Sunday, February 27, 2011
Sully’s Oscar Predictions
I could very easily write a second blog called “Sully Oscars” but I’m spending a wee too much time writing THIS blog to do a second one.
But I do want my predictions in writing and out there for all my readers to see.
I like the 10 picture nomination change. It gives the Oscars a better cross section of the movies of the year.
This is an interesting Oscar year. A lot of years you have heard people whining that there aren’t enough mainstream hits being nominated (blame the studios for not making enough Oscar worthy films.) But this year with films like Black Swan, The Fighter, True Grit and The King’s Speech, you see a lot of Oscar bait have become big money makers even before the Awards are handed out.
Mix them up with some mainstream hits like Inception and Toy Story 3 and indie fare like The Kids are Alright and Winter’s Bone and you have a pretty interesting line up.
(And of course there is the obligatory “Man who cuts his damn arm off” movie in 127 Hours.)
All that being said, Toy Story 3 is still the best movie of the year… but who is counting?
Here are my predictions.
These are not the films I think SHOULD win but what I predict WILL win.
Let’s see how I do:
BEST PICTURE - The King's Speech
BEST DIRECTOR - Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
BEST ACTOR - Colin Firth - The King's Speech
BEST ACTRESS - Natalie Portman - Black Swan
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Christian Bale - The Fighter
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - David Seidler - The King's Speech
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - Aaron Sorkin - The Social Network
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE - Toy Story 3
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM - Biutiful
BEST ART DIRECTION - The King's Speech
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY - True Grit
BEST COSTUME DESIGN - The King's Speech
BEST EDITING - The Social Network
BEST MAKE UP - The Wolfman
BEST MUSIC SCORE - The Social Network
BEST ORIGINAL SONG - "We Belong Together" - Toy Story 3
BEST SOUND - Inception
BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING - Inception
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS - Inception
And yup, I make the Documentary and the Short Film predictions as well.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE - Inside Job
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT - Killing in the Name
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM - The Gruffalo
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM - Wish 143
I know a lot of people think the awards will be split between The Social Network and The King's Speech, but I think the praise for The Social Network peaked. And I think The King's Speech will rampage for 7 Oscars and even have the upsets in the Director and Supporting Actress category. (Helena Bonham Carter has been an incredibly respected actress for a long time without a golden boy on her mantle. I think she'll get one over Melissa Leo, who was awesome in The Fighter.)
And I think the brilliant Roger Deakins will win Best Cinematography.
You may not notice that award or know his name... but he was responsible for the photography in The Shawshank Redemption, Kundun, A Beautiful Mind and Revolutionary Road... all amazingly well shot movies.
And oh yeah, he has shot every Coen Brothers film since Barton Fink.
That would include Fargo, The Big Lebowski, O Brother Where Art Thou?, The Man Who Wasn't There, No Country for Old Men and this year's True Grit.
You are hard pressed to find a better body of work than that!
Either way, I am going to enjoy the Oscars. I always do.
And as I do every year, enjoy my AMC Oscar segments.