BIGGEST POST SEASON SERIES UPSETS OF WILD CARD ERA

I admit, it doesn't look good for the Giants.

I am rooting for them to win the National League Pennant and any team that has Tim Lincecum pitching twice in a series can't be counted COMPLETELY out.

But it will be a longshot.

There is NOTHING the Phillies can't do now and their lineup is a little more fearsome than the Braves.

A safe bet would be the Phillies winning in 5 games.

But every once in a while there is a playoff match up that looks like a total mismatch (even worse than this Phillies/Giants NLCS) that turns out to raise a middle finger to all of the predictions.

Obviously there are some great historical upsets... like the 1926 Cardinals, the 1954 Giants, the 1969 Mets and 1988 L. A. Dodgers come to mind.

But let's look just at the Wild Card era (1995 to present) and see which series looked like no brainers and it turned out the experts had no brain.

BIGGEST POST SEASON UPSETS OF WILD CARD ERA


1997 ALCS
INDIANS defeat ORIOLES

The Orioles led wire to wire and won 98 games. The Indians won only 86 games and barely squeaked past the Yankees in the Division Series.

IT LOOKED BAD WHEN:
The Orioles shut out the Indians in Game 1 and had a 2 run lead in the 8th inning of Game 2.

THINGS TURNED AROUND WHEN:
Marquis Grissom hit a 3 run shot off of Armando Benitez in Game 2. Then the Indians won in 12 for Game 3 and finished Game 4 with a walk off win.

THE DAGGER
The Indians overcame a brilliant Mike Mussina outing in Game 6 to win in 11 innings and stunned Baltimore.

1997 NLCS
MARLINS defeat BRAVES

The Braves had won 4 of the last 5 pennants. With a 101 win season, a 5th pennant in 6 years looked all but assured. The Marlins won 92 games and the wild card, but they were playing the varsity team and looked over matched.

IT LOOKED BAD WHEN:
The Marlins won a pair early but the Braves tied the series when Denny Neagle threw a complete game shutout in Game 4. With Maddux and Glavine looming in Games 5 and 6, it looked bleak for Florida.

THINGS TURNED AROUND WHEN:
The late Eric Gregg called any pitch that Livan Hernandez threw a strike as long as it didn't hit the ground. He struck out 15, giving the Marlins the lead.

THE DAGGER
Tom Glavine imploded in the first inning of Game 6, letting the first four batters read base and having them all score before the Braves even came to bat. It would be all Kevin Brown would need to clinch the pennant.

2002 American League Division Series
ANGELS defeat YANKEES

The Yankees were in full dynasty mode. The Angels had never won a post season series and looked like a bunch of inexperienced kids heading into Yankee Stadium. No doubt this would be a forgettable series much like the Yankees manhandling the Rangers all of those years.

IT LOOKED BAD WHEN:
The Yankees rallied to win game 1 in the 8th and took a lead late into Game 2. It was going to be a sweep a la the Yankees/Texas series of the past.

THINGS TURNED AROUND WHEN:
Garret Anderson and Troy Glaus hit back to back 8th inning homers off of El Duque to take the lead in Game 2. Then in Game 3, the Yankees blow an early 6-1 lead and the Angels break the tie with a Tim Salmon home run in the 8th.

THE DAGGER
David Wells melts down in the 5th inning of Game 4 as the Angels score 8 times and go on to win their first ever playoff series.

2002 American League Division Series
TWINS defeat A'S

Thanks to a 20 game winning streak, an MVP season from Miguel Tejada, a Cy Young season from Barry Zito and 103 wins, the A's looked poised to stampede into the ALCS. The Twins, who were rumored to be contracted just the year before, were just happy to be there.

IT LOOKED BAD WHEN:
A series of Twins blunders gave the A's a 5-1 lead in Game 1, making it clear that this series was Men versus Boys. Later, the A's were up 2-1 with Hudson and Mulder ready for games 4 and 5.

THINGS TURNED AROUND WHEN:
The Twins came back to win that Game 1 and scored 11 unanswered runs in Game 4.

THE DAGGER
A. J. Pierzynski's homer and David Ortiz's double broke open a tense Game 5 in the 9th. The Twins would need every run as Mark Ellis homered to bring the A's to within 1 but Ray Durham, the potential series winning run, popped up to give the upstart Twins a most unlikely series win.

2006 American League Division Series
TIGERS defeat YANKEES

The Tigers slumped badly down the stretch and went from a lock for the Division title, home field in the Division Series and playing the A's to claiming the Wild Card and going to New York to face a stacked and eager to wipe away 2004 from their memories Yankee team. They were no match.

IT LOOKED BAD WHEN:
The Yankees torched Nate Robertson for 5 runs in the third and cruised to an 8-4 Game 1 win. Then Johnny Damon hit a three run shot in Game 2 and it looked like the sweep was on.

THINGS TURNED AROUND WHEN:
Carlos Guillen hit a game tying homer off of Mike Mussina but Curtis Granderson drove the Yankees crazy. He got a run scoring sacrifice fly in Game 2 and gave the Tigers the lead with an RBI triple. In Game 3, former Yankee Kenny Rogers out pitched Randy Johnson in what turned out to be the Big Unit's final game for New York.

THE DAGGER
Joe Torre dropped the slumping Alex Rodriguez to 8th in the fourth game and gave the starting assignment to Jaret Wright. He was bombed and the Tigers finished the Yankees in 4.

2006 NLCS

CARDINALS defeat METS

With the Yankees eliminated in the Division Series, the Mets looked poised to capture the city's baseball heart. Neither American League team (the Tigers nor the A's) looked dominating and all they had to do for the pennant was beat an injured and underachieving Cardinals team who won only 83 games.

IT LOOKED BAD WHEN:
The Mets shut out the Cardinals in Game 1, scored 3 in the first of Game 2 and were tied going into the 9th of Game 2. The Mets were clearly in control.

THINGS TURNED AROUND WHEN:
So Taguchi hit a go ahead 9th inning homer off of Billy Wagner to give the Cardinals a Game 2 win. Then, behind Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver, took a 3-2 series lead back to Shea.

THE DAGGER
The Mets forced a Game 7 which was an all time classic. Endy Chavez preserved a tie with a mindboggling catch that turned a go ahead homer into an inning ending double play. Yadier Molina homered in the 9th to give St. Louis the win and rookie Adam Wainwright got Carlos Beltran to strikeout looking with the bases loaded in the 9th to win the pennant. The Mets have never recovered.



Interestingly, there are 6 upsets but only 3 different years. They've come in pairs.

Are the Giants as unlikely to win as the 2006 Cardinals or Tigers?
Probably not.

So there is hope.

Maybe one of the Giants pitchers will get Ryan Howard looking to end the series!

Oh come on! Let Livan finish the game!

Hey Nationals Manager Jim Riggleman, I've got a bone to pick with you.
Livan Hernandez was pitching tonight and also hitting quite a bit.

It was a game against Atlanta so it has playoff ramifications for both the Wild Card and the NL East... just not for the Nationals.

The Nats don't have a lot to play for this year anymore. They are trying to avoid 90 losses and probably will reach that total anyway.

But don't blame Livan Hernandez. He's had a nice year (even if the win loss record isn't sterling) and tonight got an RBI double and a homer and threw 8 shutout innings for the win.

So why didn't you have him throw the 9th, Riggleman?
Seriously, was getting an inning of work for Sean Burnett so important that you couldn't let Hernandez get his third complete game of the year?

Don't you see how awesome the symmetry of that would be?
Livan Hernandez hits an RBI double, a homer and throws a complete game shutout. That is total domination of the opponent.

Instead it is merely a win.
Crazy managers don't know to humiliate the opponent when they have the chance.

And he shall be Livan... And he shall be a good man

Livan Hernandez has a 1.04 ERA this year.
It's the same guy who pitched the Marlins to a World Series title when Bill Clinton was in office.

And today he shut down the Marlins (without the help of the late Eric Gregg's strikezone.)

This is allowing the Nationals to keep Stephen Strasburg in Syracuse. I hope the Nats give him a bonus for all the money they are saving.

THE CY YOUNG DOZEN

I know I have written about the NL Cy Young race a bit, but I truly find it to be fascinating. Yeah, it is early, but I don’t recall the last time I have seen this many legit candidates all get out of the gate so quickly. And as someone who loves dominating stud pitchers, this year in the NL seems to be a bumper crop!

Nobody in the AL is dominating like the top NL pitchers, and the usual suspects (Verlander, Sabathia, Lester, Beckett, Hernadnez, Greinke) aren’t putting up numbers the way that the NL’s top 12 are.

2006 wasn’t that long ago that the National League honored Brandon Webb with the Cy Young award for his solid but not exactly eye popping season.

This year? I doubt if Webb had the same season in 2010 that he would crack the top 5 when all is said and done.

I’ve counted 12 pitchers who are either former Cy Young winners off to solid starts, true aces who are dominating and a few guys whose careers looked over by the end of last year who are coming out blazing.

And this list of 12 doesn’t even include former Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter, nor dark horse candidate Ricky NolascoBoth have shown moments of brilliance, as has reliever Matt Capps. But this top 12 is a hard party to crack.


Let’s list them…


Tim Lincecum

I truly believe if he can deliver a World Series title to San Francisco he will be the third biggest star in San Francisco sports history. He seems hellbent to make it 3 Cy Young Awards before his 27th birthday. He would have win #5 this afternoon if Brian Wilson could have held onto the 9th inning lead. Yet he still has a 1.27 ERA and leads the league in strikeouts. I guess that whole pot thing really slowed him down.


Ubaldo Jimenez

He is the first pitcher since Jack Morris in 1984 to start the season 5-0 with a no hitter. He is second in the league in innings pitched and has held opponents to a 0.79 ERA and a .186 average against. Oh yeah, he’s doing all of that in COLORADO!


Roy Halladay

Even with a loss the other day, Halladay is throwing like he wants Cy Young #2. Nobody has pitched more innings in the NL. He has 2 complete games and a shutout and his ERA is 1.80. And 5 of his 8 earned runs came in one start. I think it is safe to say it was a good pick up for Philadelphia.


Adam Wainwright

He has the second lowest WHIP in the league and been an innings eater with a pair of complete games. He also has a tiny 1.69 ERA and a .187 batting average against to go with his 3 wins.



Johan Santana

Santana had one truly lousy game against the Washington Nationals in early April where he let up 5 runs, 4 on a grand slam by Josh Willingham. He has let up a grand total of 3 other earned runs all season. He has a 3-1 record and even with the rocky start against Washington, has a more than respectable 2.08 ERA and has not let up more than 1 run in 4 of his 5 starts.

Mike Pelfrey

With all of these great performances out of the gate, do you know who LEADS the NL in ERA? That would by Pelfry, whose ERA is impressive (and snicker worthy) at 0.69. Throw in his 4-0 record and coming out of the bullpen to save the Mets 20 inning marathon and he deserves at least entry to the dance.



Dan Haren

Who is second in the league for strikeouts behind Lincecum? Surprise! It’s Haren who has 38 in 34 innings of work. His ERA is a mediocre 4.50 but he’s been winning games (3-1 record), been eating up innings (third in IP behind Jimenez and Halladay) and has only 8 walks in 5 starts.


Josh Johnson

The Marlins well paid ace got out of the gate slowly but has been showing his ace stuff lately, especially after a complete game 3 hitter with 12 strikeouts and one walk against the Padres on April 26th. He is now third in the league in strikeouts.



Barry Zito

Remember when Barry Zito was on everyone’s short list for worst free agent contracts? Well now he is off to a 3-0 start and is averaging nearly 7 innings a start while posting a 1.32 ERA. Oh, by the way… his .161 batting average against is the lowest in the National League! Not bad for a crummy contract.


Livan Hernandez

Yes. It’s the same Livan Hernandez. An after thought starting pitcher on a potentially god awful Nationals team, the beneficiary of the Late Eric Gregg’s strike zone has won 3 of his first 4 decisions including a complete game shutout. His 0.87 ERA and .176 Batting Average Against are both third best in the league and his WHIP is 4th best. Will he keep that up? Who am I to say?


Brad Penny

The same Brad Penny who was run out of Boston on a rail is 3-0 in St. Louis this year. His 0.94 ERA is 4th best in the league. He has gone at least 7 innings in all 4 of his starts and has yet to let up more than 2 runs in any of them.

Another headcase solved by Dave Duncan!


Carlos Silva

One team’s garbage is another team’s treasure. Dumped into Chicago from Seattle in exchange for lunatic Milton Bradley, the Cubs may have stolen a winner…or least rejuvenated a talented pitcher with a fresh start. In 4 starts and 26 innings, Silva has the lowest WHIP in the league, plus a tiny 1.73 ERA and the fourth lowest Batting Average Against in the NL. Throw in a 2-0 record and a 5-1 strikeout to walk ratio and the Cubs may have more than coffee grounds from Seattle. Meanwhile Bradley is flopping as a .204 hitter flipping off fans with the Mariners.


So it will be interesting to see how many of these dozen remain Cy Young contenders month to month... I am guessing pitchers like Santana and Johnson will see their numbers improve and the Pennys and the Silvas would come back to Earth.

But who knows? I guess YOU picked Zack Greinke to win the Cy Young last year!

Livan Hernandez has a 0.00 ERA

Did you know that?

He's 2-0 with no earned runs. You knew that?

Then I am guessing you ARE Livan Hernandez.

The man whose whole reputation as a big game pitchers is the resuly of Eric Gregg's insane strike zone in the 1997 NLCS is still cashing paychecks.

His main job is eat up innings and allow Stephen Strasburg to develop and save the Nationals some money.

He has been eating innings and by the look of him some of the post game buffet as well.

I am NOT putting him with the Cy Young contenders yet...
Yet...

But one thing I DO know:
My dad is still holding a grudge against him for losing Game 7 of the 2002 World Series for the Giants.

Gee Whiz, Mets

Nice four game losing streak. Think this will come back to haunt them?

Gee I wonder if this patchwork rotation will hold up until... May?

One way to avoid falling apart in September is to get out to a decent start... and right now the only hope the Mets are giving are to Marlins fans!

And nice to see Omar Minaya moving away from acquiring old broken down players. Livan Hernandez?

What, Gaylord Perry wasn't available?

Maybe someone will tell me how Omar Minaya still has a job. It didn't make sense to me last year and this year it seems like he has assembled yet another team with lots of parts that don't fit!

I wonder if Jerry Manuel will take the fall for this team if they don't pull it together. (And just wait until Frankie Rodriguez starts blowing saves!)

But don't worry... the Mets are playing the Nationals. That will turn things around for them.

They've NEVER had trouble beating the Nationals when they needed a win.

Oh wait.

I wonder what Marlin fans think of the Beckett/Hernandez match up

As the Red Sox and the Twins finish their series this afternoon at Fenway, I can't help but wonder what real Marlin fans think about the match up.

Josh Beckett and Livan Hernandez...
2003 World Series MVP versus the 1997 NLCS and World Series MVP.

The man who shut down the Cubs and then clinched the World Series at Yankee Stadium against the big guy who kept winning games with the help of his nasty stuff and Eric Gregg's strike zone which was as wide as... well.... Eric Gregg.

Is their nostalgia?
Is their bitterness?
Is their resignation?

Or have you all just moved on?

Is that part of being a Marlins fan? Knowing that the post season heroes will go away?
Or are you more concerned with Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez et al getting THEIR World Series rings before leaving town?

Sully Baseball is just curious

Well... at least my dad is happy the Rockies won

I told my dad that I was rooting for a 7 game NLCS, thinking he would agree with me. My dad is a big Giants fan and follows the NL West closely, so why wouldn't he want the Championship Series to come down to a Game 7 showdown.

So I was surprised when he said to me "I want the Rockies to sweep."

At first I thought he was getting swept up in the feel good story of the Rockies winning 19 out of 20 games.

But then I remembered... there are some baseball names that should never be mentioned in the prescience of my father. (And I'm no different... just try to say the words "Don" and "Zimmer" with me in the room and watch me turn red.)

Well, the Diamondbacks have one of those people for my dad.
My dad has been a loyal Giants fan since before the days of Willie Mays. He hasn't seen the Giants win a World Series since 1954 when he was... well... a lot younger than he is now.

The Giants had no better chance to win it all than 2002 in the World Series with the Angels. The Giants blew a 5-0 lead in a potential clinching game 6 but there was still a game 7 to play. Dusty Baker had two pitchers to chose from for game 7:

14 game winner Kirk "Woody" Reuter, who pitched 6 solid innings in the Giants' game 4 win.

16 game loser Livan Hernandez who got clubbed in game 3 by the Angels.

Guess who Baker chose? Yup, Livan.
His decision was partly based on his "big game background" and he was indeed the NLCS and World Series MVP for the Marlins in 1997.

But his 15 strikeout performance in the NLCS was aided by the fact that Eric Gregg's strikezone 14 feet wide and 28 feet high.

And his World Series MVP was a joke. Yeah he went 2-0.... he also had a 5.27 ERA. Safe to say he had a lot of run support.

But Livan got the game ball... and from the first inning it looked like a horrible idea.

In the first inning he walked two, let up a sacrifice and got out of the inning without a run only because David Eckstein was caught napping and doubled off at second on a line drive to center.

Anyone watching the game saw he was wild and getting hit hard. It was the luckiest scoreless inning. I thought "OK, bring in Reuter and have him pitch NOW!"

Even McCarver and Buck were commenting "They can't keep Hernandez in here much longer."

The Giants scored in the second on a Sanders sacrifice fly and now there was a lead to protect.

Livan coughed the lead up the very next inning. The score was 1-1 after 2... and it was clear to anyone watching that the Angels were literally licking their chops walking up to the plate.

For some reason that historians, philosophers and poets for generations will never be able to figure out... Hernandez came out to start the third. He didn't retire a batter.

SINGLE
SINGLE
HIT BATTER
BASES CLEARING 3 RUN DOUBLE.
INTENTIONAL WALK.

And thus his night ended. Angels led 4-1.

The next inning Reuter started.
He pitched 4 innings of 1 hit shut out baseball.

Game 7 of the 2002 World Series ended 4-1... just as Livan Hernandez left it.
Hernandez record in the 2002 World Series?
0-2 with a 14.29 ERA.

My dad has never forgiven Livan for his miserable performance and keeping the Giants from their best chance in 40 years to win a World Series in San Francisco.

Which brings us full circle back to the 2007 NLCS.
Guess who the game 3 pitcher for the Diamondbacks is?

Livan Hernandez.






And my dad wants a Colorado sweep.

Grudges die hard.