption will read "first ever woman to win the Oscar for Best Director"... and she wanted in on that picture.

A note to Ms. Streisand: The Prince of Tides and Yentl weren't that good!





George Clooney is the new Jack Nicholson

He's the perpetual bachelor Oscar winner and super cool movie star...
and now he is the go to guy to cut to during the Oscar telecast.

Remember how they would always cut to Jack to see if a joke was funny or a tribute was moving?

Now (and for the next few decades) they will cut to George.



The John Hughes tribute was nice... if not for me

I was 13 when The Breakfast Club came out... and 14 when Pretty in Pink and Ferris Bueller's Day Off came out. In other words, I am the exact right age to have the movies of John Hughes mean everything to me as an awkward teenager. Here's the thing: they didn't.

I never liked The Breakfast Club, thought Ferris Bueller was OK but not earth shattering and I have yet to see Sixteen Candles. I'm not saying they are bad... but I grew up on the Red Sox, Batman comics, Godzilla and movies like Star Wars, Raiders, Ghostbusters, Close Encounters, Wrath of Khan and Back to the Future. When I went to the movies, I didn't want to see awkward teenagers whining about their life. I saw enough of that in Junior High! I wanted to ESCAPE from that!


I was rooting for Meryl Streep to win, but Sandra Bullock's speech won me over

I love that Meryl Streep has dropped the super serious "different accent every year" pattern to her career and instead is letting her quirky character actress abilities run rampant. She made fluffy films like Devil Wears Prada and Julie and Julia infectious and her performance as the nun in last year's Doubt could be her most underrated performance.

But Sandra Bullock was cool, sincere, funny and downright lovable in her acceptance speech... and was cool enough to pick up her Razzie in person. Nothing wrong with that.



I haven't seen Crazy Heart, but Jeff Bridges deserves that Oscar

He should have won for The Fisher King. Or maybe Fearless. Or maybe Last Picture Show... or The Contender...
Or maybe even Big Lebowski, Tucker or TRON!

All I know it was long overdue.




While we are handing out Oscars to people who should have won one before... how's about some love for Sigourney Weaver?

Nope, she's never won one.

It doesn't seem right does it?

Maybe she should play a down on her luck country singer.

(It worked for Robert DuVall and Jeff Bridges!)


I was stunned The Hurt Locker won

I really thought Avatar was going to win right up until the end. (Hey, wasn't Tom Hanks supposed to read all the nominees?)

So James Cameron's hot ex wife upset the King of the World. And now all Cameron has as a consolation prize is a $700 million gross, the two biggest grossing movies of all time and 3 Oscars already on his mantle. How can he sleep at night?

OK, enough... back to baseball.

My Oscar picks and Why I think 10 Best Picture Nominees is a Good Thing

Forgive me, Sully Baseball fans... I need to do another Oscar post.

I just watched The Blind Side. It was a sweet, flawed, well intentioned movie that should have been a made for TV movie, but is harmless. Seeing that film means I have seen all 10 Best Picture nominees before the ceremony this weekend... thus keeping my insane Oscar obsession alive.

Of course they have changed the number of Best Picture nominees from 5 to 10 this year, partly as a response to popular films like The Dark Knight and WALL-E being snubbed last year.

And it seems like one of the popular things to do in cyberspace is write about what a lousy idea 10 nominees is.

I disagree. Not to be a contrarian, but I think 10 Best Picture nominations has turned out to be a fantastic idea.

This isn't like expanding the baseball playoffs or the NCAA tournament to allow lesser teams a shot to win it all. The Oscars are subjective and the widened Best Picture race has allowed for nominees that reflect the different tastes of viewers and have a better chance to have a film to root for.

Do you like big mongo blockbusters?
Well then you have Avatar and Up to root for.

Do you like critically acclaimed films that may have eluded blockbuster status?
Then cheer on The Hurt Locker.

Are you turned on by showcases for acclaimed directors?
The Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds and the Coen Brothers' A Serious Man are for you.

Do you like big movie stars carrying a film?
Then I bet you loved George Clooney in Up in the Air or Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side.

Do you like movies where new comers steal the film?
I suspect you loved An Education or Precious (which was evidently based on the Novel Push by Sapphire.)

How about if you love films revolving around shrimp looking creatures trapped in South Africa?

It's safe to say that District 9 is probably the best film revolving around shrimp looking creatures trapped in South Africa.

I think the change is a great one... and still doesn't prevent controversy. (My favorite film of 2009 was the unnominated In the Loop... but who is keeping track?)

The Oscar show is this weekend and it is one of the highlights of my year... and I think I am the only person on the planet who never gets bored by the show and doesn't mind how long it is.

And this year will be interesting with an ex husband and wife tandem competing for the big prize... and I think that neither James Cameron nor Kathryn Bigelow are walking away empty handed.

I think The Hurt Locker is going to win Director and Screenplay but Avatar will win picture... similar to how Traffic won Director and Screenplay in 2001 but Gladiator won the big Kahuna.

Jeff Bridges (who should have won for The Fisher King... a film where he wasn't even nominated for) is getting his long overdue Oscar. And I am picking with my gut when I say Meryl Streep will upset Sandra Bullock.

For what it is worth, here are my picks:

BEST PICTURE - Avatar
BEST DIRECTOR - Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
BEST ACTOR - Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
BEST ACTRESS - Meryl Streep - Julie and Julia
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Mo'Nique - Precious
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - The Hurt Locker (Mark Boal)
BEST SCREENPLAY ADAPTATION - Up in the Air (Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE - Up
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM - The White Ribbon
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY - The Hurt Locker
BEST EDITING - The Hurt Locker
BEST ART DIRECTION - Nine
BEST COSTUME DESIGN - Nine
BEST MAKE UP - Star Trek
BEST MUSIC SCORE - Avatar
BEST SONG - "The Weary Kind" Crazy Heart
BEST SOUND MIXING - The Hurt Locker
BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING - Avatar
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE - Food Inc
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT - China's Unnatural Disaster
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT - Kavi
BEST ANIMATED SHORT - French Roast
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS - Avatar

OSCAR WINNING DIRECTORS WHO PRODUCED BEST PICTURE NOMINEES THEY DIDN'T DIRECT... An Insane Paul Sullivan Post

I can write crazy movie lists too!!!

Folks you have to bear with me… I obsess about the Academy Awards almost as much as I talk about baseball… I’ll get back to breaking down teams in the build up for Spring Training soon enough… but let me get some of my Oscar needs out.

I am sure Peter Jackson thought he was going to get an Academy Award nomination this year when he made The Lovely Bones and had it released in time for the Oscar push.

Well The Lovely Bones may have had a disappointing show in the nominations, but Peter Jackson did indeed get a nomination.

He produced the wonderful Best Picture nominee District 9, directed by Neill Blomkamp.

And that got me thinking… how many times has a filmmaker who won the Oscar for Best Director later get nominated for producing a Best Picture nominee.

And why have an idle thought like that when you can actually try to figure it out.

I have found six other instances…

Warren Beatty

Won the Best Director Oscar for Reds.

Nominated for Best Picture for Bugsy, Directed by Barry Levinson.




James L. Brooks

Won the Best Director Oscar for Terms of Endearment.

Nominated for Best Picture for Jerry Maguire, Directed by Cameron Crowe.






Mike Nichols

Won the Best Director Oscar for The Graduate.

Nominated for Best Picture for Remains of the Day, Directed by James Ivory






Anthony Minghella

Won the Best Director Oscar for The English Patient.

Nominated for Best Picture for The Reader, Directed by Stephen Daldry









Sydney Pollack

Won the Best Director Oscar for Out of Africa.

Nominated for Best Picture for Michael Clayton, Directed by Tony Gilroy
and The Reader, Directed by Stephen Daldry







Steven Spielberg

Won the Best Director Oscar for Schindler’s List
and Saving Private Ryan.

Nominated for Best Picture for Letters From Iwo Jima, Directed by Clint Eastwood




Now I hesitated about putting Francis Ford Coppola on the list and decided I would be a hard ass about it…Coppola produced the Best Picture nominee American Graffiti for George Lucas after he had made The Godfather.

But while Coppola had won the Oscar for The Godfather and the film won Best Picture, Coppola did not win the Best Director Oscar… he won that AFTER American Graffiti for The Godfather Part II.

Hey, I am a stickler for rules in my baseball lists. (Roberto Clemente is NOT in the Home Grown Pirates team because I stick to the rules.)

So why did I write this?
Well I am sure there must be a lunatic out there who wants to know this strange fact.

YOU ARE WELCOME

How did I do in my Oscar Predictions?

My predictions weren’t bad… yet a few of my predictions came up short.

Yeah Avatar, The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air were big nominees. Wow. I am a seer.

Of the 45 major nominees, I got 31 ½ right.
31 ½?

Yeah… I predicted Stanley Tucci would be nominated for the easier to digest (literally) Julie and Julia rather than for his creepy role in The Lovely Bones.

Kind of like when they nominated Dennis Hopper for Hoosiers instead of Blue Velvet.

Also I was pleasantly surprised to see Up get a Best Picture nomination.

So 31 ½ out of 45 major nominees means I got 70% of them right.

Not too shabby.

The technical categories... not so good.
22 out of 41?
53%.

Yikes.

I should stick to predicting baseball... like when I picked the A's and the Reds last year.

We interrupt one of my compulsions for another...

I am obsessed with the Oscars. Every year it rivals my love for baseball...

And no I don't get bored by the ceremony.
No I don't think it should be abolished.

I love it every year.

Often I don't agree with the results, but that's not the point. It is one of my big nights of TV watching in the year and I ALWAYS see the big nominees.

So tomorrow morning at some ungodly hour in the morning, the Oscar nominations will be announced. And almost as nuts as the early hour will be the fact that for the first time since the 1944 ceremony (when Casablanca was award the Oscar for Best Picture of 1943) there will be 10 nominations for Best Picture.

This is partly to kick start other smaller movies box office appeal... and partly to ensure that bigger grossing fare gets a big nomination, making the elitist Oscars seem less elitist.

Of course the big winner is probably going to be Avatar, which needs a boost in the box office the way the Yankees need to add payroll.

But before the new batch of Oscar nominated films are announced, I am going to make my predictions for the nominees.

These are the films I think WILL, not the ones I think SHOULD be nominated.

Let's list...

BEST PICTURE

Avatar
The Blind Side
Crazy Heart
District 9
(500) Days of Summer
Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Single Man
Up in the Air

BEST DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Neill Blomhamp - District 9
James Cameron - Avatar
Lee Daniels - Precious
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterns

BEST ACTOR

Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Robert Downey Jr. - Sherlock Holmes
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker

BEST ACTRESS

Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Gabourney Sidibe - Precious
Meryl Streep - Julie and Julia

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Anthony Mackie - The Hurt Locker
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Stanley Tucci - Julie and Julia
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Diane Kruger - Inglourious Basterds
Melanie Laurent - Inglourious Basterds
Mo'Nique - Precious

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Avatar
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Up

BEST SCREENPLAY ADAPTATION
Crazy Heart
An Education

Precious

A Single Man
Up in the Air

And yes because I am insane I will list out the other nominees as well.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Ponyo, Up

BEST ART DIRECTION
Avatar, District 9, Inglourious Basterds, The Lovely Bones, Nine

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The Lovely Bones, Nine, Up in the Air

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
An Education, Inglourious Basterds, Nine, The Young Victoria, Where the Wild Things Are

BEST EDITING
Avatar, (500) Days of Summer, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Up in the Air

BEST MAKE UP
Avatar, District 9, The Road, Star Trek, Where the Wild Things Are

BEST MUSIC SCORE
Avatar, The Informant!, Sherlock Holmes, Up, Where the Wild Things Are

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Avatar, Brothers, Crazy Heart, Nine, Where the Wild Things Are

BEST SOUND
Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Nine, Public Enemies, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Star Trek, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, Up

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar, District 9, Star Trek, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, 2012


I don't know about Documentary short and feature and live action and animated short... and neither do you.

I have Avatar leading the pack with 11 nominations.
I predict that PIXAR will once again be snubbed a Best Picture nomination, this time for Up. But they'll be the odds on favorite to pick up a statue for Animated Feature.

Clint Eastwood's Invictus will be shut out totally.
Star Trek will be shut out of the major awards.

And yes, I predict Kevin O'Connell will get his 21 nomination for Best Sound. He's never won.
And seeing he will be nominated for Public Enemies and not Avatar or The Hurt Locker... he's kinda screwed.

Let's compare these predictions with the actual nominees tomorrow morning and see how I did.


And take a look at my Oscar rants from 2005 while we are at it.

There used to be an order to the Universe

With the Oscars right around the corner, I am finding myself cramming for the big show.

I still haven't seen Benjamin Button but I will before the ceremony.

But I have a problem with the Oscars being scheduled where they are now... in February.
They used to be in late March, early April.

And thus there was a perfect order in the Universe for everything I obsess over.

Follow me.

The new year begins in January and most of the Oscar nominees and hopefuls are released around Christmas time.
I would spend January seeing most of the obvious Oscar hopefuls.

In February the nominations would come out and I would spend February and March seeing the other nominees.

Then the show would be on in late March, early April.

A week or so after the Oscars end, the baseball season would start.
And then I'd go into the season obsessing until the end of October.

Then it would be Christmas time where I would try to get the best gifts without breaking the bank...
And during Christmas the best Oscar contenders would be released.

Lather.
Rinse.
Repeat.

Well now with the Oscars a month earlier, I have less time to see the movies! And now that I'm a dad, I need MORE time!

And with the ceremony over before March, I'll have more than a month before the season starts.
It's screwing up my equilibrium.

I'm not joking. My obsessions can't take a month off!
What am I supposed to do in March?
READ???